Bitcoin slips toward $62K as bear-market history echoes past cycles

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped to week-to-date lows as markets opened on Tuesday, with traders eyeing the $65,000 region as the threshold bulls must clear to regain momentum. The early session underscored a cautious mood ahead of the key US inflation print, as BTC hovered near notable support levels.

Data from TradingView showed BTC down about 1.2% on the day, after a double rejection near $64,200 set the stage for another test of the $60,000 area. The persistent struggle at the $65,000 mark has kept bulls on the back foot even as the broader market awaits new cues.

Key takeaways

• 65k hurdle remains critical for bulls: A break above $65,000 could trigger a renewed rally toward the $72,000–$74,000 zone, according to well-known market analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
• Bear-market patterns resurface: Analysts note BTC has already fallen through or near several classic bear-market markers, including the 50-month exponential moving average and a triangle support pattern, echoing characteristics seen in 2018 and 2022.
• Macro backdrop softens near-term mood: Oil markets moved lower as Iran peace momentum reemerged, while US indices traded higher in early action, underscoring a mixed macro backdrop for risk assets including crypto.
• Last week’s macro low remains a reference point: Traders highlight the bound near $59,100 as part of the ongoing debate about how much further downside is possible in the current cycle.
• Oil volatility and crypto correlations: WTI crude slipped below $88 per barrel, marking a June-like low, while equities opened with gains, illustrating the complex, sometimes divergent, macro forces shaping crypto sentiment.

BTC price action: bear-market echoes and key levels

Bitcoin’s Tuesday session unfolded with selling pressure building ahead of a fresh read on inflation data in the United States. A 1.2% drop on the day left BTC testing the lower boundary of the recent range, with a notable rejection at about $64,200 raising the risk of a test of the critical $60,000 support floor.

Analysts have been weighing the implications of the current price action against historical bear-market pathways. Michaël van de Poppe, a trader and analyst known for his market theses, emphasized that breaking the $65,000 barrier is essential for shifting the momentum back in favor of the bulls. “Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K; breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72K–$74K,” he explained, underscoring the level’s role as a resistance pivot after a February decline.

“The $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through.”

Another influential voice in the space, Rekt Capital, drew comparisons between the present pattern and past cycle bottoms. He pointed to two hallmarks—loss of the 50-month EMA and a breach of a triangle support—that occurred in 2018 and 2022. “Now Bitcoin needs to fully confirm this breakdown to enter additional Bearish Acceleration to the downside,” he remarked in a recent update. The broader takeaway is that the market is watching for a decisive move beyond a few pivotal levels before signaling a durable trend reversal.

Those watching the macro landscape note that last week’s dip to around $59,100 remains a point of reference. While some participants view the recent selloff as irrational by some measures, the current setup suggests that traders will seek a clear breakout—above $65,000 or below the lower bounds of the nearby range—to confirm the next phase of the cycle.

Macro backdrop: oil moves, Iran peace momentum and market timing

In contrast to the crypto market’s tug-of-war, traditional markets opened with a cautious tilt, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by roughly 1% in early trading. The broader mood was tempered by ongoing macro narratives, including calls for peace in broader geopolitical tensions and the related impact on energy markets.

Oil prices moved notably lower in early trade, with WTI crude slipping under $88 per barrel and hitting its lowest level since late May. The move came as Iran peace momentum re-entered the market narrative, contributing to a volatile energy backdrop that can ripple through risk assets, including crypto, in the near term.

Market chatter also drew on a widely reported quote attributed to former US President Donald Trump, who was described by Al Jazeera and other outlets as saying that “It’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down” in a tele-rally focused on a Republican candidate. While the tone underscored hopes for easing energy costs, the immediate market reaction remained nuanced, with equities rising while crude prices retreated.

The confluence of these macro threads—energy-price moves, inflation expectations, and geopolitical headlines—helps explain why BTC’s price action continues to contrast with pockets of risk-on appetite in traditional markets.

Looking ahead, traders will be watching how BTC behaves around the $65,000 threshold and whether the 50-month EMA can stabilize or give way to further downside. The upcoming inflation print remains a key catalyst, with market participants parsing the central bank signal as part of a broader assessment of risk assets. As always in crypto, the next moves will hinge on the balance of technical confirmations and macro developments.

Readers should keep an eye on whether BTC can reclaim $65,000 and establish a convincing higher-low, while also monitoring whether the oil and inflation narrative supports a broader risk-on tilt or keeps the market in a cautious, data-driven posture.