Solana’s SOL (SOL) (CRYPTO: SOL) has fallen 38% in the past month, dropping to a two-year low near $67 on Friday as bearish momentum intensifies for the seventh-largest crypto by market value. Since peaking near $295 in January 2025, SOL has steadily trended lower, trimming gains from a storied run and triggering a wave of technical analyses that warn of further downside. The decline comes amid a broader risk-off backdrop for crypto assets, prompting traders to scrutinize chart patterns, on-chain signals, and potential support zones as the market contends with macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity dynamics.
Key takeaways
- Solana’s head-and-shoulders pattern points to a price target around $50 or lower, with some estimates even suggesting mid-$40s depending on the measured move.
- The breakdown appears to be anchored by a neckline around $120 on a Jan. 30 breakout in the two-day timeframe, implying a further drop toward a $57 target — roughly a 32% decline from current levels.
- Solana’s on-chain metrics, notably the MVRV extreme deviation bands, currently sit near $75, a level historically associated with potential bottoming before a rebound.
- Analysts are split: some see a path to as low as $30 on longer horizons, while others anticipate a near-term floor around the $75 area before any significant recovery.
- The backdrop includes a prior cycle high around $295 in January 2025, underscoring the magnitude of the pullback and the risk-off sentiment affecting Solana and similar networks.
Tickers mentioned: $SOL
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. SOL has slumped about 38% in 30 days, hitting a two-year low near $67 and signaling sustained selling pressure.
Market context: The move sits within a broader risk-off environment for crypto markets, with technical breakdowns and pattern-driven targets shaping expectations as liquidity conditions remain uncertain and traders reassess the near-term demand for smart-contract platforms like Solana.
Why it matters
The Solana narrative has long hinged on both on-chain activity and the durability of its ecosystem amid macro fluctuations. As SOL slides from multi-hundred-dollar highs to the current vicinity, market participants are watching whether the token can sustain activity and funding flows that underpin network usage. The emergence of a prominent head-and-shoulders pattern across multiple timeframes increases the probability that downside momentum persists, particularly if the price breaks key support levels and fails to reclaim near-term momentum.
On-chain and market data add nuance to the story. The MVRV bands — a measure of how far the current price deviates from where holders last moved their coins — currently point to a potential bottom around the $75 area. Historically, SOL has dipped toward and even below the lower bands before turning, as observed in prior cycles around March 2022 and December 2020. However, the 2022 FTX episode demonstrated that sentiment and price can diverge sharply, with the price briefly tumbling well below typical bottom bands before a prolonged recovery path materialized. This history suggests that the next move could hinge on how liquidity and risk appetite evolve in the weeks ahead.
For SOL, the chart patterns suggest a didactic lesson in risk management: even as a long-term narrative remains intact for some developers, the near-term price action could remain fragile until a credible reversal signal appears. The price action, combined with on-chain signals, reinforces the potential for a multi-week or multi-month consolidation phase, during which price discovery may be tempered by macro volatility and evolving investor sentiment toward Layer-1 ecosystems.
What to watch next
- Watch for interactions with the $75 MVRV-band level, which historically has served as a reference point for potential reversals in SOL’s price.
- Monitor the H&S-based targets around $57 and the possibility of further downside toward the $50–$45 range if the pattern remains intact and selling pressure persists.
- Observe whether SOL can establish a footing above the $120 neckline on a sustained basis, or whether the price continues toward the next support levels identified by market analysts.
- Stay attentive to evolving risk sentiment in crypto markets and any regulatory or macro developments that could influence flows to and from Solana’s ecosystem.
Sources & verification
- Solana price action and the current price trajectory, including the 38% drop over 30 days and a low near $67 (Friday) as reported in technical summaries.
- Bitcoinsensus’ X post noting a potential downside target as low as $50 per SOL.
- Nextiscrypto’s two-week chart assessment calling for a possible move toward $45.
- Shitpoastin’s analysis of a long-term monthly head-and-shoulders pattern suggesting a target near $30.
- Glassnode data on Solana’s MVRV extreme deviation bands, currently around $75, used to frame potential bottoming activity.
