Bitcoin is contending with a rare confluence of resistance on the weekly chart, a setup that could determine whether the bear phase eases into March or drags on for longer. The price action comes as BTC hovers in a tight zone just below three major barriers: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at about $68,330, the long-standing 2021 all-time high near $69,000, and the round-number psyche of $70,000. The most recent moves show a struggle to reclaim those levels after a mid-week peak that touched $70,040 but failed to hold. This backdrop has traders weighing the probability of a sustained rebound versus another leg lower, with the market watching for a decisive bullish signal.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin is testing a triple-resistance cluster on the weekly chart, with the 200-week EMA at roughly $68,330, the 2021 peak around $69,000, and $70,000 acting as a psychological barrier.
- BTC has dropped about 14% in February, marking a fifth consecutive red month, highlighting persistent downside pressure even as buyers consider a potential shift in momentum.
- The price hovered near $67,720 after failing to reclaim the $70,000 level, underscoring the need for a weekly close above the 200-week EMA to sustain any upside.
- Analysts have flirted with the idea that March could turn bullish if a weekly close clears the EMA hurdle, suggesting a possible retest toward higher targets if momentum builds.
- Historical precedent factors into the discussion: a similar streak in late 2018 preceded a multi-month rally, raising expectations that a reversal could materialize in the spring once selling pressure loosens.
- Longer-term signals remain mixed, with traders eyeing the potential break above a major cost-basis level around $74,500 as a potential marker for a sustained bull phase.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Market context: The price action arrives as liquidity and risk appetite swing with broader market dynamics, including a stock-market rebound and earnings data that have previously boosted risk-on assets. Traders are balancing technical resistance with macro cues, keeping a close watch on trend-following signals and key levels on the chart.
Why it matters
From a technical standpoint, the trio of resistance points converges at a zone that has historically defined BTC’s near-term fate. A weekly close above the 200-week EMA at $68,330 would be a rare indication that sellers are losing steam and that bulls are regaining control. Such a move could rekindle momentum toward the next psychological and technical targets, potentially delivering a more substantive bounce than a cursory intraday spike.
The broader context matters because these levels are not arbitrary driftlines; they reflect long-standing anchors in Bitcoin’s price history. Confronting the old high at $69,000 provides a test of whether demand can overwhelm supply that has persisted through a prolonged drawdown. The $70,000 level, in turn, functions as more than a price barrier—it signals a market memory of previous turning points when risk appetite reacted to macro news and liquidity conditions. A sustained move through these gates could alter sentiment in a market that has endured a multi-month downtrend.
Beyond the immediate price optics, the discussion is inseparable from the mechanism of a potential bear-market exit. Some market observers point to a pivotal threshold around $74,500—the cost basis for the 18-24 month age band—as a possible inflection line for the bear narrative. A break above that zone has historically carried implications for the durability of any upward move, even if the current price action remains within a volatile corridor. In this sense, the path forward is not simply about punching higher; it is about confirming a durable change in the supply-demand dynamics that have characterized BTC for months.
The market’s current mood is further informed by a blend of on-chain and sentiment signals that emphasize demand resilience and the risk of renewed selling pressure if macro catalysts deteriorate. Market watchers have noted that previous episodes of similar consolidation tended to be followed by more pronounced moves once the EMA and key resistance levels gave way. This pattern, while not a guarantee, has shaped a cautious outlook for March as participants await the weekly cadence of candles to reveal whether bulls can sustain a breakout or whether fresh selling emerges to prolong the consolidation.
In parallel, commentary from prominent traders underscores the fragility of any rally, noting that a lack of a convincing weekly close could delay a meaningful rebound. For instance, a trader known as Captain Faibik argued that clearing the 200-week EMA on a weekly basis could pave the way for a resurgence toward higher targets, cautioning that March could shape up as a turning point if momentum is captured. His assessment reflects a common view that the longer horizon—beyond a single daily move—matters for how the market assigns value to risk assets in the near term.
As a reminder of the historical context, a Cointelegraph piece noted that the bear market could end if BTC reclaimsthe cost basis around the 18-24-month band, a threshold that has historically signaled a shift in trend. The question remains whether this time will mimic the late-2018 to early-2019 period when a months-long drawdown was followed by a dramatic multi-bagger rally. If selling pressure abates and demand returns, April could mark the onset of a more constructive phase for the asset, even as the journey toward that inflection point remains uncertain.
“I think March is going to be a bullish month.”
Data from CoinGlass reinforces the immediacy of the trend, showing a five-month streak of negative performance for Bitcoin with February posting about a 14% decline. The cadence of losses has raised concerns about macro-driven risk-off sentiment, yet it also sets the table for a potential reversal should macro news align with technical breakouts. The market’s memory of past cycles—where similar declines have given way to decisive rallies—keeps the discussion open for a spring resurgence, provided the price clears the critical thresholds and maintains momentum.
In this environment, traders are urged to monitor the confluence of signals rather than relying on a single data point. A sustained push through the key hurdle at $68,330 on a weekly close would be a more meaningful signal than a fleeting intraday peak. If momentum bets align with a broader market backdrop that supports risk-on assets, the path toward higher levels could materialize, offering traders a clearer roadmap for the weeks ahead.
What to watch next
- Watch for a weekly close above the 200-week EMA near $68,330 to confirm momentum and potentially open a path toward $70,000 and beyond.
- Monitor price action around $69,000 and $74,500 as potential inflection points that could alter the bear narrative and attract new buyers or trigger renewed selling.
- Observe the interplay between macro catalysts and risk appetite, including market reactions to earnings data and macro releases, which have previously influenced BTC’s correlation with broader assets.
- Track on-chain indicators and investor behavior for signs of exhaustion in selling pressure and the emergence of accumulation patterns that precede sustained rallies.
Sources & verification
- BTC price context and resistance levels as discussed in a Cointelegraph piece focusing on the confluence of barriers at $68k–$70k
- BTCUSD TradingView data illustrating price hovering around $67,720 after rejection from $70,000
- CoinTelegraph report on bear-market dynamics tied to reclaiming $74,500 as a key end-state
- CoinGlass data documenting February’s 14% decline and the five-month red streak
- Public posts by traders on X, including insights from CryptoFaibik and Alek Carter, discussing near-term momentum and historic precedents
