Bitcoin Struggles Below $80K as Analysts Highlight Supply Absorption Test

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 area, but on-chain signals suggest the rally is running into a familiar problem: even when buyers show up, sell-side pressure from investors sitting on profits can reappear quickly.

According to on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant, older “long-term holder” coins have become more active around recent local highs, while a widely watched gauge of U.S. demand—the Coinbase premium—remains slightly negative. Together, the data points to a market that can push upward, but struggles to sustain momentum without stronger fresh buying from the U.S.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant data shows the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders rose to 1.48 on Aug. 22, indicating profit-taking-related activity is increasing among older coins.
• The SOPR ratio (short-term holders vs. long-term holders) peaked at 1.4 near $79,500—its highest reading since July 25—before slipping to 0.93, implying relative selling dynamics may be shifting back toward short-term holders.
• All major holder cohorts are reportedly in profit on aggregate, creating conditions where additional upside requires demand strong enough to absorb profitable supply.
• The Coinbase premium index is still negative at -0.015, underscoring that U.S. spot demand has not fully regained strength despite Bitcoin’s local push higher.

Older Bitcoin holders increase on-chain profit-taking signals

CryptoQuant’s monitoring highlights that “older” Bitcoin coins moved on-chain more actively during the latest rise. The firm links this behavior to a period when BTC/USD gained more than 25% over the past week, according to the related market context cited alongside the analysis.

The specific on-chain indicator at the center of the update is the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). SOPR compares the value of recently spent UTXOs against the value at the time those outputs were created. In CryptoQuant’s read, SOPR ticking up to 1.48 on Aug. 22 points to increased movement involving in-profit coins—an environment that often accompanies selling or at least reallocation of positions.

CryptoQuant also points to a second metric: the SOPR ratio, which divides the SOPR of short-term holders (STH) by that of long-term holders (LTH). Here, STH refers to wallets that hold BTC for up to six months, while LTH refers to wallets holding longer than six months.

As price consolidated around $79,500, the SOPR ratio reached 1.4, the highest reading since July 25. In CryptoQuant’s framing, that peak suggested long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate than short-term holders at that moment.

However, the picture quickly cooled. CryptoQuant later reported the SOPR ratio had fallen to 0.93, saying the shift implies short-term holders’ realized performance is now relatively stronger than long-term holders’ realized performance.

Why the SOPR trend matters for traders near $80,000

Profit-taking signals often show up with a lag: price can rise while the market is still digesting prior positioning, but once more investors become “in profit” enough to consider exits, upward momentum can stall. CryptoQuant notes that the SOPR ratio has been forming a broad downtrend since early 2025. By the end of June, it reportedly hit 0.62—its lowest levels in three years as BTC/USD traded near $58,000.

That earlier low matters because it sets the stage for what investors should watch now. While Bitcoin has only reversed modestly higher since that period, the market has not been able to remain above $80,000, implying the rebound has met persistent resistance from supply and realized profit behavior.

In a key takeaway from CryptoQuant, the firm emphasizes that the market question is less about whether Bitcoin can “briefly touch” $80,000 and more about whether new demand is sufficient to absorb selling from profitable holders. That distinction is important for both short-term traders and longer-term investors: price can reach a level, but the sustainability of the move depends on whether incremental buyers continue stepping in as profit-taking grows.

U.S. demand still weak as Coinbase premium stays negative

While on-chain SOPR metrics describe behavior among existing holders, the Coinbase premium index helps describe demand conditions—particularly from U.S. participants. CryptoQuant tracks the difference between BTC/USDT pricing on Coinbase versus Binance; when the premium is negative, the indicator suggests the U.S. market is not paying a “premium” relative to global liquidity.

In this latest update, CryptoQuant reports the Coinbase premium has failed to return to positive territory and remains negative. The firm says it moved above zero only briefly on hourly time frames as Bitcoin broke above $78,500, but it has not sustained a positive reading.

As of Wednesday, CryptoQuant lists the Coinbase premium at -0.015, compared with -0.094 at the start of August. Even with that improvement, the index remains below zero—an asymmetry that matters because it suggests that despite improving activity and price strength, the broader U.S. buyer base is not yet strong enough to lift demand sentiment into “buying over sellers” territory.

CryptoQuant frames the next signal plainly: whether the premium can cross above zero and remain positive. The firm argues that if Bitcoin continues recovering while the Coinbase premium turns positive, the market could shift from easing selling pressure toward a phase characterized by stronger renewed U.S. spot demand.

What to monitor next: holder profits versus fresh inflows

For now, CryptoQuant’s data points to a market where holder cohorts are, in aggregate, already in profit—meaning there is potential for realized selling to reappear during pullbacks or consolidation. At the same time, the Coinbase premium suggests U.S. spot demand is still not fully supporting sustained breakout conditions.

Going forward, investors should watch whether the SOPR ratio stabilizes rather than continues sliding, and whether the Coinbase premium can hold above zero. Those two developments—profit-taking dynamics among holders and persistent demand signals from U.S. trading venues—may determine whether $80,000 becomes a new floor or remains a ceiling.