Cory Klippsten: Swan’s record Bitcoin holder supply hints at early bottom

Bitcoin’s “long-term holder” supply has climbed to new highs, a development that some analysts say could point to an earlier end to the current drawdown. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten highlighted that long-term investors are holding a record amount of BTC, a pattern he argues has historically coincided with cycle lows.

At the same time, other market watchers continue to stress that macro signals and US regulatory uncertainty may still weigh on demand. Grayscale, for instance, tied potential downside pressure to the uncertain fate of the US CLARITY Act, while Galaxy Digital later reduced its odds that the bill would become law in 2026.

Key takeaways

• Long-term holders reportedly reached 14.7 million BTC, described by Swan Bitcoin’s Cory Klippsten as “cycle low” territory in prior market turns.
• Glassnode data cited in the discussion links the increase in long-term holder supply to “continued conviction” among experienced investors.
• Coinglass data shows long-term holder supply is up about 14% since Nov. 26, reflecting renewed accumulation after earlier market stress in October.
• Some forecasts based on corporate treasury metrics suggest Bitcoin may still bottom later, potentially after Strategy’s mNAV hits its own low.
• Grayscale and Galaxy Digital both flagged uncertainty around the CLARITY Act as a factor that could keep near-term selling pressure elevated.

Record long-term holder supply revives “earlier bottom” arguments

Klippsten said Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, pointing to a level of BTC held in “addresses of long-term holders” that he characterized as having “marked cycle lows historically.” In an interview with Cointelegraph shared via X, Klippsten attributed the reading to long-term investor behavior rather than speculative turnover.

According to Glassnode, the amount of BTC held by long-term holders reached 14.7 million BTC on Wednesday, a record level that the analytics firm said signals “continued conviction.” The core idea behind this metric is that long-term holder cohorts—typically understood as holders that have not moved their coins for extended periods—tend to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. When that cohort grows, it can be interpreted as reduced willingness to sell during weaker markets.

Klippsten’s interpretation takes this one step further: he suggested that the data could imply Bitcoin’s cycle bottom may arrive sooner than in previous downturns. That view stands in tension with at least one prominent alternative framework referenced in the discussion.

Why treasury-based models still point to a later cycle low

Earlier coverage cited a forecast from Lebit Mining Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer, who argued Bitcoin would bottom between October and December 2026—roughly six months after Strategy’s Multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV) measure found its own cycle low.

Zhuoer’s reasoning, as presented in the referenced post, centers on mNAV. He wrote that Strategy’s mNAV had already declined to 0.72, approaching the lowest level of 0.7 seen on May 11, 2022. Under this model, the time gap between a company-level valuation trough (mNAV) and the broader market’s cycle low could remain consistent across cycles.

Zhuoer also suggested that such a lag could place Bitcoin’s cycle low closer to the $42,000 to $44,000 region. While that range is model-derived rather than a direct price target, it highlights an important disagreement among analysts: long-term holder accumulation may be suggesting early stabilization, while valuation compression in major treasury buyers could still imply additional downside before the market bottoms.

For investors and traders, the practical takeaway is that “accumulation signals” and “valuation timing signals” are not necessarily synchronized. If long-term holder supply continues to rise, it may reinforce a case for faster stabilization. But if treasury-driven downside pressures extend, any improvement may be slower than accumulation data alone would imply.

Accumulation restarted after October’s liquidation shock

The long-term holder narrative gains additional context from supply trends tracked by Coinglass. Coinglass reports that long-term holder supply stood at 16.65 million BTC at the time of publication, up 14% from 14.6 million BTC on Nov. 26.

Coinglass defines long-term holders as addresses that have held BTC for at least 155 days. In its framework, rising long-term holder supply often indicates that participants are reluctant to sell at current levels—an observation that aligns with Klippsten’s broader thesis about conviction during weaker periods.

The report also notes that long-term holders resumed accumulation at the end of 2025, nearly two months after early October’s record $19 billion liquidation event. That linkage matters because it suggests the observed behavior change is not purely random: a major stress event may have forced a reassessment among longer-term participants, who then positioned more conservatively as the market stabilized.

At the same time, the renewed accumulation doesn’t automatically resolve the question of price depth. If the market continues to absorb forced selling or if demand is delayed by regulation-related uncertainty, long-term holder accumulation can coexist with further price weakness.

CLARITY Act uncertainty could keep pressure on Bitcoin demand

Beyond on-chain and corporate valuation signals, the discussion also points to policy uncertainty that could affect Bitcoin demand in the US. Grayscale linked the potential for additional “deleverage” by treasury companies to whether the CLARITY Act passes.

In a Friday report, Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl wrote that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, companies such as Strategy and other treasury operators may continue to “deleverage,” which Grayscale suggested could cause Bitcoin to “fall moderately further.”

Galaxy Digital separately reduced its odds estimate, cutting the likelihood that the CLARITY Act would become law in 2026 to 50%. Galaxy Digital’s warning, as cited in the referenced coverage, emphasized that the US Senate may be running out of time to advance the broader crypto market structure bill before its August recess.

The bill is scheduled for a House of Representatives committee hearing on July 17. It aims to create the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, but has faced resistance from parts of the banking industry, particularly over the bill’s approach to allowing yield on stablecoin holdings.

For market participants, this policy dimension matters because it can directly influence institutional appetite—especially among firms whose balance-sheet strategies depend on clear regulatory pathways. When legislation is uncertain, even structurally bullish long-term investors may slow their risk-taking, affecting the pace at which demand can offset any sell-side pressure.

Next, readers should watch whether long-term holder supply continues rising alongside improving liquidity conditions, and whether the CLARITY Act’s legislative timeline shifts closer to or further from passage. Those two forces—on-chain conviction and regulatory clarity—may ultimately determine whether current accumulation translates into a quicker cycle turn or a longer grind lower.