Bitcoin’s price has dropped below $100k again, leading many to chant the “buy the dip” mantra. However, I offer a different viewpoint: Do not buy the dip. It’s essential to note that nothing in this Take should be considered investment advice.
Why do I advise against buying the dip? It’s not because I suddenly dislike bitcoin. I have specific reasons for this suggestion.
Firstly, I aim to prevent you from being exit liquidity for individuals exploiting market conditions. Secondly, I prefer to purchase bitcoin at a genuine discount rather than when it merely appears to be discounted.
Currently, bitcoin is trading approximately 13% lower than its all-time highs. While this may seem significant in traditional finance terms, it’s relatively minor in the world of bitcoin’s volatile price fluctuations.
Throughout the four-year bitcoin cycles, there is a pattern of price surges during and after halving events followed by a subsequent year of price decline. This decline typically leads to prices around the previous cycle’s peak.
For instance, in 2022, bitcoin’s price plummeted to $15,500, $3,500 below the previous cycle’s high of $20,000. If a similar scenario unfolds in 2026, we might see bitcoin around $53k, representing a substantial discount worth considering.
I share this perspective not to discourage consistent investment via a dollar-cost averaging strategy but to offer a cautious approach to new investors in bitcoin.
Although potential developments like a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the U.S. and companies adding bitcoin to their treasuries are promising, there are also instances of countries like Bhutan and Germany, along with companies like Tesla, offloading bitcoin.
While there may be another year of bitcoin price growth ahead, history suggests a significant drop could be on the horizon, presenting an ideal buying opportunity.
When the time comes, I will be actively investing in bitcoin. This article reflects a Take, with opinions solely belonging to the author and not BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
