Bitcoin’s fall of around 7% to $77,000 on Saturday might have marked the low of this cycle, according to Bitcoin analyst PlanC.
It comes as other crypto analysts continue to call for further downside for Bitcoin in the coming months.
“Decent chance this will be the deepest pullback opportunity this Bitcoin bull run,” PlanC said in an X post on Saturday.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin slid about 7% to roughly $77,000 on Saturday, with a short-lived recovery pushing it toward $78,690 at the time of reporting, data from CoinMarketCap shows.
- From its all‑time peak of $126,100, the pullback amounts to roughly 38%, underscoring a bear‑market–like dynamic that traders have cited in past cycles.
- PlanC compared the current drawdown with previous crashes, citing 2018’s capitulation to $3,000, the March 2020 crash near $5,100, and the multi‑month dips during the FTX and Luna collapses, which briefly pushed BTC to the mid‑teens.
- The analyst warned that a major capitulation low could be forming, estimating a potential bottom in the $75,000–$80,000 range as the cycle unfolds.
- Other voices in the space emphasized caution: Rajat Soni cautioned against overreacting to weekend moves, while veteran traders laid out varied downside targets—Peter Brandt toward $60,000, and Benjamin Cowen pointing to an October‑time cycle low with intermittent rallies in the interim. Fidelity’s macro team also flagged a potential normalization in 2026 with possible dips toward mid‑$60k regions.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The abrupt weekend pullback highlighted risk-off sentiment and the potential for further price erosion in the near term.
Market context: The move comes amid a historically volatile phase for crypto markets, where macro uncertainty, liquidity shifts, and episodic capitulations have repeatedly punctuated price action. Analysts are weighing the probability of deeper retracements against pockets of resilience, often depending on how macro cues and on-chain dynamics evolve through the next several weeks.
Why it matters
For traders and long‑duration holders alike, the recent price action reinforces the notion that Bitcoin remains susceptible to swift, decisive moves, especially when macro bets tilt toward risk-off environments. The pullback echoes a pattern seen in prior cycles, where sharp declines have alternated with sharp rallies, testing the resolve of market participants and forcing recalibration of risk models. The interaction between spot price, derivatives funding, and on‑chain indicators will be watched closely as market participants attempt to gauge whether this week’s dip marks a temporary wobble or the onset of a more meaningful downcycle.
Analysts’ comments in the wake of Saturday’s swing illustrate a split, but converging, view: the downside risk appears elevated, yet a durable bottom remains contingent on broader signals. PlanC’s framing of the move as potentially the deepest pullback of this bull run invites a re‑examination of risk thresholds for traders who had positioned for renewed momentum. At the same time, voices like Rajat Soni urge restraint, warning that weekend pumps and dumps can mislead and that Bitcoin’s eventual rebound may come when sentiment has already priced in a portion of the downside.
Meanwhile, a chorus of forecasts from veteran market watchers keeps the dialogue alive. Peter Brandt has floated a target as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, a horizon that underscores a longer‑term bearish thesis in which macro and cyclical forces compress price multiple times. Benjamin Cowen has circled early October as a likely window for a cycle low, even as he anticipates several rallies on the way there. And Fidelity’s macro strategist, Jurrien Timmer, has signaled that 2026 could resemble a year off for Bitcoin, with downside potential into the mid‑$60s as the market reconciles risk premia with macro realignment.
The net takeaway is a market that remains highly sensitive to macro tempo and liquidity conditions, with a spectrum of outcomes depending on how quickly demand returns and how investors price risk in a climate of ongoing uncertainty. The chatter around potential capitulation lows reinforces the need for disciplined risk management and careful position sizing as traders navigate a landscape where both downside catalysts and relief rallies can unfold abruptly.
What to watch next
- Price action around the $75,000–$80,000 band: does BTC hold above this range, or does it break lower, inviting a deeper pullback?
