Bitcoin Bull Market Seen as Confirmed, but $90K Profit-Taking Risk

Bitcoin is entering what on-chain analysts describe as its “next real test” near the $90,000 mark, with traders potentially taking profits as price approaches a cluster of supply from investors who bought BTC one to three months earlier. While CryptoQuant frames the move as a pause inside a broader uptrend, the $88,000–$90,000 zone is now viewed as the clearest near-term resistance to clear.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly research also points to stabilizing profitability signals in 2026 and highlights a shift in the market structure—especially the growing role of institutional participation—that, according to CEO Ki Young Ju, may dampen the depth of future cycle extremes.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant expects higher odds of profit-taking if Bitcoin trades into the $88,000–$90,000 area, described as the next resistance cluster.
• Traders’ realized price is cited around $64,300, with an “upper band” near $90,300 that could stretch profit margins and trigger selling.
• CryptoQuant says the path from roughly $86,000 to the profit-taking zone is “largely clear” and does not imply a return to bear-market conditions.
• Ki Young Ju argues institutional ownership can make future cycle tops and bottoms “shallower,” reducing both upside and downside extremes.
• CoinShares data cited by Cointelegraph previously—and CryptoQuant’s own framing—tie the current bull-case to profitability metrics like MVRV stabilizing through 2026.

Why $90,000 is now the “profit-taking” checkpoint

In a weekly report released Tuesday, CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin’s trading zone around $90,000 could face increased selling pressure if price reaches it. The reasoning centers on realized profitability—how much profit or loss current market participants are sitting on based on when they last acquired BTC on-chain.

CryptoQuant uses “realized price” as the average acquisition price of coins last moved between one and three months ago. The analytics firm places this realized price around $64,300, and highlights upper and lower bands around that level to show where profit or loss margins may widen for this cohort of supply.

According to CryptoQuant, the upper “profit-taking” band sits near $90,300—roughly 40% above the realized price. The report links that band with an on-chain supply cluster formed between $88,000 and $90,000, calling it the next resistance investors must absorb.

“The upper band coincides with the $88K–$90K on-chain supply cluster, making it the next resistance to clear. Historically, as price approaches the upper band, trader profit margins stretch and selling can intensify — a natural pause point within an uptrend, not a reversal,” CryptoQuant analysts wrote.

Importantly for market participants, CryptoQuant describes the route from the current spot level near $86,000 to the profit-taking zone as “largely clear.” The firm also says there are no signs that price action is dragging the market back toward bear-market conditions. In other words, the $90,000 test is framed more as a liquidity and positioning hurdle than as an immediate thesis break.

From “bear market” to “bull confirmation,” according to CryptoQuant

Alongside the profit-taking analysis, CryptoQuant reiterates its broader bullish assessment. The firm states that technical, valuation, and on-chain indicators now align in favor of an uptrend, echoing earlier comments made by CEO Ki Young Ju.

Ki has argued previously that the market’s structure is changing, which can influence how sharply price responds during cycle transitions. In a recent post on X, he suggested that both future cycle tops and bottoms may look less extreme than in prior eras because institutional ownership has increased relative to retail participation.

“Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside,” Ki Young Ju wrote.

That framing matters for traders because a market dominated more by institutional allocation may react differently to liquidity shocks than one driven primarily by retail leverage. While CryptoQuant’s latest report does not claim that volatility disappears, it suggests the distribution of risk and selling pressure may be less binary than in earlier cycles.

Profitability signals: what CryptoQuant says changed in 2026

CryptoQuant’s research also highlights a profitability stability theme during 2026. In particular, Ki Young Ju pointed to the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, saying that during the 2026 bear market it did not fall below the breakeven level of 1 at any point. In his view, that indicates the broader investor base remained in aggregate profit rather than shifting into a fully drawdown-driven state.

This contrasts with earlier macro downtrends—periods when MVRV breached its breakeven threshold and helped signal widespread unrealized losses. According to the approach popularized by CryptoQuant, staying above breakeven can reduce the likelihood of forced selling across large investor cohorts.

Cointelegraph previously reported that MVRV has crossed above its 365-day moving average—a milestone the publication tied to the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. While that earlier coverage focused on the MVRV crossing itself, CryptoQuant’s latest angle connects the metric back to the broader idea of a market that is holding profitability rather than collapsing it.

ETFs add demand pressure as traders watch the resistance zone

Beyond on-chain supply and realized pricing, CryptoQuant’s outlook is being tested against real-time demand signals. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US have seen net inflows this month. In the most recent week being cited, the first two days recorded $1.7 billion in net inflows, with Monday alone bringing $999 million in inflows.

Those numbers were attributed to Farside Investors data, referenced in the reporting. While ETF flows do not remove on-chain resistance by themselves, consistent inflows can change the balance between new demand and profit-taking supply—particularly near psychologically important price levels like $90,000.

For traders, the practical takeaway is that the next resistance is being measured not only by price-based technical levels, but by where recently acquired coins become profitable enough to encourage selling. If ETF demand remains strong, it could help absorb that supply cluster; if it fades, profit-taking dynamics may dominate more quickly.

Going forward, the key question is whether Bitcoin can clear the $88,000–$90,000 band without triggering a larger wave of realized selling. CryptoQuant’s framework suggests a “natural pause” is plausible inside an uptrend, but investors will likely watch ETF flow persistence alongside on-chain realized profit bands to judge whether the $90,000 test turns into a brief slowdown or a more durable ceiling.