Bitcoin RSI Divergence Revives 2022 Bear-Market Bottom Bets

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $60,000 level heading into the weekend, as technical traders point to cooling volatility and renewed momentum signals on multiple time frames. The move comes with renewed comparisons to late-2022, when similar relative strength patterns preceded a major shift in market direction.

Despite pockets of bullish read-through, some traders continue to expect another leg lower—framing any recovery as potentially temporary unless key resistance levels hold. For market participants, the immediate question is whether $60,000 can flip from a ceiling back into dependable support.

Key takeaways

• Traders using TradingView data cite a developing RSI bullish divergence as price struggles below recent levels.
• Analysis highlights higher RSI swing lows on the four-hour chart alongside lower price lows, a pattern often associated with improving downside momentum.
• Weekly RSI divergence is being compared to a 2022 setup that preceded Bitcoin’s durable bear-market floor near $15,600.
• Some analysts still project further downside, potentially extending into August, even if a relief bounce occurs sooner.
• Commentary from analysts suggests $60,000 is being defended, but it remains unclear whether that defense can withstand a confirmed trend reversal.

RSI divergence draws renewed 2022 parallels

According to TradingView charting, BTC/USD has shown signs of “cooling” volatility after returning above $60,000. On the hourly time frame, market observers noted a sequence of higher swing lows paired with relative strength index (RSI) readings that suggest selling pressure may be easing.

The more widely circulated signal, however, is on the four-hour chart. A bullish divergence appears to be forming when RSI prints higher lows while price makes lower lows—an arrangement traders interpret as a potential shift in the balance between buyers and sellers.

Pseudonymous trader Rod explicitly framed the situation as history repeating itself, pairing current signals with how RSI behavior changed during the 2022 bear market. In a post on X, Rod wrote: “It’s 2022 again,” aligning the current backdrop with the earlier period when RSI divergence preceded a durable base.

What traders point to from the 2022 bear-market setup

In the 2022 episode cited by traders, a weekly RSI bullish divergence coincided with Bitcoin establishing its bear-market low near $15,600. That low later functioned as a lasting market floor, reinforcing the idea—at least for technical analysts—that multi-time-frame RSI divergence can matter when the broader downtrend starts to lose momentum.

More recently, four-hour RSI levels fell to around 11.4 at the start of June, according to the same chart-based commentary. That reading is described as one of the lowest levels on record, underscoring that RSI has already tested extreme oversold conditions before bouncing back toward the $60,000 area.

Daily confirmations and the debate over next support

On Friday, crypto analyst Lukasz Wydra added daily perspective to the ongoing RSI discussion. According to his post on X, the bullish RSI divergence has been “officially confirmed,” though he cautioned that it could still deepen before any sustained recovery takes hold.

Wydra characterized the RSI development as an “encouraging sign,” while also pointing to what he described as continued defense of the price by Binance. The core takeaway for traders: even if divergence signals are improving, confirmation through price action still determines whether buyers can hold the current range.

For investors and traders, this distinction is critical. RSI divergence can indicate changing momentum, but without a follow-through move—such as reclaiming and holding major resistance—markets can remain prone to “false starts” where dips resume after brief bounces.

Calls for $55,000 and the risk that relief fades in August

Not all participants are comfortable treating $60,000 as a turning point. Niels Klaver, cofounder of STABL Agency, reiterated expectations for Bitcoin to visit around $55,000 “before any big move” in his post on X. His view implies that a larger downside objective could still be ahead even if RSI-based signals continue to improve.

Similarly, trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested the market could experience a relief bounce next month, arguing that July tends to behave differently than June. But he also tied the follow-up to a key mechanical level: once BTC/USD confirms the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) as new resistance, Rekt Capital expects “August cancellation of relief and additional downside” linked to weakening around $60,000 support, as described in his weekly update on X.

Under this framework, the near-term path would be less about a straight reversal and more about a sequence: a bounce first, then renewed pressure if resistance levels prevent buyers from sustaining higher prices. That view matches the broader tension in the current technical narrative—RSI divergence hints at improving momentum, while other chart targets suggest further downside risk remains active.

What to watch next

Traders should focus on whether Bitcoin can hold $60,000 after testing it, and whether RSI improvements translate into sustained breakouts rather than short-lived mean reversion. The next decisive clues are likely to come from how BTC reacts to the highest-probability resistance levels highlighted by analysts and whether downside projections from $55,000 toward later-month scenarios gain confirmation.