Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday as the price slipped below $69,000—the lowest level since November 6, 2024. The move underscored a backdrop of extreme market fear and frantic margin risk, with analysts contending that a potential bottom could be taking shape as short-term holders capitulate and on-chain activity points to exhausted selling. While the technical backdrop remains fragile, a cluster of indicators suggests that the recent wave of panic may be approaching a climax, though traders are wary of any renewed macro catalysts or liquidity shocks.
Key takeaways
- Short-term holders moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges in the last 24 hours, signaling acute selling pressure and a large inflow that has contributed to the downside momentum.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered “extreme fear,” a level that has historically preceded a bottom and a subsequent bounce in prior cycles.
- Bitcoin’s RSI has reached multi-timeframe oversold levels, indicating seller exhaustion in several horizons and the potential for a near-term rebound if demand returns.
- Glassnode data show the seven-day moving average of realized losses climbing above $1.26 billion per day, a sign of rising fear in on-chain behavior and a potential capitulation event.
- Bitcoin’s capitulation metric posted its second-largest spike in two years, a pattern that historically aligns with rapid de-risking and heightened volatility as traders reset positions.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The renewed selling pressure and significant exchange inflows pushed BTC below key support, intensifying near-term downside risk as market participants reassess risk exposure.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of extreme fear, oversold RSI, and on-chain capitulation signals could precede a relief rally, but risk management remains essential while the market tests support levels.
Market context: The price action unfolds amid fragile liquidity conditions and a broader risk-off environment that has weighed on crypto assets. As traders parse on-chain signals against macro headlines, episodic capitulation events have tended to precede volatile but recoverable periods, with price action often drifting between fear-driven capitulation and later upside momentum once conviction returns.
Why it matters
The current wave of selling—centered on short-term holders—highlights a critical phase in the Bitcoin cycle. When a large bloc of supply shifts to exchanges at a loss in a short window, it can create a temporary liquidity squeeze that tests the resilience of bids at nearby levels. In the latest data, roughly 60,000 BTC moved from short-term holders to wallets on centralized venues in just one day, a move valued at about $4.2 billion at prevailing prices. This inflow exacerbates selling pressure, particularly in a market that has already faced a string of sharper-than-expected corrections. The dynamic underscores the risk that fresh headlines or macro surprises could reintroduce volatility before buyers re-emerge.”
Another powerful signal comes from the Fear & Greed Index, which sits in the realm of “extreme fear.” The gauge has historically punctured lower during capitulations, yet it also marks a potential turning point when fear peaks. The latest reading aligns with other cycles where a bottoming process has followed intense pessimism, before sentiment gradually shifts as risk appetites reappear among value-focused or long-term participants.
On-chain psychology also appears to be stabilizing, even as prices test psychological thresholds. Glassnode notes that the seven-day realized-loss metric has climbed past $1.26 billion per day, reflecting a surge in realized losses across the market. In their view, spikes in realized losses often coincide with moments of acute seller exhaustion, where marginal selling pressure begins to fade as market participants mark down losses and reassess risk. The capitulation metric, meanwhile, recorded its second-largest spike in two years, signaling a period of aggressive de-risking that typically precedes a more orderly reallocation of exposure once price discovery resumes.
The RSI, a widely watched momentum indicator, also reinforced the notion of an oversold regime across multiple timeframes. Coinglass’ heatmap shows BTC’s RSI flashing oversold conditions on five of six studied horizons. Specifically, the 12-hour RSI sits around 18, the daily around 20, and the four-hour near 23, with weekly and hourly readings also signaling distress. Some analysts have pointed to the weekly RSI near 29 as the most oversold level since the 2022 bear market, a milestone that has historically preceded relief rallies rather than fresh lows. In a market known for abrupt shifts, such readings are often interpreted as evidence of seller exhaustion rather than a guarantee of near-term direction.
