Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be nearing the end of its correction as a classic on-chain gauge suggests the asset is trading at a remarkable discount to the price at which most of the supply last moved. The MVRV Z-score, a metric that blends market value with realized value to indicate whether BTC is over- or undervalued, has slid to its lowest readings in a two-year rolling window. In plain terms, the current configuration suggests buyers could be entering at a price where many coins haven’t moved in a long time, a scenario that typically precedes a period of renewed demand. Prominent traders have started to connect the dots, arguing that the current configuration marks a potential inflection point rather than a continuation of the bear trend.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score is at record lows on a two-year rolling time frame, signaling possible undervaluation relative to realized value.
- Analysts argue the extreme readings could foreshadow a price recovery, particularly if demand re-enters the market as risk sentiment stabilizes.
- The metric’s current level is lower than bear-market bottoms seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID crash of 2020, and the 2022 downturn, underscoring the depth of the current phase.
- BTC briefly traded near an intra-month low around $81,000 as broad risk-off moves pressed commodities and equities, highlighting a still-turbulent macro backdrop.
- Some traders also suggested that the precious metals rally may be cooling, a sign that capital chases safety while crypto metrics flash a contrarian signal.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Market context: The emergence of an undervaluation signal from on-chain analytics comes amid a mixed risk environment where traditional assets have seen sharp drawdowns and crypto markets have oscillated between bouts of selling and tentative buying. The two-year rolling MVRV Z-score provides a counterpoint to price action, highlighting that, from a supply-weighted perspective, BTC could be pricing in a deeper discount than what price charts alone might imply. This blend of on-chain data and price action mirrors a broader market dynamic where liquidity, participant risk appetite, and macro narratives drive cycles with varying lag times.
Why it matters
On-chain metrics have long served as a counterweight to price-based narratives, offering a lens into whether the Bitcoin supply is moving in a way that supports sustainable price levels. The MVRV Z-score, in particular, has a track record of signaling turning points when it dives into the “undervalued” territory on longer horizons. The current reading, described by analyst Michaël van de Poppe as a “phenomenal chart,” is generating renewed attention on whether a broad-based bottom is forming, even as price action tests near-term support levels. The data are not a guarantee of a swift rally, but they suggest that the market may have priced in excessive fear relative to the historical move patterns of the asset, potentially setting the stage for a more constructive phase if demand returns.
“That’s how deep we’re in the bear market, and yes, we’re close to the end of it.”
The underlying data come from Glassnode’s on-chain analytics, which show the Z-score has sunk to levels not seen since the green band—the “undervalued” territory—last appeared at the end of the previous bear market in 2022. The chart traces how the realized value (the price at which coins last moved) stacks against the overall market capitalization, with the Z-score normalizing the gap by historical volatility. In practice, a deeper drop in the Z-score implies the network is changing hands at prices significantly below the price at which most coins last moved, a situation that could tempt long-term holders to capitalize on a potential rebound when confidence returns.
The broader narrative around BTC’s price action has been shaped by a run of risk-off episodes, including a recent dip that saw BTC/USD retreat to multi-month lows. Data from TradingView captured BTC at around $81,040 during a period of intense selling pressure across risk assets, a move that underscores the ongoing tug-of-war between macro caution and the allure of a contrarian on-chain signal. While the price move is real and warrants caution, the on-chain framework emphasizes that price and value can diverge in meaningful ways in the near term, particularly if market participants perceive BTC as a relatively insulated, long-horizon store of value against a backdrop of macro fragility.
In context, other corners of the market have also faced fallout from the same risk-off rumor mill. A separate piece previously highlighted a parallel narrative where the end of a gold and silver rally (or a temporary pause in those setups) could dovetail with renewed Bitcoin demand, effectively broadening the scope for a risk-off-to-risk-on transition. Taken together, the combination of heavy price moves, on-chain undervaluation signals, and shifting sentiment across risk assets paints a nuanced picture: the setup for a potential trend change exists, but timing remains uncertain and data-driven corroboration will be essential for conviction.
“I’m not saying: the bull is over. No, far from it. But it will consolidate, and that’s also the trigger you’d like to see for Bitcoin.”
The narrative surrounding BTC’s near-term path is inherently probabilistic. While the MVRV Z-score points to potential value accumulation, the confirmation may emerge only as multiple indicators align: on-chain metrics, price support tests, and macro conditions that foster sustainable demand. In the meantime, observers are paying close attention to how BTC behaves around critical levels and whether accumulation intensifies among long-term holders or new entrants re-enter the market with fresh capital. The interplay between data-driven signals and sentiment will likely shape trajectory over the coming weeks.
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