Novogratz predicts US Clarity Act to pass in May, shaping crypto rules

The US CLARITY Act, a cornerstone proposal aimed at delivering regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, appears poised for finalization in May, according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. In a SkyBridge Capital podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz forecast that the bill would move to the committee in the first week of May and could reach the president’s desk for signing as soon as June, signaling a potential climate shift for US crypto policy. He stressed that bipartisan consensus is crucial for sustaining American innovation in finance and technology.

The forecast comes amid a thinner-than-expected week for crypto legislation in Congress, as the Senate Banking Committee did not schedule a markup hearing by Friday—crucial momentum that markets had anticipated. Even as the timetable remains uncertain, Novogratz argued that the CLARITY Act would unlock new pathways for institutional participation, including tokenizing and selling major U.S. entities to global investors.

Key takeaways

• May emergence: Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz forecasts the CLARITY Act’s finalization in May, with a potential June signing, hinging on committee action and bipartisan alignment.
• Tokenization promise: The bill is framed as enabling the tokenization of large institutions—an idea Novogratz says could broaden access to global markets for US-based assets.
• Current friction: The Senate Banking Committee did not hold a markup as expected, underscoring ongoing negotiations and political headwinds that could affect timing.
• Backstop from lawmakers: Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that the window to pass the CLARITY Act may be narrowing, framing it as a critical juncture for America’s financial future.

The CLARITY Act in a moment of regulatory tension

Novogratz’ outlook reflects a broader market longing for clarity after years of regulatory ambiguity that contributed to some crypto firms relocating operations abroad during the prior administration. He argued that the CLARITY Act’s passage would be a watershed, not only for crypto markets but for broader innovation in the United States. The explicit prospect of tokenizing globally accessible corporate assets—such as SpaceX and Google—could redefine how capital markets allocate risk and reward across borders.

“This phone with a crypto wallet is going to be the way the kid in Bhutan or Batswana or Bolivia or Paraguay, you name it, is participating in the American economy.”

The notion that personal devices could serve as gateways to a broad, tokenized financial system underscores the Act’s potential reach. Still, the road to passage has been far from smooth. The bill previously cleared the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support, raising expectations that a broader consensus might now carry it through Senate deliberations. Yet, disputes over how stablecoins interact with traditional banking—particularly whether yields from stablecoins could erode banks’ competitiveness—have kept the legislation in a gridlock that many market participants find frustrating.

Industry sentiment: timelines and odds

Industry insiders remain divided on the likelihood of timely passage. Galaxy Digital chief of firmwide research Alex Thorn suggested in a social post that the current odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 were around 50%. Thorn noted in accompanying commentary that the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee was expected to set a markup hearing in the near term, a signal that momentum could resume, though a concrete timetable did not materialize as anticipated. He cautioned that if markup slips past mid-May, the odds of passage could deteriorate appreciably.

The regulatory backdrop remains the primary overhang for the sector. Proponents argue that clear, durable rules would unlock capital access and catalyze domestic innovation, while critics warn of potential risk gaps if the framework does not fully address the evolving realities of digital assets, including stablecoins and tokenized assets. The tension between banking interests and crypto advocates has been a persistent feature of the debate, complicating simple pass/fail predictions for the CLARITY Act.

As part of the broader narrative, investors and builders are watching how the bill’s provisions would interact with existing financial infrastructure. A successful enactment could potentially redraw the map for institutional participation in digital assets and open new funding channels for innovative projects that have faced regulatory hurdles in the current environment. The House’s prior passage in 2025 offered a signal that lawmakers recognize the strategic importance of crypto regulation—yet the Senate pace and its negotiations have so far determined the pace of any final approval.

What changes, what remains uncertain, and what to watch next

The core shift proposed by the CLARITY Act is regulatory clarity—reducing the ambiguity that has long stoked caution among banks, insurers, and asset managers contemplating digital-asset exposure. If enacted, the law could pave the way for more standardized treatment of digital securities, stablecoins, and tokenized equities, while clarifying enforcement expectations for issuers and platforms. That kind of clarity can have a tangible impact on capital formation, product development, and the strategic decisions of large tech and industrial players contemplating tokenized offerings.

At the same time, several critical uncertainties remain. The precise legislative language, the final stance of key committee chairs, and the political dynamics across both parties will shape whether the bill can clear the Senate in 2026. The parallel discussions around stablecoin regulation and the accounting of tokenized assets will also influence how aggressively firms pursue tokenized products once a framework is in place. For investors, the takeaway is not a guaranteed breakthrough but the potential for a meaningful policy inflection that could reorient risk, funding, and growth trajectories in the crypto economy.

Meanwhile, proponents emphasize that the clock is not just about passing a single bill but about signaling to the global market that the United States remains open to responsible innovation. The House’s July 2025 vote underscores a legislative appetite for a credible regulatory path, yet the Senate’s pace underscores how political, regulatory, and industry fault lines can extend timelines. Those dynamics will be crucial as the spring and early summer sessions unfold and the crypto policy discourse moves from committee rooms to a broader national conversation.

What readers should watch next is how the Senate addresses the markup process and whether a bipartisan framework can crystallize around the act’s provisions. If May brings a committee referral followed by timely floor action, the CLARITY Act could emerge as a defining moment for crypto regulation in the United States—one that not only clarifies the rules of the road for digital assets but also shapes the market’s willingness to embrace tokenized capital in the years ahead.

Source tracking and attribution: Statements about timing and committee action reflect remarks attributed to Mike Novogratz on a SkyBridge Capital podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, and the broader timeline context comes from coverage surrounding the bill’s progress, including Lummis’ warning about the window to pass the CLARITY Act and Galaxy Digital’s commentary on the likelihood of a 2026 passage. Past House passage and related industry chatter provide additional context for the current momentum and the anticipated debate in the Senate.