Analyst: Best Bitcoin accumulation thesis despite downside risk

Bitcoin is flashing a curious mix of stress and accumulation as momentum indicators grind to historic lows while on-chain data shows steady purchasing across a broad spectrum of holders. With the daily and two-week RSI at unprecedented lows, analysts say the brewing combination could shore up a long-term buying thesis even as near-term volatility persists.

Over the past two months, wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have added roughly 53,000 BTC, underscoring sustained demand among larger, non-retail investors. At the same time, smaller retail participants have been stepping up, supporting a broader-based accumulation narrative that several observers describe as the strongest signal for a secular BTC bid in years.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s lowest readings ever on the two-week and daily RSI coincide with ongoing on-chain accumulation across multiple investor cohorts.
• Smaller holders are among the most active buyers, with the Accumulation Trend Score pointing to the highest activity among wallets under 0.1 BTC (0.78) and those in the 10–100 BTC range (0.71), according to Glassnode data via CryptoQuant.
• Over 60 days, large collectors in the 1,000–10,000 BTC band added 53,042 BTC, while mid-sized wallets (100–1,000 BTC) added 12,233 BTC and 10–100 BTC wallets added 1,283 BTC. In contrast, the largest address class (>10,000 BTC) reduced holdings by 39,840 BTC, and some 1–10 BTC addresses trimmed exposure.
• Analysts frame potential bottom zones using price-structure tools: a quarterly fair value gap (FVG) spanning roughly $56,800 to $44,600 could prove pivotal if downside pressure resumes.
• Long-term valuation signals from the CVDD method suggest a floor around $46,000, with a potential bottom in the $52,000–$59,000 range if the pattern repeats from prior cycle lows.

BTC accumulation grows across key cohorts

Prominent crypto strategist Michael van de Poppe underscored Bitcoin’s troubling momentum readings as a rare but potentially constructive setup for the patient investor. “The lowest Bitcoin read on the 2-Week RSI, and Daily RSI EVER. That’s the best thesis for accumulating and buying your Bitcoin,” van de Poppe said, noting that panic-driven selling could persist but may yield meaningful buying opportunities for long-horizon participants.

On-chain signals bolster the case for a broad-based accumulation narrative. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score—arranged in part through CryptoQuant’s dashboard—highlights the strongest buying activity among smaller holders and select mid-sized investors. Wallets with less than 0.1 BTC carry a score of 0.78, the highest among tracked cohorts, while the 10–100 BTC cohort sits at 0.71, indicating consistent purchasing pressure spread across these groups.

Meanwhile, activity among larger holders presents a mixed picture. In the last 60 days, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC added 53,042 BTC—the largest increase observed across the cohorts. The 100–1,000 BTC band contributed another 12,233 BTC, and the 10–100 BTC tier added 1,283 BTC. This pattern suggests sustained demand from both notable non-whale actors and a broad swath of mid-sized holders.

Yet the largest entities pulled back. Addresses with more than 10,000 BTC reduced balances by 39,840 BTC in the same timeframe. The smaller 1–10 BTC group also trimmed exposure, painting a nuanced picture: whales below the top tier remain engaged, while larger holders weighed the current price action differently. Taken together, the data points to a mixed but constructive on-chain stance where non-whale and retail accumulation sits alongside selective whale activity.

Bottom prospects and price-structure signals

Beyond raw accumulation, market technicians are eyeing potential bottom zones through price-structure lenses. Titan of Crypto highlighted a quarterly fair value gap (FVG) that sits between roughly $56,800 and $44,600. An FVG marks a price region left with relatively sparse trading following sharp moves, which often serves as a magnet for price action as markets seek balance after volatility.

The quarterly chart framework also notes that Bitcoin has revisited similar imbalance regions after major cycles in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2020 before forming a bottom. The latest gap, formed in 2024, remains unfilled and thus could play a critical role if the current correction resumes. In other words, the $56,800–$44,600 range stands out as a meaningful bracket to monitor as downside risk unfolds.

Adding to the valuation dialogue, Rafael, a co-founder of Glassnode, cited Bitcoin’s cumulative value days destroyed-to-price ratio (CVDD). The CVDD framework compares the market price to a cost-basis floor derived from coin-holding behavior, offering a long-horizon lens on fair value. The current CVDD standing sits near 0.73, a level that historically rises toward 1.0 near major cycle bottoms. If this dynamic plays out again, the CVDD would imply a potential bottom in the vicinity of $52,000–$59,000, with a floor around $46,000 anchored by the on-chain cost basis.

In sum, the combination of pronounced RSI weakness, broad on-chain accumulation, and structural price gaps provides a multi-faceted framework for identifying potential bottoming conditions. While there is no single signal guaranteeing a turnaround, the alignment of retail and mid-sized buyer activity with historically meaningful price imbalances and valuation anchors strengthens the case for a patient, cautious approach to BTC exposure in the near term.

What to watch next for BTC traders and investors

As markets digest the current mix of on-chain signals and macro cues, traders should monitor whether the current accumulation persists in the face of renewed volatility. If the FVG remains unfilled and the CVDD continues to approach prior bottom-like thresholds, the case for a structural trough could tighten. Conversely, a decisive break below the lower end of the FVG or a sustained divergence in on-chain activity could complicate the setup.

Investors may find value in watching how smaller and mid-sized holders respond to any renewed price weakness, as their current activity levels serve as a counterpoint to the behavior of the largest wallets. The coming weeks will be telling for whether the observed accumulation translates into sustained price support or whether macro headwinds will drive another leg lower.

Related coverage continues to track how macro flows, ETF activity, and exchange dynamics interplay with on-chain signals as Bitcoin navigates the current corrective phase.

Readers should stay attentive to further breakdowns of the accumulation data by cohort and to any shifts in the CVDD signal as new price data emerge—these elements will help frame possible routes for BTC in the months ahead.

Sources: Glassnode (Accumulation Trend Score), CryptoQuant dashboard, on-chain wallet data; statements and analyses from Michael van de Poppe; Titan of Crypto; Rafael (Glassnode co-founder) on X.