Bitcoin Weekly: Why the Rate Path Still Splits Investor Bets

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of July under the pressure of shifting US macro expectations, with traders focused on two near-term catalysts: the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and new inflation data that could influence rate expectations. At the same time, market participants are watching whether the usual ties between crypto and traditional risk assets are returning or fading—an issue that has become more relevant as equities show signs of wobbling.

With US bond yields elevated and oil reacting to geopolitical developments, the next few days could determine whether Bitcoin’s relatively tight trading behavior turns into a decisive breakout—or a renewed pullback. On-chain signals add another layer: CryptoQuant reports that BTC whale inflows to Binance have cooled materially since mid-June.

Key takeaways

• FedWatch data from CME Group assigns a roughly one-in-three chance of a July hike, while pointing to higher odds for September.
• Markets will get a fresh read on inflation Thursday via the June PCE report, which IMEN expects to moderate to 3.7% year over year.
• Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity indices appears weak on higher timeframes, but geopolitical and macro shocks could re-link the markets.
• CryptoQuant data shows BTC inflows from whales to Binance have fallen as much as 44% since June 12, with retail inflows declining less sharply.
• Technically, Bitcoin is testing a widely watched 50-month trend level, where sell-side activity could determine whether the range holds.

Fed and inflation headline risk returns to the front of crypto

The immediate driver for risk assets remains the US interest-rate outlook. Attention is centered on the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision set for Wednesday, July 29, chaired by Kevin Warsh. Expectations around further tightening have remained volatile, with geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns keeping the possibility of additional rate hikes on the table.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a hike at the upcoming meeting is about 31%, while odds for a September increase are higher—around 50%.

Those expectations were not static. Earlier Monday, oil prices fell about 8% after developments involving the US and Iran paused strikes, according to the article’s reporting. That shift was reflected in Fed pricing as rate-hike odds moved from 37.4% to 33.7%.

Beyond the headline odds, traders are also tracking bond-market signals. Mosaic Asset Company noted in its “The Market Mosaic” newsletter that the 30-year Treasury yield is testing a breakout level. The firm referenced how, in May, the 30-year yield saw a false move above the 5% resistance area that had held since late 2023. A stronger long-end move can still matter for broader financial conditions—even if the long end plays a smaller direct role in funding the government than it once did.

PCE may offer clues on whether inflation is cooling fast enough

Inflation data is the other pillar for the week. On Thursday, markets will focus on the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with the prior month’s reading described as a three-year high at 4.1% year over year. The report’s importance for crypto lies in how quickly traders can reprice the probability of Fed actions once the inflation trajectory becomes clearer.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to publish the June PCE numbers (as referenced in the article). IMEN, in an X post cited by the report, predicted that June PCE inflation would come in moderately below May, forecasting 3.7% year over year.

That kind of move could help explain the market’s recent sensitivity. The article notes that June’s PCE release coincided with Bitcoin dipping to macro lows around $58,000, underscoring how inflation surprises can quickly ripple through risk sentiment.

Bitcoin’s equity link looks muted—but not immune

One of the more notable themes from the reporting is that Bitcoin’s correlation with major equity benchmarks has appeared unusually weak on longer timeframes. TradingView data referenced in the article suggests the daily correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500—using a 20-week loopback window—is “practically absent,” at levels not seen since March. Against the Nasdaq Composite, the correlation coefficient is reported around 0.11, last observed in mid-February.

That matters because it implies Bitcoin may be trading more on its own set of drivers than pure equity beta. However, the report cautions that bearish macro or geopolitical developments can still force correlations back into view, especially when markets are repricing discount rates.

Equities themselves are not providing a clean tailwind. US corporate earnings have reportedly continued to exceed expectations, but the article points to historically elevated valuations as a reason rallies may struggle to absorb further shocks. It also highlights that several major tech names saw notable drawdowns in the prior week, with “Magnificent 7” losses totaling about 5.3% through Friday, after earlier sell-offs tied to $GOOGL and $TSLA.

Even so, the Kobeissi Letter cited in the article argued that margins and earnings beats remain strong across the S&P 500 so far, and that AI is supporting earnings growth. Investors should recognize the tension here: solid earnings can reduce the immediate pressure, but higher rates can still cap multiples and undermine market breadth.

From exchange flows to BTC price levels: what to watch next

Alongside macro risk, crypto-specific positioning is also under scrutiny. CryptoQuant’s analysis—quoted in the article—focuses on BTC transfer flows to Binance. The firm reports that whale inflows to Binance have dropped by as much as 44% since June 12, while retail inflows have fallen 22%.

In the same blog post referenced by the article, contributor Amr Taha wrote that retail inflows are roughly twice whale inflows, leaving a gap of $3.9 billion. The interpretation offered is that the composition of transfers has shifted: retail participants are currently more active than whales in sending BTC to exchanges.

That distinction matters because exchange inflows can influence sell-side readiness, though it does not automatically translate into immediate selling. Still, Taha frames the FOMC meeting as a “major macro catalyst” that could test whether this divergence between retail and whale behavior persists or starts to converge.

The report also points to signs of active redistribution at Binance, noting single-day withdrawals of over 9,000 BTC last week, as previously covered by Cointelegraph.

On the market chart, Bitcoin’s near-term behavior remains range-bound. After the Sunday weekly close, the article says BTC reached a local high of $65,680 on Bitstamp, but it remains engaged in a familiar contest with the 50-month exponential moving average trend line. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is cited warning that sell-side pressure appears to be building at this resistance area.

Rekt Capital’s view, as quoted, is that if seller volume dominates while Bitcoin is held at resistance, rejection becomes more likely. The analysis also references the 200-week simple moving average, describing price as “sandwiched” between the 200-week SMA and the 50-month EMA—setting up a scenario where continued compression could eventually force a volatility expansion.

For traders and long-term observers alike, the next key questions revolve around whether macro data and the Fed decision reinforce current risk pricing or trigger a sharper repricing. If PCE and post-FOMC guidance confirm a higher-for-longer path, Bitcoin’s exchange-flow shifts and its resistance-area compression may matter more than usual; if inflation cools meaningfully, the market could regain room to break out of its current “boring” range.