Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) is facing increasing index-related selling pressure as Bitcoin currently trades for $86,823 as of November 23, 2025, following last week’s dip below $82,000, according to CoinMarketCap.
With the increasing risk of rejection from major equity indices, JP Morgan sees as much as $8.8 billion in forced redemptions from passive funds, which includes around $2.8 billion that is directly linked to the MSCI indices, with the remainder potentially coming if the Nasdaq 100 and other providers follow suit.
$1 Trillion Crypto Wipeout Exposes the Cracks in Saylor’s Masterplan
Strategy holds 649,870 BTC, purchased at an average price of $74,433 for a total cost basis of $48.37 billion. The company’s treasury has generated a 27.8% year-to-date Bitcoin yield through November and an unrealized gain of approximately 15.8% as of mid-month.
The company’s market-cap-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) multiple has reduced to around 1.19x, the lowest since the pandemic era, following a general crypto market decline that has erased $1 trillion in total capitalization over the last month.
Shares closed Friday, November 21, 2025, at $170.50 and were last quoted at $172.82 in Sunday trading, down roughly 40% over the past month and 68% from all-time highs.
The Day Strategy Could Lose Billions in Passive Money
The risk is believed to be caused by the ongoing MSCI consultation, which is scheduled to close on December 31, 2025. The MSCI consultation proposes reclassifying companies whose cryptocurrency holdings exceed 50% of total assets as “digital asset treasury companies.”
Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury currently represents more than 77% of its balance sheet, well above the proposed threshold. A final decision is expected on or around January 15, 2026, with any changes taking effect in February.
Passive vehicles tracking the MSCI USA, Nasdaq 100, and related indices currently hold an estimated $9 billion of Strategy stock. Any forced selling during rebalancing periods would be mechanical and largely price-insensitive, creating a potential feedback loop of downward pressure.
The $8.8 Billion Question Hanging Over Every Bitcoin Treasury Stock
S&P Global already gives Strategy’s debt a junk rating on the basis of concentration risk and volatility. The recent sell-off in the company’s preferred shares has also raised the effective cost of future capital raises.
Saylor has defended the treasury strategy as an efficient way to “sell volatility and recycle it back into Bitcoin,” while pointing to the company’s software business and AI products as evidence it remains an operating company.
Traders also point out that a continued Bitcoin recovery above $100,000 would likely expand the mNAV premium and reduce exclusion risk. A further 15% decline from current price levels would push the treasury position down close to its $74,433 average acquisition cost.
