Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is retreating from three major markets and slashing 25% of its staff as it recalibrates its global operations. In a Thursday disclosure, the firm cited artificial intelligence-driven automation that makes engineers significantly more efficient and a tougher operating environment in the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia as primary drivers for the pivot. The decision underscores a broader push by crypto players to optimize cost structures amid a difficult macro cycle and regulatory headwinds. Gemini said it will concentrate resources on the US, where it believes capital markets are the strongest, and on developing its prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions, launched in December 2025.
Key takeaways
- Exit from the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia accompanied by a 25% staff reduction, driven by AI-enabled efficiency gains and higher operating costs in those regions.
- Strategic shift toward the US market and the expansion of Gemini Predictions, a prediction market platform that debuted in December 2025 and has since grown to thousands of users.
- Prediction market momentum: quarterly growth in 2024 and early 2026 shows rising activity, with tens of millions of dollars in daily volumes and incumbents like Polymarket and Kalshi dominating the space.
- Broader market context: crypto prices have weakened during a downturn sparked by a October flash crash and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, complicating international expansion for crypto firms.
- The move highlights a strategic bet on data-driven markets and US-centric product development as a path to scale in an environment of tightening liquidity and evolving policy debates.
Market context: The exit comes amid a period of liquidity tightening and regulatory headwinds for the crypto sector. While international expansion has become harder, the emergence of prediction markets as a growth vertical has gained attention, even as liquidity remains concentrated among a few established platforms.
The decision underscores Gemini’s recalibration of its product portfolio around US-based opportunities. By prioritizing Gemini Predictions, the company is signaling that data-driven forecast markets could become a meaningful facet of mainstream crypto activity, potentially diversifying revenue beyond traditional custody and trading services.
Why it matters
The shift to a US-centric strategy matters for users and investors who are watching how crypto firms monetize niche segments beyond spot trading. Prediction markets—where participants bet on outcomes that pay out based on real-world events—have attracted interest as a way to hedge risk or speculate on probability, particularly around policy developments and elections. Gemini’s emphasis on this line of business aligns with a broader industry pivot toward platform-based services and synthetic markets that can scale with fewer physical infrastructure requirements than cross-border exchange operations.
For builders, the development of Gemini Predictions offers another data-rich venue to innovate around markets for information. The platform’s growth metrics cited by Gemini—thousands of users and a meaningful trading volume since its December 2025 launch—suggest there is appetite for structured market-based forecasting within crypto ecosystems. If these platforms can sustain liquidity and deliver low-friction experiences, they could reshape how users interact with information and risk in the digital asset space.
Competitively, the landscape remains led by Polymarket and Kalshi, which together command a substantial share of 24-hour prediction market volume. The dominance of a few incumbents highlights both the opportunity and the execution challenge for entrants attempting to carve out meaningful market share in a relatively nascent sector. The trajectory of Gemini Predictions will be watched as a proxy for whether the broader crypto market can translate interest in prediction markets into durable user engagement and revenue.
The international retreat also mirrors a broader caution among crypto operators as the industry grapples with macro headwinds and uncertain policy signals. The October flash crash that rattled asset prices and the stalled CLARITY Act—an anticipated US market-structure bill—have tempered enthusiasm for aggressive cross-border expansion. In that context, Gemini’s decision to concentrate resources on a domestically focused initiative may be a pragmatic bet on a clearer regulatory path and stronger demand within the US ecosystem.
Gemini asserts that America’s capital markets are unrivaled, a contention echoed by the firm’s leadership as it frames the US as the primary arena for future growth. The company’s push into predictions dovetails with a broader investor interest in alternative data and event-driven markets, where outcomes—such as policy decisions, elections, or corporate milestones—can be translated into traded forecasts. The announcement notes that Gemini Predictions has already attracted more than 10,000 users and generated about $24 million in trading volume since its launch, illustrating a tangible early traction that could underpin longer-term expansion plans in a US-centric environment.
The macro backdrop remains a critical driver behind the shift. Crypto markets have faced a prolonged downturn since a sharp October selloff, and the industry continues to weigh regulatory developments that could unlock or constrain new business lines. The CLARITY Act, a widely discussed US market structure proposal, has stalled, injecting a measure of policy uncertainty into expansion plans that rely on a favorable regulatory framework. In this context, concentrating on a domestic, potentially more predictable regulatory environment could help Gemini accelerate product development and user acquisition within a single jurisdiction before exploring broader international opportunities again.
