Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to face selling pressure as it tries to defend a key zone around $67,000, with bears pressing at every incline. The $65,118 support remains a focal point for downside risk, while the upside faces hurdles near $72,000 and $74,508. The longer-term picture is complicated by a pair of moving averages that traders watch closely: the 200-week simple moving average sits near $58,371, while the 200-week exponential moving average hovers around $68,065. The current positioning near the 200-week EMA has prompted some analysts to suggest that BTC may be near a bottom, even as near-term momentum remains fragile.
Analysts have pointed to long-run price action to argue that a bottom could be forming. On X, analyst Jelle observed that almost all of BTC’s significant bottoms formed within the range defined by the 200-week SMA and the 200-week EMA, and he noted that trading near the 200-week EMA might indicate that the bottoming process has begun. That view is echoed by others who study short- and mid-term cycles, suggesting that a durable bottom could be emerging even if volatility remains elevated in the near term. In tandem with this assessment, market watchers highlighted that BTC’s path remains sensitive to macro shocks and micro-structure signals as traders try to discern a durable foundation for a broader recovery.
Matrixport offered a similar read, arguing that BTC may be approaching a durable bottom as sentiment indicators flip from negative to positive. The firm noted that when its daily sentiment indicator’s 21-day moving average dips below zero and then turns upward, selling pressure tends to ease, increasing the odds of a meaningful upside attempt. While such readings do not guarantee an immediate rally, they create a frame of reference for risk-takers who seek to gauge whether sellers are drying up and buyers are growing more aggressive. The bottom line from this view is that BTC could be approaching an inflection point even if the near term still looks susceptible to downside noise.
An additional tailwind cited by a Wells Fargo analyst, Ohsung Kwon, was a potential increase in demand driven by tax refunds. In a note seen by CNBC, Kwon suggested that refunds—especially among higher-income households—could flow into equities and BTC, rekindling the so-called “YOLO” trade. The interplay between consumer liquidity and risk assets remains a critical driver of price action, and the idea that tax-related inflows could buttress a market that has struggled to sustain momentum is shaping expectations for a potential rebound.
The question on many traders’ lips is whether BTC and its leading altcoins can surmount overhead resistance and reestablish a constructive trend. The immediate challenge remains a confluence of resistance around the 20-day moving average and notable round numbers, with a potential pivot to a stronger ascent if buyers can push beyond those barriers. For BTC specifically, there is a clear roadmap: a successful push above the 20-day EMA around $72,282 and the $74,508 threshold could usher in a renewed upside, potentially opening a path to the 50-day simple moving average near $83,129. Conversely, a failure to hold above the critical $65,118 support could invite a rapid test of the next major line near $60,000, with a risk of accelerating declines if selling intensifies.
Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has managed to keep a constructive posture above the immediate support at $1,897, suggesting that buyers are still defending the downside. The next test is the overhead zone around the 20-day EMA at $2,183. If bulls can clear that area, a more pronounced recovery could unfold toward the 50-day moving average near $2,707. A failure to hold the $1,897 floor would likely invite a renewed pullback toward the $1,750 level, with a deeper break potentially exposing the $1,537 area as a critical line in the sand for bulls to defend.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA around $1.52, signaling ongoing pressure from sellers but also a willingness among bulls to defend the line. A decisive move above the 20-day EMA and the $1.61 breakdown level could set XRP on a path toward the 50-day SMA near $1.80, keeping the pair within its current channel for now. A sustained move below the channel’s support could intensify selling and push XRP toward lower supports, testing the stability of the current range.
BNB (CRYPTO: BNB) has traded in a narrow range, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers. A breakdown below the $570 support could signal a resumption of the downtrend, potentially dragging the pair toward the $500 psyche level. If buyers manage to push above the 20-day EMA around $676, the path could open to a rally toward $730 and then toward $790, where bears are expected to reassert control.
Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) continues to face resistance near the $95 mark, a level that has previously capped upside. A slip below $76 would be a warning sign that bears are reasserting themselves and could turn the $95 threshold into a new ceiling. Should buyers manage to push through the $95 level, the next target would likely be the 50-day SMA around $116, a level where selling pressure historically intensifies as traders reassess risk.
Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has hovered just under the 20-day EMA at roughly $0.10, a pattern that suggests a potential breakout to the upside if selling pressure remains light. A sustained push above the $0.12 resistance could set DOGE on a course toward the 50-day SMA near $0.12 and beyond, potentially reaching the $0.16 level if buyers grow more aggressive. If price action fails to clear the $0.12 resistance, a consolidation range between roughly $0.08 and $0.12 could prevail for several sessions.
Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) has traded between its moving averages, signaling indecision about the next directional move. The 20-day EMA around $547 and the RSI’s intermediate position imply a possible upside breakout if demand strengthens, potentially pushing BCH toward $600 and then toward $630. A break below the 20-day EMA could invite a correction toward $500 as bears gain ground.
Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) closed below the 20-day EMA recently, underscoring selling pressure at higher levels. The path of least resistance would depend on whether buyers can sustain a move above the 50-day SMA around $27.74; failing that, a slide toward the $20.82 support area could unfold. A breakout above the $32.50 barrier would be a bullish signal, potentially leading to a rally into the $38.42–$35.50 zone as momentum compresses in the near term.
Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) has held near the 20-day EMA of about $0.29, suggesting that bulls are keeping the pressure on the downside. A sustained move above the 20-day EMA could carry ADA toward the downtrend line, which has historically acted as a strong resistance. If buyers manage to pierce the downtrend, the price could advance toward $0.44 and then to $0.50. Conversely, a break below the current support could push ADA down toward the $0.15 region, underscoring the risk of a renewed downleg if buyers fail to defend critical levels.
Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has not breached the key $360 breakdown threshold, with bulls maintaining the immediate support near $309. A sustained push above the 20-day EMA around $366 could open a path toward the 50-day SMA near $449, where bears are expected to reassert themselves. A break below $309 would suggest that bears are regaining control and could test the crucial $276 support, potentially leading to a contained range if buyers respond with resilience at that level.
