Bitcoin Falls to $64.5K WTD Low as Strategy Share-Sales Fear Return

Bitcoin pulled back from its weekly lows as traders returned to watch a busy U.S. macro calendar, with the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday interest-rate decision arriving shortly after the Wall Street open. Still, analysts say the rebound has struggled to build momentum, pointing to a lingering, very specific drag tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin position.

QCP Capital’s latest Market Color argues that, despite broader risk appetite improving, BTC has not been able to fully participate. The firm highlighted concerns that Strategy could be forced to sell additional Bitcoin to fund dividend obligations, even after recent balance-sheet actions that were intended to extend its liquidity runway.

Key takeaways

• BTC/USD rebounded after dipping to about $64,500 on Bitstamp ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
• QCP says BTC’s underperformance versus broader markets is linked to worries about further Strategy Bitcoin sales for dividend funding.
• QCP frames Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s first rate decision as unusually difficult given the tension between inflation concerns and rate-cut expectations.
• CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data shows traders pricing in no rate cuts at the Wednesday meeting, with markets increasingly focused on the possibility of hikes later in the year.

Strategy’s liquidity plans keep a lid on BTC strength

TradingView data cited in earlier coverage showed BTC/USD trending higher after the asset marked a new low for the week around $64,500 on Bitstamp. The bounce followed a period of caution as investors braced for volatility around the Federal Reserve’s announcement, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern time.

As Cointelegraph previously noted, major central-bank events often bring downside risk for Bitcoin in the short term. However, QCP’s analysis suggests the issue is not solely about the Fed headline. In its Market Color, the firm wrote that BTC remained trapped below the $66,000 area while broader markets traded up on optimism across multiple fronts.

“While broader markets continue to trade higher on optimism across multiple fronts, BTC remains stuck below the 66k level,” QCP wrote.

The clearest culprit in QCP’s assessment was Strategy. The firm said market worries center on whether Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to support dividend payments—particularly after the company had already bought back $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes.

“The underperformance has been driven in part by concerns that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to fund dividend payments,” QCP added.

QCP also pointed out that Strategy has taken steps to extend its liquidity runway following prior BTC sales. The analysis referenced that the company “extended its runway” after selling 32 BTC in May, and suggested that these contingency measures can reduce the immediate pressure. Yet the market is still focused on what comes next.

In QCP’s view, the overhang could keep Bitcoin from fully tracking macro optimism in the near term. Over time, as Strategy continues issuing shares and lengthening its runway, it expects sentiment to potentially improve—but for now, the firm argued BTC still has a specific hurdle to clear.

“In the short term, we think this overhang may continue to prevent Bitcoin from fully participating in the broader macro optimism,” QCP wrote.

Warsh’s first Fed meeting becomes a test of how the market should price rates

While BTC traders looked to the Fed for direction, QCP placed equal weight on the significance of who is delivering the message. The firm emphasized that Kevin Warsh takes the stage at his first FOMC meeting as chair.

“Warsh takes the stage at his first Fed meeting as Chair today,” QCP said in its analysis.

QCP noted that expectations had previously positioned Warsh as relatively dovish and more inclined toward rate cuts. But the economic backdrop, the firm argued, has shifted materially—raising the likelihood that Warsh will need to navigate competing pressures.

According to QCP, the meeting represents more than just the rate decision itself, especially with Jerome Powell stepping out of the role. The firm described Warsh’s task as establishing buy-in from Powell and the broader board while also proving he can operate as a credible and independent chair.

“Today’s meeting will therefore be about more than the rate decision,” QCP wrote. “It will be Warsh’s first opportunity to secure buy-in from Powell and the rest of the Board, while establishing himself as a credible and independent Fed Chair.”

FedWatch pricing: no cut now, uncertainty remains toward year-end

Market pricing for Wednesday’s decision offers a clearer picture of what traders are bracing for. Data referenced from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed no odds of the FOMC cutting rates at the meeting.

At the same time, commentary in the source material suggested that investors are increasingly looking ahead to possible policy tightening later in the year. Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, said markets were moving toward expectations of a rate hike by year-end, which he warned could weigh on crypto and other risk assets.

Dragosch also pointed to an open question that may matter as much as the current decision: whether Warsh will ultimately lean hawkish or dovish in the face of rising inflation. In a post on X, Dragosch said there was still “a lot of monetary policy uncertainty” around how Warsh would be categorized, despite the inflation backdrop.

What traders should watch next

With BTC tied to both macro expectations and Strategy-specific selling anxieties, the near-term signal may come less from price alone and more from confirmation on policy path pricing and any updated clarity around Strategy’s liquidity planning. Investors should watch the Fed’s language closely for clues on the trajectory of rates, while also monitoring whether Strategy’s funding approach continues to reduce—or reignites—concerns about additional Bitcoin sales.