Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Move 47K BTC to Exchanges at a Loss

Bitcoin is facing fresh pressure as short-term holders—investors typically holding BTC for up to 155 days—have continued sending coins to exchanges while trading below their acquisition cost. CryptoQuant data shows more than 47,000 BTC in exchange inflows tied to unrealized losses during the 24 hours to midnight UTC at the start of Wednesday, coinciding with Bitcoin printing an 11-week low.

The on-chain signals matter because “underwater” transfers often precede selling pressure, especially when rallies struggle to regain key levels. CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno pointed to $73,000 as a threshold traders will be watching closely, warning that a sustained break under that level—paired with a failed rebound—would reinforce the case for continued bear-market behavior.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant recorded 47,025 BTC sent by short-term holders to exchanges in 24 hours, with holders moving coins worth less than their purchase price.
• The 24-hour loss-linked inflow total was the third-highest since late July, indicating an elevated level of distribution from the most recently acquired supply.
• Bitcoin traded around $72,670—its lowest level since Aug. 20—when the transfers were observed.
• Julio Moreno flagged $73,000 as a decision point: a sustained break below it followed by a failed retest would strengthen the “bear-market continuation” scenario.

Underwater BTC exchange inflows rise as price tests recent lows

According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain analytics, short-term holders transferred 47,025 BTC to exchanges while those coins were in unrealized loss territory. The metric in question tracks Bitcoin held for up to 155 days, a cohort that analysts often associate with more responsive behavior during drawdowns—particularly because these holders are generally more likely to sell when prices fall, even if doing so locks in losses.

The latest reading also landed among the largest daily totals in CryptoQuant’s roughly four-month dataset. It came as Bitcoin slid to $72,670, marking the lowest print since Aug. 20. In other words, the transfer activity wasn’t just happening during a random fluctuation—it aligned with a move toward the lower end of the recent range.

CryptoQuant also provided a useful perspective on the balance of profitable versus loss-making transfers within the same framework. Earlier in the referenced period, profitable transfers were estimated near 1,700 BTC, implying a roughly 27-to-1 ratio of BTC arriving at a loss for every 1 BTC transferred at a profit. That skew highlights the direction of momentum from recent buyers: more coins were flowing to exchanges under negative mark-to-market conditions than under positive ones.

CryptoQuant previously noted that the largest 24-hour inflows of loss-bearing BTC since late July occurred on Oct. 8, shortly after Bitcoin dipped back toward $80,000. The rolling 24-hour peak, at that time, reached about 50,500 BTC—suggesting the market is moving back into the same distribution regime that appeared during earlier weakness.

Why the “short-term holder” lens is a warning signal

The short-term holder metric is often treated as a barometer for potential near-term selling pressure because this cohort represents relatively newer entry points into the market. When Bitcoin declines and these holders fall into unrealized losses, the economic incentive to “wait it out” can weaken—particularly if price action continues to underperform and rallies stall.

That dynamic is what makes exchange inflows especially relevant in this context. While on-chain transfers don’t automatically mean an immediate sell order is executed, moving BTC toward exchanges is a common precursor to liquidation events—either by traders seeking to realize losses or by participants making liquidity available for further trading.

In the current episode, the scale is notable: 47,025 BTC in a single day is not an isolated signal. CryptoQuant’s ranking—third-highest since July—suggests this is part of a broader pattern rather than one-off behavior.

$73,000 becomes the key line for whether the downtrend persists

Beyond the flow data, CryptoQuant’s framework ties the exchange inflow story to specific market levels. Cointelegraph previously reported that the short-term holders’ average cost basis sat around $75,700. When price trades below that figure, the cohort is largely underwater on average; when it recovers above it, the pressure can ease as mark-to-market losses shrink.

CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno argued that Bitcoin may still be within a downtrend that began in November 2025. He framed the market behavior in terms of whether rallies are stalling around the cohort’s cost basis and whether losses among short-term holders continue deepening.

In Moreno’s view, if rebounds fail to sustain and unrealized losses expand, the August rebound can begin to look less like a genuine turning point and more like a pause inside a continuing decline. His central call concerned the $73,000 area: a sustained break below that level followed by a failed retest from underneath would strengthen the case for “bear-market continuation.”

The logic is straightforward for traders: if price falls through a technical threshold and then cannot reclaim it on the way back up, it often signals that supply has improved enough to cap bounces. In contrast, reclaiming and holding that kind of level can shift risk perceptions quickly, especially if it changes the balance between loss-linked and profit-linked transfers.

Unrealized profit metrics suggest conditions are still shifting, not stabilizing

CryptoQuant’s analysis also referenced its net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator for short-term holders. The metric suggested that short-term holders reached their highest level of unrealized profitability since November 2025 when Bitcoin climbed to $87,200 in September. That is an important contrast to the current environment: even after earlier recovery, the cohort has slid back toward loss territory as Bitcoin moved lower.

The takeaway for readers is that multiple layers of data are currently pointing in the same direction—rising distribution risk coupled with a market that is testing lower support zones. The exchange inflow numbers provide a near-term behavioral signal, while cost-basis and NUPL measures help explain why that behavior is occurring now.

With Bitcoin already trading near recent lows, the next question is whether the $73,000 line Moreno highlighted can be defended. If it cannot, the loss-linked transfer pattern may intensify, increasing the probability of further downside pressure. If it does hold and rallies can reclaim it convincingly, the current “underwater outflow” narrative may weaken quickly.

For investors and active traders, the key watch points are whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $73,000 after any bounce attempt, and whether CryptoQuant’s short-term holder exchange inflows continue to rank among the highest daily totals in recent months—or start to normalize as the market regains confidence.