Editor’s note: This announcement outlines how bitcoin’s recent price action has diverged from early expectations tied to a more crypto-friendly political environment in the United States. Despite initial optimism following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, bitcoin has fallen nearly 20% over the past three months, reflecting broader macroeconomic pressures rather than regulatory narratives. According to eToro’s analysis, bitcoin is increasingly trading as a high-liquidity risk asset, influenced by interest rates, dollar liquidity, and overall risk appetite. The commentary highlights how macro forces, not political rhetoric, are currently shaping digital asset markets.
Key points
- Bitcoin is down nearly 20% over the past three months despite a friendlier political tone toward crypto.
- Market behavior is driven by macro factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and risk sentiment.
- Gold and silver have attracted safe-haven flows, outperforming bitcoin over the past year.
- Supportive crypto policy is seen as a marginal, gradual influence rather than a short-term price catalyst.
Why this matters
The analysis underscores a shift in how bitcoin is perceived by investors, from a politically sensitive asset to one increasingly aligned with global liquidity cycles. For traders, builders, and long-term holders, this reinforces the importance of macroeconomic conditions in shaping near-term performance. In a market where institutional participation continues to grow, understanding these drivers is critical for risk management and realistic expectations around policy impact.
What to watch next
- Changes in global interest-rate expectations and dollar liquidity conditions.
- Shifts in investor risk appetite across equities, commodities, and digital assets.
- How institutional flows into bitcoin evolve relative to traditional safe-haven assets.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – January 29, 2026: While Trump’s return to the White House initially coincided with bitcoin pushing to new record highs, that early optimism has faded. Expectations of lighter regulation and a more industry-friendly stance have yet to translate into sustained upside, with bitcoin down nearly 20% over the past three months. Investors have quickly learned that supportive rhetoric alone is not enough—particularly in a market now driven by macro forces rather than internal crypto narratives.
Bitcoin is behaving less like a political trade and more like a high-liquidity risk asset, responding primarily to dollar liquidity, interest-rate expectations and broader risk sentiment. With gold absorbing much of the safe-haven demand and equities continuing to attract growth capital, there has been little urgency to rotate meaningfully into bitcoin, even against a friendlier regulatory backdrop. Gold and silver have delivered stellar performance over the past 12 months, attracting strong investor flows and generating ‘bitcoin-like’ returns that have left bitcoin trailing.
The key takeaway for investors is that friendlier crypto policy helps at the margins, but it does not override macro conditions or deliver an overnight turnaround. While Trump continues to speak positively about crypto, his focus appears to be elsewhere—ranging from geopolitics to broader economic priorities—meaning markets cannot rely on political headlines alone to drive prices higher.
Bitcoin’s long-term case remains intact, supported by structural demand and institutional participation, but in the current environment price action is being driven by liquidity and risk appetite, not politics. Any benefits from a more crypto-friendly stance are likely to materialise gradually over time rather than as an immediate boost to prices,” said Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro.
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