Arthur Hayes Backs ETH as He Sees a Potential $1M Bitcoin Target by 2030

Bitcoin still has the ingredients for a major upside move in the coming years, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says, but he is not waiting to express that view through BTC alone. In a recent episode of Trade Secrets, Hayes argued that macro conditions could set the stage for a “seven-figure” outcome by 2030—while also saying he is currently positioning with Ethereum because he sees a faster, cleaner risk-reward profile.

Hayes’ comments arrive amid competing perspectives in the market. Earlier in the same show, Markus Thielen of 10x Research said that reaching $1 million for Bitcoin by 2030 is “mathematically impossible,” pointing to how prior inflow dynamics may not repeat at the scale required over the next four years. Hayes disagreed on the underlying premise, citing a different set of macro drivers.

Key takeaways

• Arthur Hayes maintains Bitcoin could revisit “seven figures” by 2030, framing the setup around liquidity and macro policy rather than only spot demand.
• Despite his bullish Bitcoin view, Hayes says he is buying ETH now, expecting ETH could “3x to 5x” relatively quickly.
• Hayes is less enthusiastic about Hyperliquid’s upside, arguing that high expectations reduce asymmetry for new capital.
• Regarding BitMEX, Hayes said the exchange’s shutdown feels positive because it is being ended “on our own terms,” not due to a hack.

Why Hayes thinks Bitcoin can reach $1 million by 2030

Hayes’ forecast centers on what he describes as a cluster of catalysts rather than a single metric. In his view, the collapse of the AI bubble, broad monetary expansion (“massive” money printing), and the possibility of US yield curve control are among the factors that could support a sustained risk-on cycle.

He also suggested the recent market low may already be in. Hayes claimed that $58,000 was “probably the bottom” for Bitcoin and that prices could then “grind higher,” describing the current environment as a “hate fuck rally.”

The key point for readers is that Hayes is not simply calling for a momentum trade. His argument is that macro liquidity conditions can reshape the demand curve for Bitcoin in ways that outperform the expectations embedded in more capital-demand-focused models.

That framing matters because Thielen’s counterargument—delivered only weeks earlier on the same show—took the opposite approach. Thielen argued the inflow magnitude needed to reach $1 million is so large that it cannot be supported by the scale of capital Bitcoin attracted over the prior 15 years. In other words, one side is modeling capacity for incremental inflows, while Hayes is betting on the potential for macro policy to accelerate the entire inflow regime.

Hayes shifts focus from Hyperliquid to Ethereum

While Hayes remains constructive on Bitcoin, he said he is less confident about the upside profile of Hyperliquid. He argued that the market already knows the project exists and has priced it with “massive expectations,” which reduces the kind of “asymmetry” that makes a trade compelling for large capital allocations.

Hayes added that his own allocation decision is also about opportunity cost—stating that there may be “better risk-reward” for Maelstrom Capital to deploy into the broader “shitcoin space” than to focus on Hyperliquid when expectations are already elevated.

The comments came shortly after US President Donald Trump said the United States is working to bring Hyperliquid into the country. Hayes, who was pardoned by Trump in 2024, dismissed the idea that presidential statements can directly drive crypto asset prices. He suggested that the real determinants are the Treasury, the Fed, and other monetary authorities, rather than political messaging.

“It’s irrelevant” to Hayes: politics versus monetary policy

Hayes argued that what a politician says may be “entertaining,” but it does not necessarily translate into price moves. He also questioned whether Trump would expend political capital to move crypto legislation—specifically mentioning the CLARITY Act—given competing priorities and what he characterized as low voter interest.

For market participants, the takeaway is not that politics never matters, but that Hayes’ lens prioritizes macro policy mechanisms over headline risk. In that framework, short-term announcements may move narratives, while longer-term monetary conditions decide whether the broader market can sustain new highs.

BitMEX shutdown: Hayes says the exchange “landed the plane”

Hayes also addressed BitMEX, the derivatives exchange he co-founded in 2014 with Ben Dolo and Samuel Reed. BitMEX recently announced it would shut down on Sept. 23 and urged users to close positions and withdraw funds ahead of the deadline. Hayes said he “feels excellent” about the shutdown precisely because it is happening under the company’s control.

He told Trade Secrets that the exchange is ending “on our own terms,” and emphasized that it was not shut down because of a hack. He described the situation as “landing the plane” in a controlled manner.

He also used the moment to argue that running a crypto exchange has become extremely difficult. In his assessment, competition is so intense and operating costs so high—especially around security and the infrastructure required for data centers—that the business case no longer works unless a firm has the scale of major players such as Binance or OKX. For entrepreneurs and operators, that is an important signal: even well-known platforms may conclude that the cost of survival exceeds the upside of growth.

Ethereum as the “number one pick” for now

Hayes’ sharpest actionable point was his current preference for Ethereum. He called ETH his “number one pick” at the moment, saying it offers a better risk-reward setup than Hyperliquid for a “spare unit” of fiat to deploy into crypto.

In his outlook, Ethereum has room to move quickly. Hayes said he expects ETH could do “3x to 5x pretty quickly,” adding that Hyperliquid may still rise, but he does not view it as positioned for a similar multiple.

Hayes also offered a structural rationale: Ethereum is the base layer for DeFi, and while it has been “hated” for various reasons, it is “long overdue” for a broader performance cycle. He pointed to a concrete linkage between ETH and Bitcoin’s momentum, noting ETH’s reaction when Bitcoin rallied—specifically saying he saw ETH “rip 20%” when Bitcoin did.

“Everybody hates it. It’s the one megacap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high.”

For investors, the practical implication is that Hayes is effectively rotating from a high-expectation high-profile trade (Hyperliquid) toward an asset he views as both structurally central and still trading below a key historical benchmark. Whether that rotation plays out will depend on how macro liquidity evolves and whether capital continues to flow into large-cap networks rather than fragmenting into newer venues.

Looking ahead, the market will likely keep watching two things in tandem: whether macro conditions that Hayes highlighted translate into sustained demand for major assets, and whether Ethereum can regain stronger relative momentum versus both Bitcoin and newer platforms. If the liquidity backdrop shifts, the debate between “inflow math” and Hayes’ macro-driven thesis may become less theoretical and more testable quickly.