Ammous Warns Bitcoin Treasuries May Lag Strategy’s Performance

Bitcoin treasury companies built around accumulating and holding the cryptocurrency face a tough competitive landscape, economist Saifedean Ammous argues—especially when compared with Strategy, the corporate vehicle led by Michael Saylor.

In a recent episode of Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis, Ammous said he sees “a compelling case” primarily for Strategy, pointing to its scale and balance-sheet resources as decisive advantages for financing, dividend coverage, and resilience during drawdowns. The comments come as Strategy continues to operate its Bitcoin-as-treasury-reserve model amid ongoing volatility in the underlying asset.

Key takeaways

• Ammous believes Strategy’s size and cash reserves give it an edge over smaller Bitcoin treasury companies, particularly during periods of large Bitcoin declines.
• Strategy’s latest 8-K filing cites 847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion, alongside a $5.02 billion US dollar reserve tied to preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
• Strategy’s funding approach drew attention earlier this year when Bitcoin traded below $60,000 and its STRC preferred stock fell well under its $100 target price.
• Ammous expects more businesses to adopt the practice of placing surplus cash into Bitcoin, while still warning that holding Bitcoin indirectly through Strategy carries risks.
• He suggested Bitcoin’s next cycle could peak in 2029, with another crash still possible, and gave only a cautious estimate for a 2030 price outcome.

Why Ammous sees Strategy as the standout

Ammous’ main argument is comparative: Bitcoin treasury businesses that buy and hold may struggle to compete with Strategy because Strategy can access capital at lower rates and has a financial cushion during stress. He emphasized that past drawdowns have not brought the company close to liquidation—an important distinction for investors who care about survivability as much as ultimate upside.

The economist also tied Strategy’s resilience to its financing structure. According to Strategy’s Monday 8-K filing, the company reported the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, with 847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion. The filing also reports a $5.02 billion US dollar reserve intended to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest.

Cash coverage and the STRC test during market stress

Strategy’s approach has faced renewed scrutiny during periods of falling Bitcoin prices. Earlier this summer, when Bitcoin moved below $60,000, market participants focused on the performance of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, which traded far below its stated target price of $100.

During that period, Strategy increased STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12%, repurchased shares, and built its cash reserve. The company also sold some Bitcoin to help fund dividends and repurchases before resuming its Bitcoin accumulation, according to the coverage referenced in the original discussion. Ammous interpreted this as evidence that Strategy can meet payment obligations even after significant market drawdowns.

“Even a much bigger Bitcoin drawdown is going to leave them in a decent situation because they have enough cash on hand to make their payments,” he said in the episode.

How businesses could apply the “treasury” model

Ammous framed Strategy’s model as something that can fit corporate finance—provided businesses treat Bitcoin as a reserve rather than working capital. He argued that companies with positive cash flow can allocate surplus funds into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset, while keeping separate liquidity for day-to-day operations.

He explicitly suggested that more firms should consider this approach. “I think pretty much every business should be doing this,” Ammous said, while drawing a clear boundary between reserves intended to sit for extended periods and the cash needed for daily, weekly, and monthly expenses.

At the same time, he cautioned that investing in Strategy is not without risks and said he personally prefers holding Bitcoin directly rather than relying on a corporate intermediary. For investors, that distinction matters: Strategy’s corporate structure, preferred stock dynamics, and financing mechanisms can influence outcomes even if the underlying thesis is Bitcoin ownership.

Cycle expectations: another drop, then a 2029 peak?

Beyond corporate treasuries, Ammous also addressed where Bitcoin may be headed next. He suggested Bitcoin has likely already bottomed, but stressed that another crash remains possible and could still push prices lower.

He then offered a longer-range view, saying Bitcoin’s next cycle may peak in 2029, with prices largely rising leading up to that point. He added that smaller drawdowns could make Bitcoin more appealing to large asset managers over time, as memories of prior bear markets fade.

When asked for a 2030 price estimate, Ammous pointed to the Bitcoin power-law model and offered a figure near the lower end of the range he referenced—roughly $200,000. He also tempered the idea by saying, “I wouldn’t bet on it.”

Investors watching this space may want to track two parallel developments: whether Strategy’s balance-sheet resilience continues to hold up during volatility in Bitcoin, and whether other firms genuinely adopt the same surplus-cash-to-Bitcoin playbook. Just as importantly, Ammous’ remarks underline that even if a bottom has formed, markets can still test conviction again before any next cycle peak arrives.