Editor’s note: eToro crypto analyst Simon Peters outlines the forces behind bitcoin’s sharp pullback from its October 2025 highs, pointing to a broader risk-off environment, leverage unwinds, and fragile investor sentiment across global markets. The commentary focuses on key technical and on-chain indicators now in focus, including long-term support levels and valuation metrics that have historically marked major market bottoms. As bitcoin trades under renewed selling pressure, the analysis frames the current correction within past cycles, while highlighting the conditions that could help stabilize prices if macro and market dynamics begin to shift.
Key points
- Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its October 2025 peak amid global risk-off sentiment.
- Liquidation of leveraged positions has intensified downside pressure.
- The 200-week moving average is being watched as a potential long-term support level.
- Historical cycles show similar corrections in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
- On-chain MVRV Z-score signals bitcoin may be nearing long-term fair value.
Why this matters
The analysis offers a timely snapshot of market psychology as bitcoin navigates one of its deepest post-ETF drawdowns. For investors and builders, long-term indicators like the 200-week moving average and MVRV Z-score provide context beyond short-term volatility. In a market increasingly influenced by macro conditions and institutional flows, understanding where leverage resets and valuation metrics converge is key to assessing whether the current correction is a pause or a potential inflection point.
What to watch next
- Bitcoin’s behavior around the 200-week moving average.
- Evidence of reduced leverage and easing forced liquidations.
- Changes in ETF inflows as broader risk sentiment evolves.
- Shifts in macro and geopolitical conditions impacting risk assets.
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Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 05, 2026: “After reaching an all-time high of $126,500 in October 2025, bitcoin has continued to slide as broader risk-off sentiment spills into the crypto market,” said Simon Peters, Crypto Analyst at eToro.
“Heightened geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty and disappointing earnings forecasts have led investors to reassess risk assets, including technology stocks and crypto, while the liquidation of leveraged long positions has further accelerated the downturn.
“After breaking multiple support levels, bitcoin is now trading just below $70,000 and remains under significant selling pressure.
“From a technical perspective, analysts are closely watching bitcoin’s 200-week moving average as a potential area where the price could find a bottom. Historically, this level has acted as strong support following major corrections and bear markets in 2015, 2018, 2020 during the Covid pandemic, and most recently in 2022.
“Could history repeat itself in 2026? It remains to be seen. Once leverage is flushed out of the system, selling pressure eases and ETF inflows resume, this could help stabilise prices and signal the end of the current correction.
“From an on-chain perspective, the widely used MVRV Z-score — which assesses whether bitcoin is trading above or below its fair value — is also pointing towards a potential long-term buying opportunity.”
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