BTC price to six figures next cycle?
As BTC price action circles its highest levels in 18 months, forecasters are already considering how high it could go in the coming months and even years.
After the next block subsidy halving in April 2024, targets include $130,000, with late 2025 a popular deadline for the next cycle top.
Terminal Price is calculated from Bitcoin’s so-called Transferred Price — a value derived by dividing Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) by the existing supply.
CDD is a popular metric which measures how many dormant days are reset each time an amount of BTC moves on-chain. It is useful as a gauge of hodler intent and activity.
Not every all-time high reaches Terminal Price, but BTC/USD did hit the trendline during its 2017 all-time and initial peak in April 2021. The current all-time high of $69,000, seen in November that year, fell short.
Swift thus suggested that selling “near” Terminal Price would be a suitable policy. Its bear market counterpart, Balanced Price, likewise signals useful market bottoms.
Buy near Balanced Price, sell near Terminal Price.
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) November 10, 2023
As Terminal Price increases with time, $110,000 may ultimately end up a conservative target should the next all-time high occur only in later in the next cycle.
Waiting on a Pi Cycle crossover
In further analysis this week, Swift also highlighted the Pi Cycle Top indicator as providing reliable long-term high estimates.
Pi uses two moving averages for its forecasts, with their crossovers heralding the next high — albeit with the just days’ notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top indicator caught so many off-guard last cycle, including myself, by perfectly identifying the top…again! Will it identify the bitcoin top again this cycle?” Swift queried.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.