An unimpressive weekly close sets the tone for the culmination of a traditionally lackluster month for BTC price action.
Having shaken off a hectic week of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin has plenty more to weather before September is over. United States gross domestic product figures for Q2 will come on Sept. 28, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data following the day after.
The highlight, however, will likely come in the form of a speech from Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, a week after it opted to hold U.S. interest rates at current elevated levels.
Inflation remains a major talking point into Q4, and Bitcoin still lacks direction as week after week goes by without a clear upward or downward trend emerging.
Will this week be different? The countdown to the monthly close is on.
BTC price weekly chart prints “death cross”
BTC price performance, while steady over the weekend, deteriorated after the Sep. 24 weekly close.
BTC/USD took a trip to $26,000, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, with this level still managing to hold as support at the time of writing prior to the week’s first Wall Street open.
Eyeing the state of play on exchanges, commentators noted liquidations occurring for both long and short BTC positions.
Both sides almost liquidated.
— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) September 24, 2023
Bitcoin is still near two-week lows, bolstering arguments from already cautious analysts over what might come next.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued to track what he suggested could be a repeat of previous BTC price behavior. 2023, he argued at the weekend, might end up looking just like 2019 — its counterpart from last cycle.
In subsequent debate on X, Rekt Capital put the potential fractal downside target at near $20,000.
Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, meanwhile spied a so-called “death cross” on weekly timeframes.
Here, the falling 21-week simple moving average (SMA) has crossed under its rising 200-week counterpart — a phenomenon which highlights the comparative weakness of recent price action.
Uploading a chart showing a downside warning from Material Indicators’ proprietary price tools, Alan added that this would be invalidated should BTC/USD reclaim $26,500.
Any questions? pic.twitter.com/aBa64Be56D
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) September 25, 2023
A more optimistic take came from trader and analyst Credible Crypto, who believed a rebalancing of market composition would result in a return to $27,000.
“This latest push down looks to be manipulation to the downside (red square) prior to expansion to the upside. 27k incoming imo.”
September 2023 clings to “green” status
Despite the overnight weakness, Bitcoin remains in the black for September overall — a rare feat by historical standards.
While this seems modest compared to the volatility normally seen with the pair, September usually forms a bearish prelude to more substantial upside traditionally seen in the month of October.
2023 is thus still on track to be Bitcoin’s strongest September performance for seven years.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested the start of next month could provide the fuel for the total crypto market cap to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
“I think it’s just a matter of time until we flip above it. Probably 1-2 weeks if Ethereum ETF Futures could be approved and Uptober begins.”
Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA continues to act as support, and currently sits at $25,700.
PCE data, Fed’s Powell headline macro week
Revised U.S. Q2 GDP precedes comments from Fed Chair Powell, as well as five other speakers including Governor Lisa Cook later on Sep. 28. Markets, as ever, will be closely watching the language used — especially by Powell — to determine how future economic policy might play out.
PCE data will come a day later, this known to be one of the Fed’s preferred gauges for measuring inflation trends.
“Very busy week just as volatility has returned,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X outlook.
The return of volatility is fantastic news for traders.
More Fed uncertainty is back and we are ready for it.
We’re publishing our trades for the week shortly.
In 2022, our calls made 86%.
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— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 24, 2023
Prior to the data and Fed speakers, markets are pricing in a 75% chance that interest rates stay anchored at present levels at the next decision meeting in November, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Waiting in the wings before that, meanwhile, is the threat of a fresh U.S. government shutdown over budget wrangling. Politicians have until Oct. 2 to avert one, notes pro-Bitcoin commercial litigator Joe Carlasare.
Major October Catalysts (Part 2)
Predictive markets now anticipate a 70% of a Government Shutdown on October 2.
Millions of federal workers face delayed paychecks when the government shuts down, including many of the roughly 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million… pic.twitter.com/XTrt0g06t2
— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) September 24, 2023
Analysis dismisses BTC exchange balance drop
For Willy Woo, creator of statistics platform Woobull, the “synthetic” nature of exchanges’ BTC balances means that their multi-year decline does not represent the BTC supply becoming more illiquid or scarce.
“This happened all through the 2022 bear. There’s no supply shock because synthetic BTC via futures markets added to inventory. The market made a bottom when futures markets relented.”
Woo argued that the approval of a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund, or ETF, in the U.S. would go some way to “rectify” the problem.
Futures, he added were the elephant in the room which skewed his own perspective of the market at the start of 2022 — before BTC/USD hit two-year lows of $15,600 in November.
“I saw the market bullish in early 2022 by reading on-chain (spot) flows as bullish, all the while the leviathan of futures impact was saying the opposite,” he admitted.
Bitcoin offers “fascinating” 2020 similarities
Among them is the popular trader and analyst known as Moustache, who now believes that current levels could represent the last chance to “buy the dip” on BTC in 2023.
Uploading a chart comparing the status quo to that of 2020, Moustache additionally noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI).
Isn’t it fascinating?
Perhaps the last “buy the dip” opportunity in 2023. pic.twitter.com/1S88g4Nc4x
— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) September 22, 2023
He subsequently gave significance on the 200-week EMA holding as support.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.