- Analyst updates from prominent figures (e.g., Brandt, Cowen, Timmer) about potential bottoms and interim rallies, and how these views evolve with macro data releases.
- On‑chain indicators and capitulation signals: any spike in long‑term holder behavior or changes in liquidity metrics that precede a durable bottom?
- Macro and regulatory developments that could shape risk appetite for crypto assets, including any shifts in liquidity or institutional participation.
Sources & verification
- PlanC’s commentary on the depth of this pullback and the potential $75k–$80k bottom (X post).
- Bitcoin price data around $77,000 and $78,690 from CoinMarketCap.
- Peter Brandt’s bearish forecast for BTC toward $60,000 by Q3 2026 (Cointelegraph coverage).
- Benjamin Cowen’s expectation of a cycle low in early October with interim rallies (X post).
- Jurrien Timmer’s note that 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin with a potential dip to the mid‑$60k range (Fidelity macro research).
- Investor commentary from Rajat Soni urging restraint after weekend moves (X post).
Bitcoin under pressure as capitulation risks weigh on market outlook
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faced a sharp test this weekend as the largest crypto by market capitalization slipped about 7% to roughly $77,000, before carving a modest recovery toward $78,690 as markets sat for fresh catalysts. The price retreat comes after a period of heightened volatility that has left many onlookers pondering whether the trough of this cycle has already occurred or if a deeper retracement lies ahead. In the backdrop, Bitcoin remains down roughly 38% from its late‑2021 peak of about $126,100, a gap that many analysts see as a reminder of the cyclical nature of crypto markets and the potential for sizable downside risk before a sustainable rebound materializes.
PlanC, a well‑known voice in the crypto‑trading space, framed Saturday’s move as potentially the deepest pullback of the ongoing bull run. In a post on X, the analyst noted that there is a “decent chance” the current dip represents the cycle’s most pronounced capitulation event to date, calling attention to the fact that past crashes—from the 2018 rout that saw BTC slump to $3,000, to the March 2020 crisis around $5,100, and the distress seen during FTX and Luna collapses—produced price levels that required years to fully digest. The implication is that market psychology could be recalibrating after a period of outsized gains, with the risk of a extended bottom shaping the near‑ to mid‑term outlook.
Despite the dour undertone, there are voices that urge caution against overreaction. Rajat Soni, a respected crypto accountant, cautioned that weekend activity can be deceptive and urged traders not to overreact to momentary pumps or dumps. He suggested that Bitcoin’s eventual recovery might arrive when least expected, underlining a core market truth: price cycles often surprise participants who attempt to time them with precision. The mixed mood among market watchers—some signaling further downside, others warning against premature conclusions—highlights the ongoing tug‑of‑war between pessimism tethered to cycles and the belief that institutional participation and macro liquidity can eventually re‑accelerate demand.
Beyond PlanC’s framework, other veteran voices have laid out scenarios that keep the door open for a softer landing or more extended consolidation. Peter Brandt, a veteran chartist, has entertained the possibility of a drop as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, a projection that emphasizes how far the market could drift if macro or systemic pressures intensify. Benjamin Cowen, meanwhile, anticipates a cycle low in early October and expects multiple rallies to punctuate the path to that trough, suggesting that traders should be prepared for volatility rather than a straightforward, one‑way decline. On the macro front, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity has signaled that 2026 could be a “year off” in which Bitcoin stalls or retests lower levels, with projections hinting at sub‑$65,000 levels in a scenario where risk appetite remains constrained.
The confluence of these viewpoints underscores a broader market reality: liquidity conditions, macro sentiment, and evolving regulatory and product‑market dynamics will continue to shape Bitcoin’s path in the months ahead. While some forecasts point to significant downside, others highlight the possibility of interim rallies that can trap late entrants or overconfident holders. For now, market participants will be watching how the price action behaves near key support zones and whether on‑chain metrics corroborate the possibility of a capitulation event or a more protracted bottoming process.
