Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Decline, Bottom Seen in October 2026

Bitcoin could bottom near $57,000 in October 2026, according to Michael Terpin, a veteran crypto investor and author. The digital asset has risen more than 29% from February’s dip around $60,000 and was trading near $78,000 as this week unfolded. Terpin’s view rests on a historical pattern: the typical one-year drawdown from a market-cycle peak, which he says occurred in October 2025 when BTC briefly topped above $126,000.

For a renewed bull market to gain traction, Terpin argues that BTC must reclaim the $100,000 level. He contends that such a move would likely materialize only if the price falls decisively below the 200-week moving average, a dynamic support commonly watched by longer-term traders. In his words, there’s “a chance of $100,000 this year, but unlikely. It would need to combine strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying with what Michael Saylor is already doing at Strategy, combined with an absence of liquidations from a sharp move down.”

Michael Terpin expects Bitcoin to bottom out around the $57,000 level. Source: TradingView

The current backdrop features BTC hovering near $78,000 amid a mix of macro headwinds and liquidity constraints. Oil price volatility remains a factor for risk assets, while geopolitical dynamics and a steady-rate environment in the United States have contributed to cautious crypto sentiment. The market continues to weigh the possibility of further liquidity shifts and the pace of institutional participation as the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady for now.

Key takeaways

• Terpin’s cycle-based bottom forecast places BTC at roughly $57,000 in October 2026, anchored by the observed one-year drawdown from a cycle top around $126,000 in October 2025.
• A renewed bull run hinges on reclaiming $100,000, with a realistic pathway seen only if BTC can dip below the 200-week moving average and avoid forced liquidations amid ETF-driven demand and bullish strategic moves.
• The near-term price path remains uncertain. Analysts flag the potential for a retest toward the mid-to-high $70,000s or lower, with a possible slide toward the $73,000 zone in the short term.
• The market’s tone ahead of the FOMC meeting is mixed. CME data show about 99.5% of traders expect no rate cut, reinforcing caution around a sustained rally without macro-driven support.
• Analysts caution that the recent rally could be a false signal, highlighting the risk of another leg lower by October if macro conditions and market internals don’t improve.

Macro context and the near-term path

As Bitcoin oscillates around the high $70,000s, the broader macro landscape continues to shape its trajectory. Traders and analysts point to a confluence of factors: oil price volatility, geopolitical developments described as a “war in Iran” in some coverage, and persistent liquidity concerns that have kept risk assets from staging a robust breakout. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady has contributed to a cautious mood, with market participants awaiting clearer signals on inflation and policy direction.

Ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market’s expectations reflect a near-consensus view that policy will remain unchanged for the time being. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a near-unanimous tilt toward no rate cut in the near term, underscoring a backdrop that could limit immediate upside for crypto markets without a new wave of positive macro catalysts. “Wednesday is (Jerome) Powell’s almost certain last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. The rate decision is almost certainly a hold flat,” commented market analyst Nic Puckrin, underscoring the ongoing regime of cautious liquidity and macrodriven risk-off sentiment.

Some observers describe the current rally as lacking the exuberance typically associated with a fresh uptrend. Crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland noted that Bitcoin’s price action since February has not generated the broad consensus among investors that usually accompanies a sustained bull run. “It does appear to me the larger expected consensus outcome for BTC is another leg lower by October,” Hyland said, signaling that a larger downside could be on the horizon despite the momentum seen in recent weeks.

Short-term risk assessments point to potential downside scenarios. If the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to act as a resistance barrier, some analysts anticipate a retracement toward roughly $65,700 before any meaningful upside, with a possible dip toward the $73,000 area in a more immediate horizon. The interplay between moving-average dynamics and macro cues remains a key supply of uncertainty for traders seeking to time a durable bottom.

What this means for investors and developers

Terpin’s cycle-based perspective emphasizes how cyclicality—rather than purely macro promises or herd sentiment—could shape BTC’s intermediate-term path. For investors, the scenario suggests a cautious stance: a potential retest of trend supports before any decisive upside, and a reminder that longer-term trend reversals often require compelling fundamental catalysts beyond a single rally leg.

From a market structure standpoint, the possibility of renewed ETF buying remains a focal point. If investor demand accelerates through regulated vehicles, and if notable holders continue to deploy capital strategically, BTC could carve a new path back toward the $100,000 mark. However, the path would likely be non-linear, with retracements and tests of major moving averages—particularly the 200-week MA—serving as critical waypoints for bulls and bears alike.

For traders, the near-term chart setup remains delicate. The risk-reward balance hinges on macro developments, liquidity conditions, and how effectively Bitcoin can hold above key support lines. The contrast between a potential short-term pullback toward the mid-$70,000s and a longer-term base around the $57,000–$60,000 region creates a wide spectrum of possible outcomes. Market watchers will be paying close attention to how the price behaves around the 21-week EMA and whether any sustained break below that threshold precedes a deeper correction.

Beyond Bitcoin itself, the discourse highlights a broader theme for the crypto market: the degree to which institutional participation, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic signals align to drive durable uptrends. If the coming quarters bring clearer policy paths and more robust ETF inflows, the probability of re-anchoring around the $100k level could increase. Conversely, a continuation of liquidity constraints or policy surprises could extend the bear phase and push BTC toward lower support zones.

For readers tracking the narrative, the next set of data points—macro inflation readings, the Fed’s communications, ETF allocation trends, and on-chain dynamics—will be instrumental in assessing whether Terpin’s scenario plays out or if alternative pathways emerge. Notably, market commentary and price targets in recent coverage point to a potential return to downside rather than an immediate, sustained breakout, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management in the near term. For example, prior visuals discussing BTC price action and potential near-term targets have highlighted the risks around a possible move down toward the 73,000 level and the influence of the weekly trend line on price action.

In parallel, traders and analysts continue to weigh the potential implications of a prolonged pause in rate cuts, the evolution of ETF demand, and the ongoing balance between retail and institutional participation. As always, the crypto market remains sensitive to shifting liquidity environments and macro headlines, which can abruptly alter the tactical picture for Bitcoin and the wider digital-asset space.

As the cycle framework suggests a longer horizon, investors would do well to monitor the 200-week moving average, ETF liquidity signals, and the macro policy backdrop as pivotal inputs for determining whether a new leg higher can gain traction or if a renewed downside bias resumes into late 2026.

Readers should stay tuned to subsequent market developments and the evolving regulatory and liquidity landscape, which will help clarify whether Terpin’s bottom-line forecast holds or if new catalysts emerge to reframe BTC’s trajectory.