Market observers have not avoided drawing parallels to prior capitulation episodes. A prominent sentiment analyst argued that this is “the most oversold” condition since the FTX crash, hinting that panic-driven selling could be approaching a climax even as price action remains fragile. Others urged patience, suggesting that risk/reward can improve when major players either accumulate at discounted levels or when the small-trader crowd exhibits a degree of disbelief that helps shore up a bottoming process. The broader narrative remains clear: extreme fear plus concentrated selling could lay the groundwork for a counter-move, but confirmation will come only with sustained price action and a shift in on-chain behavior.
Analysts cautioned that while the current conditions are telling, they do not guarantee a bottom that will immediately resume a longer-term uptrend. The price regime remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in macro liquidity, regulatory developments, or shifts in major exchange flows. Yet, the logic of capitulation—defined by a broad-based exit from risk and the erosion of conditionally profitable positions—has historically been followed by a re-pricing of risk as buyers step back in and price discovery restarts. In this context, several voices have framed this phase as a potentially fertile point for accumulation, provided that risk controls are in place and the market finds a credible catalyst to re-anchor value expectations.
What to watch next
- Price stabilization near current support levels and any intraday rebound following the extreme fear readings.
- Further on-chain data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode showing whether short-term holder outflows ease and whether realized losses begin to retreat.
- The evolution of RSI across multiple timeframes and any divergence that could hint at renewed buying interest.
- Liquidity conditions and macro developments that could reintroduce coordinated bid support for BTC and risk assets more broadly.
Sources & verification
- CryptoQuant data on 60,000 BTC moving to exchanges by short-term holders over 24 hours.
- Glassnode commentary on seven-day realized losses averaging above $1.26 billion per day and the capitulation metric spike.
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading at extreme fear (12) and historical context for similar levels.
- Coinglass RSI heatmap showing oversold conditions across multiple timeframes for BTC, including weekly RSI near 29.
- Santiment and other analyst commentary referencing sentiment shifts and potential near-term relief rallies.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded with renewed weakness on Thursday as the price slipped below $69,000, a level not seen since November 2024. The move came amid a confluence of on-chain signals and sentiment metrics that suggest investors are bracing for further volatility while some traders anticipate a bottom could be forming. The latest data show a substantial transfer of BTC from short-term holders—investors with a holding period under 155 days—to exchanges, with roughly 60,000 BTC moved in a single 24-hour period. At current prices this corresponds to about $4.2 billion in value, highlighting the scale of the near-term selling pressure and its potential to prolong downside risk if bids remain thin.
Observers on X noted that “the correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs,” underscoring a perceived capitulation among longer-term investors who might otherwise absorb losses and help stabilize prices. The sentiment is echoed in the weekly RSI readings, which place Bitcoin in a deeply oversold territory not seen in years. The heatmap from Coinglass confirms that the RSI is oversold on five of six timeframes, with readings such as 18 on the 12-hour and 20 on the daily frame, among others, signaling that selling pressure could be drying up even as prices test critical support. While some analysts describe the situation as an opportunity for buyers, others warn that risk remains high until a durable bid is reestablished and macro catalysts align with improved liquidity conditions.
The fear-driven mood is reinforced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which sat deeply in the “extreme fear” zone. Historical patterns suggest that such levels often precede a turning point, though there is no guarantee of a swift recovery. Analysts have pointed to past episodes where heavy selling pressure and a retreat from risk assets gave way to a slower, more deliberate re-pricing of risk and a gradual incursion of buyers who see value at muted prices. Yet, the path forward remains contingent on a confluence of supportive signals, including on-chain activity that signals accumulation and renewed bid depth in the order book.
Several observers note that while the immediate narrative remains bearish, the prevailing combination of oversold momentum, high realized losses, and isolated capitulation spikes can set the stage for a temporary relief rally if buying interest returns and risk sentiment improves. The debate among market participants continues to hinge on whether the current episode is a definitive bottoming process or merely a dread-filled pause before fresh downside. As always, investors should watch liquidity, regulatory developments, and macro cues for decisive clues about the next leg of the cycle.