What to watch next
- Metrics for Gemini Predictions: user growth, total trading volume, and new features or markets added in the US.
- Any re-entry or gradual expansion into other regions as regulatory frameworks evolve or as cost structures stabilize.
- Regulatory developments around the CLARITY Act and other US crypto market structure discussions that could influence platform-based offerings.
- Market share dynamics among prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, and entrants) as liquidity and user demand evolve.
Sources & verification
- Gemini’s official announcement outlining the UK/EU/Australia exit, staff reductions, and a pivot to US-focused initiatives, including Gemini Predictions.
- Dune Analytics: prediction market overview and liquidity data used to illustrate market concentration and volume trends.
- Data points on Gemini Predictions: user counts and trading volume since launch (as cited in Gemini’s announcement).
- Cointelegraph coverage referencing US election-driven growth in crypto prediction markets and related market dynamics.
Gemini pivots to US-focused strategy as international markets wind down
Gemini’s Thursday disclosure makes clear that the firm intends to realign resources toward areas with higher growth potential and clearer path to scale. The company argues that foreign markets have been hard to win for a blend of regulatory complexity and operational friction, which has translated into a higher cost base and slower execution. The closure of UK, EU, and Australian operations reduces a layer of regulatory exposure and overhead that, in Gemini’s view, did not translate into commensurate demand. The 25% workforce reduction compounds this recalibration, reflecting a broader trend among crypto firms seeking to optimize cost structures in a market characterized by slower-than-expected adoption in some geographies.
At the core of the pivot is Gemini Predictions, the platform launched in December 2025 as part of the company’s broader push into event-based markets. The idea is to position prediction markets as a central pillar of the firm’s platform, with an ambition to become as large as, or larger than, traditional capital markets in the long run. While early metrics—10,000 users and $24 million in trading volume to date—signal credible traction, the path to scale will depend on maintaining liquidity, expanding the universe of tradable events, and delivering a user experience that can compete with incumbents in a market that already shows concentration of activity among a few established players. The platform’s visibility increased during periods of high political and economic uncertainty, where event-driven forecasting can provide a structured way to hedge or speculate on outcomes.
The strategic emphasis on the US market is notable given the size and maturity of American financial markets, but it also places Gemini in a framework where regulatory clarity could unlock new product use cases. While the CLARITY Act remains unsettled, the company’s approach suggests that a domestic, steady regulatory ground could enable more features, partnerships, and integrations that augment the value proposition of prediction markets for retail and professional participants alike. The shift may also influence how other exchanges and fintechs allocate resources between international expansion and US-focused product development, particularly for offerings that blend traditional financial concepts with blockchain-enabled capabilities.
In the broader crypto ecosystem, the exit from several major regions comes as digital asset prices continue a downcycle that began amid a complex mix of macro pressures and industry-specific headaches. The ongoing debate over crypto market structure and the pace of regulatory reform has kept some companies cautious about international expansion while emphasizing investments in products with clearer revenue models and user engagement metrics. Gemini’s decision to lean into predictions reflects a calculated wager that forecasting markets—grounded in data and user participation—could become a durable and scalable revenue stream even as the broader trading ecosystem faces volatility and scrutiny.
Ultimately, the trajectory of Gemini Predictions will be a useful barometer for this niche within crypto: can a prediction market platform, backed by a legacy exchange, attract sustained liquidity and mainstream interest? If the early momentum continues, the US-centric focus could accelerate product development, generate recurring revenue through offerings tied to real-world events, and deepen user engagement as traders seek structured ways to gauge probabilities in a fast-evolving landscape.
As the industry continues to navigate a shifting regulatory and macro backdrop, Gemini’s latest moves illustrate a pragmatic approach: shrink exposure where the cost-to-benefit ratio is unfavorable, and double down on product bets that align with evolving user demand and policy trajectories. Whether Gemini Predictions becomes a defining growth driver for the firm remains to be seen, but the current strategy signals a deliberate pivot toward building scalable, data-driven markets within the most active financial ecosystem in the world—the United States.
