21Shares published its mid-year crypto market report on June 24, reviewing its December forecasts and Bitcoin’s current cycle. The Zurich-based asset manager said Bitcoin’s post-halving price action still looks familiar despite the sharp decline from last year’s high. Its base case places Bitcoin near $100,000 by year-end after the asset peaked near $126,000 in October 2025. The review also covered crypto ETP flows, prediction markets, DeFi, Ethereum scaling, and tokenized assets across public and permissioned networks.
Bitcoin Pullback Tracks Earlier Halving Cycles
Bitcoin traded around $62,300 on Wednesday, leaving it about 50% below the record level reached in October 2025. 21Shares said the decline continues to follow a pattern seen after earlier halving events, when rallies cooled before later recoveries. The firm also noted that the current downturn remains smaller than the 80% corrections seen in past cycles.
The report said Bitcoin has stayed above its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000 through the latest drawdown. That level matters because earlier market downturns often included a break below investor cost basis before sentiment stabilized. 21Shares described the current structure as a more mature market supported by steadier capital flows.
The asset manager’s year-end base case places Bitcoin near $100,000, despite the weakness since the October peak. That forecast assumes the market continues to avoid a deeper capitulation phase and keeps long-term holders engaged. The report did not frame the target as certain, but used it as a central scenario for the current cycle.
Key Insights
- 21Shares says Bitcoin’s post-halving pullback still follows familiar cycle patterns from earlier market periods closely.
- The firm keeps a $100,000 Bitcoin year-end base case after last year’s $126,000 record peak.
- Global crypto ETP assets stood near $140 billion, while structures held 1.25 million BTC globally.
- Prediction markets recorded $57.5 billion in volume through May, exceeding half the annual forecast target.
- Tokenized assets reached $31 billion on public blockchains; permissioned networks mirrored $350 billion total value.
Crypto ETP Assets Hold Near Cycle Highs
21Shares also reviewed crypto exchange-traded product activity as part of its mid-year market audit. Global crypto ETP assets under management stood near $140 billion as of May 2026, down about 15% year-to-date. Total ETP structures held around 1.25 million BTC, which remained nearly 8% below earlier peak levels.
The firm linked the AUM decline mainly to price movements rather than broad investor exits. It noted that underlying Bitcoin allocations stayed close to cycle highs, even after about $3 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This data separated asset values from coin balances, showing that holdings remained firm despite weaker market prices.
The report also pointed to new listed products beyond spot Bitcoin exposure. Hyperliquid-linked ETFs attracted about $150 million during their first month of trading. 21Shares said these launches showed continued demand for crypto products tied to newer market areas.
DeFi, Prediction Markets, and Tokenization Remain Mixed
Beyond Bitcoin, the report tracked activity across decentralized finance, prediction markets, Ethereum scaling, and tokenized assets. Prediction markets recorded $57.5 billion in trading volume through the end of May. That total stood above half of 21Shares’s full-year forecast and placed annual volume near a possible $100 billion pace.
DeFi total value locked remained near $140 billion, which stayed far below the firm’s $300 billion forecast. The report cited security incidents as a main barrier limiting stronger capital inflows into decentralized finance protocols. Ethereum Layer 2 activity also showed concentration, with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism holding about 83% of Layer 2 DeFi TVL.
Tokenized assets on public blockchains reached $31 billion, including about $15 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasurys. Assets mirrored on permissioned institutional networks, including Canton, reached roughly $350 billion. The mid-year report placed these areas beside Bitcoin’s recovery outlook, as 21Shares maintained a $100,000 year-end base case.
