As the trial for Sam Bankman-Fried begins this week, the cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting the verdict. Will Bankman-Fried be found guilty or not guilty? As the trial progresses, speculators are using the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket to bet on the potential outcome.
Cryptocurrency Speculators Use Polymarket to Bet on Bankman-Fried’s Trial
This week, Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) trial began with jury selection, opening statements and witness testimony. Witnesses, including a trader from the U.K. and former colleagues, have testified against him. Notable testimonies came from former FTX chief technology officer and co-founder Gary Wang and former FTX developer Adam Yedidia. The trial is expected to continue for several weeks, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are using the decentralized prediction market Polymarket to bet on specific outcomes.
For example, as the court listened to testimonies from Yedidia and Wang, Polymarket users are betting on whether former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison will testify. Currently, the market indicates an 86% chance that Ellison will testify, while 14% believe she won’t. Another betting market, titled “Will Bankman-Fried Testify,” shows a 69% chance he will testify and a 31% chance he won’t.
There’s also a bet on whether Bankman-Fried will be found guilty on all charges. Currently, Polymarket odds indicate a 54% chance he will be. Conversely, people can bet $0.46 that he will not be found guilty on all charges. Another bet, titled “SBF Guilty of Any Charges,” shows a 90% chance he will be found guilty of at least one charge. Those who believe he will be acquitted of all charges can bet $0.10.
While prediction markets aren’t always accurate, they offer insight into public sentiment. The theory is that the combined knowledge of many individuals can provide accurate predictions about future events. Research has shown that prediction markets can be very accurate, often more so than individual experts or polls.
Prediction markets have long been used to bet on future events, such as elections, sports games or financial market trends. With Polymarket, market prices show the current odds of an event occurring. Participants can buy outcome shares for less than $1, which can be traded anytime and are worth $1 if the predicted outcome is correct.
What do you think about the speculators betting on the SBF trial via Polymarket? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.