- Bitcoin has gained 14% over the past week, approaching $124,000 amid a US government shutdown and macroeconomic optimism.
- On-chain data indicates strong US demand, with a $1.6 billion surge in buying activity and a Coinbase premium gap nearing 100 dollars.
- Market analysts anticipate resistance at around $130,000, with the potential for price discovery to accelerate next week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant rally over recent days, climbing roughly 14% from a low near $108,600 last Friday to trade just below $124,000. This upward momentum has the potential to push Bitcoin into new price discovery territory beyond the $125,500 mark, as the overall crypto market capitalization exceeds $4.21 trillion, reflecting broad-based strength across digital asset markets.
One notable factor behind this surge is the US government shutdown, which continues to influence markets despite investor apathy. With federal agencies furloughing staff and economic data releases delayed, market participants are uncertain about short-term policy directions. Nevertheless, Bitcoin has gained around 8% since the shutdown began, buoyed by traders positioning themselves amid the unclear policy environment. The halt also complicates Federal Reserve’s decision-making, as upcoming inflation and jobs reports could be postponed, sparking increased speculative flows into the crypto sector.
Analysts from Bitfinex commented to the press, noting,
“Bitcoin’s movement toward a new all-time high appears genuinely organic. The recent signals, including potential stimulus measures being considered by policymakers, could further propel Bitcoin prices. Similar to the post-COVID stimulus period, heightened ETF inflows and institutional interest reinforce the bullish outlook.”
Pointing to U.S. macroeconomic conditions, the analysts highlighted that “inflation is easing, and the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance supports risk appetite. As long as inflows remain steady and no unexpected macroeconomic surprises occur, the path toward new all-time Bitcoin highs in Q4 remains well supported.”
On-chain Bitcoin buying pressure intensifies
On-chain data confirms the rally is driven by persistent strong demand. Analyst Maartunn shared that there was a taker buy volume spike of over $1.6 billion across all exchanges within a single hour, demonstrating bullish buying momentum.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Gap—a metric measuring price differences between Coinbase and Binance—rose to nearly $92, the highest level since mid-August. Analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors are paying close to $92 more per Bitcoin on Coinbase, reflecting robust US-led demand.
However, the premium’s rise to current levels marks the highest since August, historically signaling a cooldown in bullish momentum if it persists.
Related: Bitcoin may face a squeeze as record $88 billion open interest raises liquidity concerns
Next week’s prospects for price discovery
With Bitcoin testing its highest levels in months, analysts forecast the potential for continued price discovery in the near term. Trader Jelle noted,
“$120,000 has become a support level today. If it holds over the weekend, I expect the price discovery to resume as early as next week.”
Similarly, trader Rekt Capital describes the current phase as “Phase 3 Price Discovery,” emphasizing the breakout stage where Bitcoin aims to establish new highs.
Additional commentary from analyst Skew pointed out that while demand remains resilient, hefty sell orders cluster around $130,000, indicating that resistance remains a critical barrier. The upcoming daily closes will be instrumental in confirming whether Bitcoin can retain its current momentum, especially with strong US inflows on Coinbase and rising “risk-on” positions on Binance. Monitoring these levels will be crucial for traders looking to gauge the next directional move.
This analysis underscores the importance of upcoming market closes and sustained demand signals for Bitcoin’s potential to break higher. As the crypto markets evolve, investors remain keenly focused on macroeconomic data and institutional flows that could further influence the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading involves risk, and investors should conduct their own research.
