Ethereum finds itself in a critical situation. ETH fell below the 50-week EMA at $2,372.88, and on the daily and 4-hour charts, there is increasing selling pressure. The critical question is whether ETH can return above $2,372 and move higher to $2,412-$2,421, or whether the breakdown will continue down to $2,265 and even $2,010.
Key Takeaways
- Price of Ethereum is below the 50-week EMA at $2,372.88, keeping the bearish pattern dominant unless it rallies above this mark.
- $2,365 is the initial downward price level to pay attention to, as a breakdown would lead to an ETH rally toward the $2,265 support region.
- $2,412-$2,421 is the nearest resistive zone for ETH to overcome to increase the chances of rallying toward $2,500-$2,550.
- The 50-week SMA at $2,541.78 is the primary resistive level acting as the upper border of TedPillows’ target region of $2,500-$2,550.
- The number of active addresses reduced from around 458,000 to 430,000, and the number of transactions declined from approximately 2.025 million to 1.75 million.
- ETH might be exposed to around $2,010 on a breakdown below $2,190-$2,265.
Ethereum Price Loses the 50-Week EMA
We took a look at the ETH weekly chart, and $2,372.88 was the crucial point to focus on. ETH was trading at $2,404, only $31 above the 50-week EMA.
At that time, ETH, according to the daily chart, was being quoted at $2,370.97, which is lower than the weekly EMA. The high and low of the daily candle were at $2,427.45 and $2,365.87, respectively.
That puts $2,365 on the immediate downside radar. If ETH can recover above $2,372 and push through the daily 9-day EMA at $2,412.30, buyers could regain some control. Above that, the 4-hour 9-EMA at $2,421.39 becomes the next hurdle.
$2,265 Is the Next Key Level
The 4-hour chart shows how quickly sellers took control. ETH went down from $2,419 to $2,365 within the candle, and therefore the price was about $2,370.22. Also, the RSI went down from 46.44 to 31.52. If the RSI goes below 30, then the coin is considered oversold.
This allows for some sort of bounce, but an oversold RSI does not necessarily guarantee that the downtrend is over. If ETH makes another bounce up to $2,400-$2,421 and fails, sellers may aim for $2,265. The weekly chart indicates the first level of significant support at $2,190-$2,265. In case of failure there, the next key level from the analysis comes at $2,010.
On-Chain Data Is Weakening Too
The on-chain data adds more concern. Ethereum’s market cap stayed around $32.0 billion-$32.4 billion as ETH moved from approximately $2.48K to $2.42K. Since market cap is calculated by multiplying price by circulating supply, a stable market cap alongside a lower ETH price can happen when circulating supply increases. The chart itself does not prove exactly what caused the supply change.
Network activity also moved lower. There was an approximate drop of 6.1% in the number of active addresses, from 458,000 to 430,000.
The number of transactions fell from 2.025 million to 1.75 million, which is an approximate fall of 13.6%. So, both the indicators are declining while ETH loses its technical support.
Ethereum Price: $2,200 or $2,550
The next move comes down to a few clear levels. ETH reclaiming $2,372 and breaking above $2,412-$2,421 will make the bull case more powerful. In that case, the upside target for ETH is seen between $2,500-$2,550, with the 50-week simple moving average $2,541.78 being the key level of resistance. Failure of ETH to retain the $2,365 level will turn the eyes toward $2,265.
For now, the data favors the bearish side. ETH is below the 50-week EMA, below the daily 9-day EMA, below the 4-hour 9-EMA, and network activity has also fallen. The key level to watch is $2,365. Hold it, and ETH could get a relief bounce. Lose it, and $2,265 becomes the next major test.
