CryptoQuant: Bitcoin’s Bull Market “Initial Phase” Begins, $83K Key Level

Bitcoin’s latest rally is starting to look more than just a short-lived rebound, with CryptoQuant saying the network’s on-chain positioning and demand metrics have shifted into bullish territory. After a roughly 24% advance, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score jumped to 80 from 30 over the past week—its highest reading since October 2025.

Still, the analytics firm stressed that confirmation matters. While BTC moved above $80,000 during the run, CryptoQuant pointed to an important technical benchmark: a weekly close above Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose to 80 (from 30) and reached the highest level since October 2025, with 8 of 10 indicators turning bullish.
• CryptoQuant said Bitcoin would likely need a weekly close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000 to confirm a new bull-market phase.
• Demand appears to be strengthening across both spot and derivatives, with spot and futures demand moving together for the first time since early October 2025, according to CryptoQuant.
• CryptoQuant warned the rally may be stretched short term as trader profits rise and whale profit-taking increases.

CryptoQuant’s bullish checklist and what must be confirmed

CryptoQuant framed the current move as an early-stage transition toward a bull market, citing a strong improvement across its Bull Score framework. The score increase—from 30 to 80 in one week—reflects broad-based changes rather than a single metric turning favorable.

According to CryptoQuant, eight of the index’s 10 underlying indicators are now flashing bullish. That matters because a “bull” reading typically requires multiple signals aligning, including activity on-chain and demand behavior rather than price alone.

However, CryptoQuant’s update also sets a clear condition for investors watching whether this is truly a regime shift: Bitcoin needs a weekly close above its 365-day moving average (around $83,000). Without that kind of confirmation, the move could remain vulnerable to volatility even if the longer-term picture improves.

Spot and futures demand begin to align again

One of the more notable elements in CryptoQuant’s assessment is how spot demand and futures demand are behaving together. The firm said that both spot and futures demand are growing in parallel for the first time since early October 2025.

In practical terms, that kind of alignment often suggests the rally isn’t being driven solely by speculative leverage in derivatives markets. When spot interest strengthens alongside futures activity, it can indicate a broader base of buyers rather than a price push that later unwinds.

Even so, CryptoQuant’s view still hinges on follow-through. The firm’s bullish reading can be read as an improving backdrop, but the 365-day moving average requirement underscores that traders may still be waiting for a more durable pattern before fully re-pricing risk.

Key technical levels: $82,820 and the path toward $100,000

Alongside CryptoQuant’s analytics, LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger highlighted a near-term resistance level rooted in Bitcoin’s recent history. He pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as a key marker.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Kruger said a decisive break above that level would reinforce the idea that a meaningful cycle low has already formed. From there, attention would shift toward a larger psychological and technical milestone near $100,000, and ultimately the 2025 record high, as quoted by Kruger.

At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin trading around $79,000. That means the market still has work to do before clearing the levels both analysts flagged—particularly if sellers react to profit-taking after a fast run.

Overheated signals: whale profit-taking and exchange deposits rise

While CryptoQuant emphasized the improving bullish picture, it also warned that the rally may be overheated in the short term. The main concern: rising trader profits, increased profit-taking by large holders (whales), and a surge in Bitcoin moving onto exchanges.

CryptoQuant said unrealized profit margins for traders have climbed to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. The firm also noted a historical reference point within the same cycle: Bitcoin fell about 30% after this metric previously reached 19% in early May, when BTC was trading near $82,000. That doesn’t automatically predict another drop, but it does show that similar “profit stretch” conditions have previously preceded pullbacks.

On the whale side, CryptoQuant reported that short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22. It cited a record $614 million realized on Aug. 20, when Bitcoin traded around $78,000 to $79,000. If realized profits continue to grow, supply pressure can increase—particularly if broader buyers pause after a sharp ascent.

Exchange flows added another caution flag. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin exchange inflows rose to roughly 53,000 BTC, the highest since June. Higher inflows often indicate that more coins are being positioned for potential selling, especially if markets become sensitive to any negative catalyst.

For traders, this creates a tension that can be difficult to navigate: bullish longer-horizon signals are improving, but the distribution dynamics in the near term may raise the odds of a cooling period—even if the larger trend ultimately strengthens.

Going forward, market watchers will likely focus on whether Bitcoin can hold above key moving-average levels near $83,000 on a weekly basis and whether it can convincingly clear the $82,820 threshold highlighted by Kruger. At the same time, the persistence of exchange inflows and whale profit-taking will be critical to judge whether the current rally can consolidate—or whether it stalls as profits are taken.