CryptoQuant: Ethereum Approaches BTC Market Lows, Key Signals Not Confirmed

Ether’s valuation picture is looking more compelling relative to Bitcoin, but on-chain data suggests the market may not yet have reached a decisive long-term bottom. CryptoQuant’s latest weekly analysis points to ETH trading below a key “realized value” benchmark while several other indicators are improving—just not all at the historical turning points seen in prior cycle lows.

In the report, CryptoQuant says ETH is approximately 17% under its realized price, an on-chain metric that reflects the average cost basis of ETH held across the network. That realized value is currently estimated at roughly $2,300, a level that historically has aligned with periods of broad undervaluation and longer-term bottoms. Still, CryptoQuant cautions that only part of its indicator set has reached the extremes typical of fully confirmed cycle transitions.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant estimates ETH is trading about 17% below its realized price (realized value around $2,300), a historically undervalued regime.
• Two of CryptoQuant’s five “bottoming” indicators are at historical reversal levels, while the remaining three are improving but not yet at prior cycle lows.
• ETH relative to BTC shows signs of stabilization: ETH/BTC spot volume has shifted into a range historically seen near market bottoms.
• Exchange inflows appear to be cooling while ETF holdings have started to recover after months of weakness, according to CryptoQuant’s account.
• Ethereum’s circulating supply continues to tighten as staking participation rises, with 34% of supply reported as staked by Staking Rewards.

ETH under realized value, but the bottom isn’t “confirmed”

The core of CryptoQuant’s valuation argument is that ETH is still trading at a discount to realized price. When market participants transact at prices below the average on-chain acquisition cost, it can indicate capitulation-like behavior—especially if sustained. CryptoQuant says this condition previously marked periods of undervaluation and longer-term basing for ETH.

However, the company frames its message carefully: even if the discount is present, a complete bottoming process typically requires multiple on-chain signals to align. In its weekly report, CryptoQuant notes that only two of five bottoming indicators have reached historical reversal levels. The rest are moving in the right direction, but they have not yet reached the extreme readings seen at previous cycle lows.

For traders and investors, the practical takeaway is that ETH’s valuation is improving relative to its own on-chain history, but the market’s “cycle bottom” may still be forming rather than fully established. That distinction matters because the typical pattern of post-bottom recovery can be uneven—particularly when some indicators have flipped while others remain mid-transition.

Shifts in ETH/BTC: cheaper relative to Bitcoin and calmer trading activity

CryptoQuant also highlights ETH’s improving relative posture versus Bitcoin. The analytics firm points to several metrics that, together, suggest Ethereum may be shedding an overvalued phase relative to BTC.

Among the factors cited: CryptoQuant says the ETH market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio has retreated from extreme overvaluation. It also reports that exchange inflows have declined and that ETF holdings have started to recover after months of weakness. On top of that, the firm notes that ETH/BTC spot trading volumes have fallen into a range historically associated with market bottoms.

CryptoQuant’s historical framing is important because it implies investors should consider not only where prices are, but how activity is behaving across markets. A shift toward lower relative volume can indicate reduced speculative churn—often a feature of consolidation during basing phases. At the same time, falling volume can also mean liquidity and volatility conditions are changing, which may affect how quickly price trends develop once sentiment improves.

CryptoQuant data also suggests the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has fallen sharply from nearly 0.95 in August 2025 to around 0.65, signaling that Ethereum has become materially cheaper relative to Bitcoin. That degree of compression is consistent with a market moving away from the kinds of relative richness that can precede drawdowns.

Supply dynamics: exchange outflows, rising staking, and corporate accumulation

Beyond valuation, CryptoQuant’s broader on-chain lens aligns with a tightening supply narrative forming in Ethereum. A key component is exchange behavior. During the week beginning June 29, withdrawal activity on Binance—described in earlier coverage as the largest crypto exchange by trading volume—rose to its highest level in more than three years, according to reporting from Cointelegraph.

While exchange outflows are often interpreted as a sign that holders are moving assets toward self-custody or staking rather than leaving them on exchanges for potential sale, CryptoQuant’s kind of framework typically treats those flows as suggestive rather than determinative. Outflows can coincide with long-term conviction, but they can also reflect operational movements or transfers that do not automatically translate into net accumulation.

On the staking front, Ethereum’s supply appears to be increasingly locked away from immediate trading. Staking Rewards data referenced in the coverage indicates that 34% of Ethereum’s circulating supply is now staked, a record level. This matters because higher staking participation reduces the liquid portion of ETH available for frequent exchange-level trading—potentially easing short-term selling pressure if demand holds up.

Corporate accumulation also factors into the supply story. Cointelegraph previously reported that Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies, identified as the largest corporate ETH holder, increased its holdings by 325,000 ETH over a one-month period even while sitting on large unrealized losses. The company reportedly has a target to hold 5% of the second-biggest crypto.

Taken together, these elements—less ETH sitting on exchanges, more ETH being staked, and large holders adding—create an environment where upward price moves may face less immediate sell pressure than they would in a purely liquidation-driven setup. Still, supply tightness does not guarantee a bottom, which is why CryptoQuant’s multi-indicator approach remains central to its caution.

What’s happening in price action—and why macro optimism could matter

CryptoQuant’s on-chain caution arrives while price action has shown moments of strength. The report notes Ether briefly climbed above $1,950 this week, while Bitcoin topped $67,000, supported by optimism around the US CLARITY Act. The same coverage also references market analysts pointing to the possibility of capital rotating out of richly valued AI stocks and back into crypto—an argument that, if it materializes, could broaden risk appetite and support ETH alongside BTC.

Even so, the on-chain message is not “wait for confirmation” in a vague sense—it is more specific: only two of the five bottoming indicators have reached historical reversal levels, meaning key extremes still appear to be missing. For market participants, that implies monitoring should focus on whether the remaining metrics continue to accelerate toward prior-cycle low patterns rather than treating the current valuation discount as the whole story.

Going forward, the main question is whether the unconfirmed indicators catch up—especially those tied to market behavior such as inflows, valuation extremes, and volume conditions—while staking and exchange outflows keep tightening ETH’s liquid supply. If those trends persist, CryptoQuant’s “improving but not finished” framework could shift toward a more definitive bottoming profile; if they fade, the market may remain in a drawn-out consolidation instead of entering a clean rebound.