Bitcoin rebounds after new 2026 lows as weak US stocks loom

Bitcoin slid sharply over the past several sessions, briefly testing levels last seen in September 2024 and triggering a wave of leveraged liquidations. While broader risk assets steadied after a key US inflation print, crypto-specific flows and derivatives positioning pointed to waning demand and a market that may be primed for further volatility.

At the same time, institutional indicators are sending mixed signals: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw meaningful net outflows, and an upcoming options expiry appears structurally bearish. With traders increasingly reassessing risk-reward against interest-bearing alternatives, the near-term question for Bitcoin is no longer just whether the macro backdrop improves, but whether crypto can generate its own catalyst.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin fell about 9% in three days, reaching its lowest level since September 2024 and sparking over $1 billion in liquidations on leveraged long positions.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF activity deteriorated, with $469 million in net outflows reported for Wednesday—an oft-cited proxy for institutional demand.
• Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry is heavily skewed toward puts, with Deribit put open interest expected to exceed calls by $3.4 billion.
• Rising confidence in a cooling inflation trend helped stocks and pressured demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while 5-year US Treasuries yielded about 4.15%.

Bitcoin’s sharp drop and the forced unwinds

Bitcoin traded down roughly 9% across three days, hitting a low not seen since September 2024. The subsequent retest of the $58,000 area proved painful for bulls: more than $1 billion in liquidations were recorded across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Although BTC recovered modestly to around $59,500, the move left traders cautious rather than confident.

Part of the timing lined up with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The data showed May inflation rising 4.1% year over year. Even so, the market response suggested investors believed inflation pressures had begun to cool—especially as crude Brent retreated from roughly $95 earlier to around $75 more recently.

That easing in energy prices appears to have helped equities. The article notes that the S&P 500 and gold had erased their intraday losses, indicating that traders were willing to rotate back into risk assets after digesting macro updates.

Why crypto’s correlation story is breaking

Even when Bitcoin moves in tandem with broader markets, investors often look to whether the “risk-on” tailwind is actually benefiting crypto. Here, several crypto-specific signals suggest BTC is not simply lagging equities—it may be diverging.

The piece highlights a shift in how traders may be framing opportunity costs. It points to stronger performance in parts of the tech sector, referencing notable stock moves such as Micron’s 16% jump and a similar surge in Sandisk, alongside gains in chipmaking equipment. In that environment, Bitcoin can lose relative appeal if capital is finding stronger payoff in equities.

Beyond stock action, the article ties the broader risk appetite to shifting government emphasis on areas that support infrastructure and computing capacity. It also references a set of policy angles—such as a stake in Intel and proposals and frameworks related to quantum computing and “frontier models”—which are presented as supporting factors for the tech and data infrastructure narrative.

For Bitcoin traders, the key implication is straightforward: if equities are offering both momentum and an improving macro narrative, then BTC needs more than soft correlations to attract incremental risk capital.

Fixed income turns into a more competitive hedge

One of the article’s central arguments is that the balance of hedging tools may be changing. When rates are rising or expected to rise, investors often prefer assets that can generate yield—particularly in uncertain regimes where non-yielding assets like Bitcoin face more headwinds.

According to the coverage, traders may be pricing in an elevated probability of US rate increases into year-end. It cites the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 80% chance of US interest rate hikes by December, up from 68% a month earlier. In the same vein, it points out that 5-year US Treasuries were yielding about 4.15%, providing an alternative “parking place” for capital compared to Bitcoin.

That matters because the attractiveness of Bitcoin frequently hinges on whether investors believe they can finance exposure cheaply or whether cash is earning too much elsewhere. If Treasury yields remain competitive, the burden shifts to crypto-specific demand drivers—ETF flows, onboarding, or derivative positioning that reflects genuine upside conviction.

ETF outflows and options skew reinforce caution

Two of the most immediately actionable signals in the report come from flows and derivatives.

On the spot ETF side, the article says Bitcoin’s outlook took a hit from $469 million in net outflows on Wednesday. It frames this metric as a proxy for institutional demand—meaning persistent negative flows can signal that large allocators are not actively adding to exposure at current prices.

Derivatives are sending a similar cautionary message. The coverage points to Friday’s upcoming Bitcoin options expiry of about $13 billion, stating that the distribution of open interest favors put instruments. It reports that put open interest on Deribit is expected to exceed call open interest by $3.4 billion.

It also adds that most neutral-to-bullish options structures are likely to expire worthless, because 78% of call options are priced at $72,000 or higher. Taken together, the options market suggests the crowd is paying for downside protection—or positioning for reduced upside.

The article further notes deterioration in the Strategy (MSTR) position, referencing “huge unrealized loss” after buying $64.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since 2020. While equity-linked narratives can influence trader sentiment, the bigger takeaway is that corporate exposure does not automatically translate into stable support for spot demand, especially when ETF flows are negative.

What to watch next

With liquidations behind BTC for now but ETF outflows and a put-heavy options expiry still in focus, traders should look for evidence that spot demand returns—either through improved ETF flow trends or a shift in derivatives positioning as the expiry passes. Until then, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim strength may depend less on macro tailwinds and more on whether crypto-specific demand reappears.