Bitcoin is starting the week with renewed caution as traders weigh macro-driven volatility against fresh technical signals on the weekly chart. After slipping back toward the low-$62,000 area, market participants are debating whether recent downside momentum is merely a pause—or the early stages of a broader bear-market base.

At the same time, geopolitical risk has returned to the front pages. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, tightening expectations around oil supply and feeding into risk-asset uncertainty just as the US prepares for key inflation readings and Federal Reserve testimony.

Key takeaways

Some traders point to a potential early bull-market turn, with one arguing a surge could begin around September or October.
Bitcoin’s weekly “death cross” signal is again in focus, and traders say the prior occurrence before the September 2022 bottom left a similar late-stage pattern.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has lifted crude prices and is contributing to higher-rate expectations—typically a headwind for crypto.
US CPI and PPI prints, followed by Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, are likely to determine whether risk appetite steadies or fades further.
CryptoQuant data shows midsize holders (100–1,000 BTC) recorded their strongest distribution since February 19, adding nuance to the “bottoming” narrative.

Traders debate timing: early rebound calls vs. bearish structure

One of the more attention-grabbing takes came from trader Ryker, who used an X post on Monday to challenge the prevailing “four-year cycle” interpretation of Bitcoin’s bull and bear phases. Ryker’s argument hinges on the idea that market makers may front-run the crowd’s expectations for a later bear-market bottom—potentially engineering an earlier rebound than most participants anticipate.

“I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn’t trust this chart.”

Ryker’s broader point is that positioning often moves ahead of consensus. In their framing, if the market believes the next bull cycle will begin in 2027, then contrarian timing could create a squeeze-like move in the months before that narrative fully consolidates.

Other indicators are being cited as well. Cointelegraph previously noted that certain reversal signals—such as those connected to Bollinger Bands—have “flashed” for the first time since the end of the last bear market in late 2022. Still, Cointelegraph also reported that historical context suggests the current bear market may be too early for a clean reversal before year-end, with progress toward a potential bottom estimated at around 70%.

Range-bound action and the “death cross” on the weekly chart

In the near term, price action has been choppy. After the weekly close, Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure and fell to local lows near $62,500, according to TradingView. Traders cited the $64,000 area as short-term resistance, noting multiple failed attempts to break higher.

On X, trader Daan Crypto Trades characterized market behavior as unusually mixed between crypto and equities, saying Bitcoin has been ranging roughly between the low-$60,000s and mid-$60,000s. Another analyst, Lennaert Snyder, highlighted order-book and funding-rate conditions to argue that additional downward testing could be “healthy,” pointing to selling pressure reflected in spot and perpetuals.

For longer-time-horizon traders, the weekly “death cross” is back in the spotlight. Trader Jelle pointed to the death cross involving the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs) as a potentially meaningful framework, noting that the last death cross occurred in September 2022, only months before that cycle’s bear-market bottom.

Jelle’s message to followers was that the signal has historically appeared late enough in the drawdown for accumulation patterns to start reasserting themselves, even if it doesn’t guarantee an immediate floor.

Hormuz closure lifts oil and pressures rate-sensitive assets

While traders continue to debate the chart, macro catalysts are moving in real time. Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice marks a renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict dynamic, according to coverage summarized on social media. The market reaction has been consistent with oil-supply risk: US WTI crude reportedly returned to around $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus July lows.

Crypto educators and analysts have tied the story to broader financial conditions. Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin flagged a spike in US two-year Treasury yields, noting that it pushed above 2.35%—the highest level in about 16 months. In his view, the implication is that oil-driven inflation expectations can translate into “higher for longer” interest-rate assumptions, which typically weighs on risk assets including crypto.

Still, not everyone is treating the Middle East headline cycle as the sole driver of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. Trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that the correction may be influenced more directly by Japanese bond dynamics and the yen’s weakness versus the US dollar, pointing to potential effects from rising yields in Japan. In his scenario, a breakdown in yields over the next 1–2 weeks could help support a positive breakout in Bitcoin.

US CPI/PPI and Fed testimony set the agenda for rates

With Iran-related risk in the background, the next major inflection points are scheduled on the US macro calendar. June CPI and PPI are due in the coming days and represent the final inflation releases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s end-of-month decision on interest-rate changes.

Cointelegraph previously highlighted that Iran’s impact is already embedded in US inflation reporting for several months, which raises the stakes for whether CPI or PPI comes in hotter or cooler than expected—something that could quickly swing risk-asset sentiment.

Almost immediately after the CPI release, Kevin Warsh is set to present a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee. Warsh has been described in prior coverage as balancing rising inflation concerns with political pressure to cut rates; at his first interest-rate meeting, he reportedly remained on the hawkish side rather than signaling an imminent relaxation.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently price policy staying unchanged until September, when a majority consensus expects a 0.25% increase. Separately, The Kobeissi Letter summarized the week as “highly eventful,” reinforcing the idea that multiple moving parts—CPI, PPI, and Fed commentary—could amplify swings rather than smooth them out.

Midsize holder distribution adds friction to “bottom” narratives

Beyond price charts and macro headlines, on-chain behavior is offering a more mixed picture. CryptoQuant reported new insights on Bitcoin holders in the 100–1,000 BTC range, tracking distribution activity that may indicate reduced conviction from a specific investor cohort.

In the CryptoQuant analysis published Monday, contributor Amr Taha wrote that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of roughly 67,000 BTC on July 13. That was described as the cohort’s strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached approximately 47,000 BTC.

Importantly, Taha also contextualized the pattern by noting that this cohort’s behavior over the past three months has been uneven—late April reportedly showed accumulation, while the February period ended with distribution followed by a rebound. Taha cautioned that the signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it does place Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in midsize investor behavior.

CryptoQuant data also suggested that inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime cooled in mid-July, aligning with the broader theme that not all demand channels are accelerating at the same pace.

For traders and investors, the next few sessions may be less about arguing which indicator is “right” and more about watching how Bitcoin responds to scheduled inflation data and Fed messaging—especially if midsize distribution continues while rate expectations remain volatile. The tension to monitor is whether technical reversal narratives gain traction as macro pressure either eases or intensifies.