- Ethereum’s price has rebounded over 15% from recent lows, approaching critical resistance at $4,500.
- Technical analysis suggests a bull flag pattern forming, indicating potential for further upside.
- On-chain indicators like the MVRV bands show ETH’s price staying above key support levels, supporting a recovery rally.
- If bullish momentum continues, ETH could target record highs near $5,200 by November.
- A breakdown below $3,550 could invalidate the bullish setup and lead to deeper retracements.
ETH price bounce in technical context
Ethereum’s latest recovery appears to be developing within a classic bull flag pattern. This technical formation often signals the continuation of an uptrend following a consolidation phase. ETH’s rebound stems from a descending parallel channel, which formed after a sharp rally from its April low near $2,500 to the August high around $4,950, as shown below.
The recent bounce off the channel’s lower boundary near $3,500 aligns with support from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a historically strong foundation during bullish phases. If this momentum persists, ETH could break upward toward the channel’s upper resistance near $4,500 in October, further fueled by the bullish double bottom pattern that signals a potential rally to $4,750, as indicated by analyst insights.
Market sentiment also supports a move higher, with traders like Luca predicting ETH could rally toward $4,500, especially as it holds above its “weekly bull market support band,” shown in the yellow zone in the chart below. A breakout above this level might propel ETH toward its bull flag target of over $5,200, which could mark a new all-time high by November.
However, a downside move below the key support points—$3,550 confluence, the bull flag’s lower boundary, and the 200-day EMA—could see ETH retrace to between $3,000 and $3,200, undermining the bullish pattern and implying further correction potential.
On-chain metrics reinforce bullish outlook
Ethereum’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands suggest that recent dips have found support around the $3,900 level, historically a volume-weighted zone that has brought about new rallies. Each time ETH has touched this level—whether in early 2021, mid-2023, or early 2024—it has moved toward the +1σ (standard deviation) band near $5,000, indicating ongoing strength.
This pattern underscores that ETH remains in a healthy correction phase within its ongoing bull market cycle. If the price continues to hold above the mean band, near $3,900, a move towards $4,500–$5,000 by late October seems within reach, bolstered by improving market sentiment and on-chain support.
This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and investors should conduct their own research before trading.
