Bitcoin remained pinned near its monthly lows as traders looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. The pullback came with BTC trading below $76,000 and sliding to fresh September weakness the prior day, leaving the next catalyst firmly in focus: whether the Fed delivers another hike—or surprises markets by holding steady.
At the same time, on-chain data suggested buyers were adjusting closer to spot. Glassnode reported that resting bids in the spot order book have tightened around current price levels, with a key liquidity band forming in the high-$60,000 area—an important signal for where sell pressure could meet renewed demand if price revisits those supports.
Key takeaways
- BTC held below $76,000 into the Fed’s decision, near its lowest levels since Aug. 21 after printing a September low around $74,960.
- According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market priced in a 0.25% hike with odds over 90%, implying the fed funds rate would land in the 3.75%–4% range.
- On-chain order-book analysis by Glassnode pointed to improving bid liquidity around $68,000, closer to the current spot price than earlier in the year.
- If key bids fail, Glassnode highlighted deeper potential floors in the $62,000–$65,000 zone based on prior on-chain purchase activity.
Fed decision dominates as BTC stays under $76,000
BTC/USD continued to trade below $76,000 after hitting new September lows of about $74,960, according to TradingView price data referenced in the original reporting. The timing matters: the move unfolded as broader markets awaited the Fed’s policy announcement, with crypto sentiment often sensitive to shifts in the expected direction and pace of US rates.
The backdrop for this week’s risk assessment also included US politics and fiscal-legislative momentum. Earlier coverage noted that the failed CLARITY Act vote reduced the odds of near-term regulatory relief, keeping attention centered on the Fed’s ability to balance inflation concerns with political pressure. The source reporting emphasized that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for rate cuts, framing the Fed’s task as a balancing act.
Even with that political tension, the options market looked heavily tilted toward tightening. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of a 0.25% rate hike above 90% at the time of writing, pointing to a target range of 3.75%–4%. In other words, investors appeared to be preparing for the “base case” rather than the “surprise case.”
“In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X.
The meeting was part of a broader sequence of central-bank decisions. The European Central Bank had already enacted a 0.25% hike last week, and the Bank of Japan was expected to take similar action at its Friday meeting, lifting its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years as cited by the original report.
Macro crosscurrents also added pressure. The source noted that oil supply chain disruptions tied to an expanding Middle East conflict helped push WTI crude toward $106.70 per barrel—its highest since May 4—which can feed into inflation expectations. Earlier coverage highlighted that rising oil prices have had a pronounced knock-on effect on US CPI inflation, reinforcing why rate expectations stayed firm.
Where buyers may step in: Glassnode points to $68,000
While the price chart was weak, the order book offered a more tactical view of downside risk. Glassnode, in its “The Week Onchain” newsletter, analyzed short-term BTC price behavior and described how resting bids—the buy orders sitting in the market—have pulled closer as spot moved down.
Glassnode reported that nearly two-thirds of bids resting within 20% of current price were now concentrated between 1% and 10% below it, compared with about half at the start of the year. That shift suggests participants were increasingly willing to place liquidity nearer to where trades are actually happening, which can matter during sharp selloffs because it reduces the distance the market has to travel before matching demand appears.
In the report, Glassnode identified the next prominent liquidity marker around $68,000. It also linked the current price position to broader cost-basis concepts used in on-chain analytics: BTC was sitting just below the True Market Mean, described as the aggregate cost basis of active BTC supply.
The analytics also referenced a second potential support area tied to short-term holders—defined as wallets holding unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) for less than six months—placing that aggregate cost basis at around $71,300. Together, these metrics frame a zone of interest for traders: where selling may lose momentum if the market reaches areas that buyers have previously accumulated.
If $68,000 breaks, deeper on-chain floors come into view
The key question for investors is what happens if the near-term liquidity band fails. Glassnode cautioned that if the current range breaks and the bids around $68,000 are consumed, the next floor could be found on-chain in the $62,000–$65,000 region.
That range was described as the area where “the heaviest block of supply below the market” was last bought, with the source reporting that it corresponds to roughly 9% of BTC supply that last moved at those prices. In practical terms, this matters because prior buy clustering often attracts attention during drawdowns: it can represent either capitulation from recent holders—or a more durable re-pricing point where demand has historically reappeared.
Glassnode’s framing makes the current setup unusually “measurable.” Rather than relying only on general support levels, the analysis ties potential floors to where bids are resting and to where sizable supply previously changed hands.
What to watch after the Fed announcement
With markets pricing a hike aggressively via CME’s FedWatch Tool, the immediate focus after the decision will be whether BTC responds to the expected outcome—or to any nuance in the Fed’s messaging about the path of rates. If the post-Fed move drags BTC through the order-book liquidity around $68,000, attention will likely shift quickly to the $62,000–$65,000 on-chain supply zone highlighted by Glassnode.
