Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick says he believes crypto prices have already marked the low of the current cycle, pointing to a trio of signals he wants to see align before he fully confirms a turnaround. In his view, Strategy’s recent Bitcoin buying, renewed demand for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and continued weakness in oil prices are together shaping a more constructive backdrop for risk assets like crypto.
In a client note published Friday, Kendrick put a specific level on his “cycle low” framework, estimating the trough at $59,000 for Bitcoin—about 53% below the asset’s prior cycle peak near $126,000. He also cited market reference pricing, noting Bitcoin last traded on Sunday around $63,704, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Key takeaways
- Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered argues crypto has likely seen the cycle low, estimating Bitcoin’s trough at about $59,000.
- He highlights three confirmation indicators: additional Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, positive inflows into BTC ETFs on Friday, and further declines in oil prices.
- SoSoValue data shows US Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $85.84 million on Friday, with money flowing into five funds.
- Oil futures fell for a second straight day on Friday, according to Yahoo Finance data—part of Kendrick’s broader “macro risk” read-through.
- The discussion comes as Strategy continues to provoke debate with its reported ability to sell Bitcoin for its “digital credit” business.
Standard Chartered’s “cycle low” checklist
Kendrick’s approach is not a single-price call—he ties his thesis to observable market flows and macro conditions. The most direct market-action item is Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation, which he described in reference to reporting that the firm bought more Bitcoin last week.
In addition, Kendrick looked to ETF flows. According to data tracked by SoSoValue, Friday brought one-day net inflows of $85.84 million into US-traded Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick’s note also reflects a distribution detail that matters for investors watching breadth: investors allocated into five of the funds, while eight saw no net change on the day.
The third leg of the framework is crude oil. Kendrick pointed to evidence that oil prices were continuing to break lower, with Yahoo Finance data showing crude oil futures fell on Friday for the second consecutive day. For investors, this is relevant because falling oil can shift expectations across inflation, growth, and broader risk appetite—variables that often influence liquidity-sensitive assets such as crypto.
After laying out the indicators, Kendrick ended his note with a seasonal metaphor: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”
Strategy’s buying signals and Saylor’s “dots”
As Kendrick’s note circulated, Strategy founder Michael Saylor issued another social-media prompt that traders and long-time followers often treat as a prelude to further Bitcoin purchases. On Sunday, Saylor posted “Still adding dots,” alongside the bubble/dot chart format that has become closely associated with Strategy’s periodic purchase messaging.
The post drew significant attention on X by mid-afternoon ET, according to the article context, underscoring how retail and institutional audiences monitor Strategy’s communications as part of their own flow expectations—even when the underlying purchases ultimately depend on execution and timing.
What the ETF inflow data suggests—and what to watch next
ETF inflows are among the most watched behavioral indicators in Bitcoin markets because they translate a portion of demand into a regulated wrapper and can be tracked daily. On Friday, the $85.84 million net inflow figure cited by SoSoValue suggests that, at least for that session, buyers showed up even as the market had been testing a lower range.
However, Kendrick’s thesis is best read as a demand-for-confirmation setup rather than a guarantee. The “confirmation” theme matters: one strong inflow day is not the same as sustained accumulation, and oil’s trajectory can also change quickly. For investors, the practical question going forward is whether the combination Kendrick listed—Strategy accumulation, repeat ETF inflows, and continued pressure on oil—persists beyond isolated data points.
Another angle is that the distribution across funds matters. Kendrick’s referenced split (five funds receiving inflows, eight unchanged) hints that demand was not concentrated into a single vehicle, but it also stops short of signaling broad-based acceleration across every ETF immediately.
The “sell” debate inside Strategy’s digital credit model
The turnaround narrative arrives alongside a separate development that has shaped how some observers interpret Strategy’s Bitcoin policy. Cointelegraph previously reported that Strategy disclosed its first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022, offloading 32 BTC in a June 1 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The sale appeared to conflict with Saylor’s well-known “never sell your Bitcoin” messaging.
In defense of the decision, Saylor argued that the capacity to sell is necessary to support Strategy’s “digital credit” business. As he explained in remarks at BTC Prague, if the company’s policy prevented selling Bitcoin entirely, it could undermine the value proposition for the credit products tied to Bitcoin treasury holdings—because dividend-paying securities and other BTC-backed credit structures may require flexibility in how collateral is managed.
This matters for crypto investors because it reframes what “accumulation” means in Strategy’s context. Rather than portraying Bitcoin holdings as entirely untouchable, the company’s position—based on the reported comments—suggests a balancing act between keeping exposure and preserving the operational ability to support credit issuance and payout mechanics.
So while Kendrick is focused on signals that Strategy is buying more, the broader investor question is whether Strategy’s credit strategy could also introduce future episodes of selling that are conditional on market and product needs. For traders, that nuance can influence expectations around how much “buy-side” momentum to assume from headlines alone.
For the next phase, readers should watch whether ETF inflows continue across multiple sessions rather than just one day, and whether oil’s downtrend persists alongside ongoing signals of Strategy accumulation—while also tracking any additional disclosures that clarify how often Strategy’s “digital credit” requirements could translate into Bitcoin sales.
