Coinbase Eyes World Cup Lift as Prediction Markets Surge, Bernstein

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for prediction markets, according to new analysis from Bernstein. The research argues that the expanded tournament schedule could unlock a surge in both sports betting and consumer prediction markets, turning what is traditionally a slow window for online wagering into a substantial revenue engine.

Bernstein’s forecasts center on a roughly month-long event spanning 104 matches, during which the industry could see more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional consumer prediction market volume. FIFA’s own outlook for the worldwide audience—about 6 billion viewers, up from an estimated 5 billion in 2022—only underscores the potential scale of engagement during the tournament. The analysts frame the World Cup as a test case for how large-scale, real-world events can accelerate participation in prediction markets beyond the traditional sports betting crowd.

Key takeaways

• The World Cup could convert a typically slow betting period into a major driver of both traditional betting and prediction-market activity, with potential incremental handles in the billions of dollars.
• Coinbase is highlighted as a standout player in the prediction-market space, having surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue by March after launching nationwide in partnership with Kalshi.
• Robinhood is anticipated to benefit as it rolls out Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction-market exchange and clearinghouse, positioning the firm for sizable incremental revenue in 2026.
• Broader market data point to robust growth in prediction markets, driven by retail participation and sports categories, supported by regulatory developments signaling cautious openness to built-out contract markets.
• Industry volumes are expanding rapidly, with retail traders comprising a large share of activity and sports accounting for a growing share of prediction-market volumes.

Prediction markets scale with a global sports event

Bernstein’s analysis emphasizes the World Cup as a catalyst for a broader shift in the prediction-market space. While sports and politics have traditionally driven spikes in activity, the report suggests that the 2026 tournament could unlock a sustained step-up in engagement across real-world outcomes. The forecasted incremental sports-betting handle of more than $3 billion, paired with an extra $5–$10 billion in consumer prediction-market volume, signals a potential re-rating of the market’s growth trajectory for the rest of the year and into 2027.

The market implication is twofold. First, operators with established pipelines into broad U.S. and global audiences stand to capture a larger share of recreational and casual bettors who are drawn to the predict-and-win format of markets tied to real events. Second, the event provides a proving ground for non-traditional prediction offerings—ranging from entertainment and culture to politics and sports—where a large, engaged audience can be monetized through event-driven contracts.

FIFA’s global viewership projection, which Bernstein cites as a driver of engagement, also highlights a key adoption tailwind: the more people tune in, the more people seek ways to participate beyond traditional watching or betting. That dynamic could help prediction-market products gain traction beyond crypto-native users and bring in more mainstream participants who are comfortable with contract-based outcomes.

Platform momentum and revenue signals

The analysis credits Coinbase with establishing a notable presence in the prediction-market landscape. Bernstein notes that Coinbase’s prediction-market offering exceeded $100 million in annualized revenue as of March—remarkable growth for a product launched just months earlier. The rollout, pursued through a nationwide arrangement with Kalshi, enables users in all 50 states to trade outcome-based contracts across sports, politics, culture, and other real-world events. This nationwide reach marks a significant expansion from earlier, more constrained access models and positions Coinbase as a benchmark for monetization in this space.

Coinbase’s move is complemented by Roger-friendly expansion from Robinhood. Bernstein flags that the brokerage is leveraging the World Cup period to introduce Rothera, its US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets. The forecast: the World Cup could be a major revenue driver for 2026, with Bernstein projecting roughly $586 million in prediction-market revenue for the year. If realized, this would underscore a broader trend of mainstream fintech platforms embracing prediction markets as a core product category rather than a niche experiment.

These platform dynamics echo a broader industry trend: established exchanges are increasingly partnering with payment rails and regulatory-compliant structures to unlock mass participation. The momentum also raises questions about how quickly other incumbents—both crypto-native and traditional fintechs—will pursue similar paths, and what the competitive landscape might look like as more players enter the space.

Market growth, retail dominance, and regulatory signals

Beyond individual platform moves, market research from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket provides a contemporaneous snapshot of growth, noting that monthly prediction-market trading volume reached about $26 billion in April, with retail traders comprising more than 80% of users. The report also highlighted a structural shift in user behavior: rather than rallying around single events like elections, prediction markets are increasingly retaining users across recurring categories, with sports emerging as the largest segment. In March, sports betting accounted for more than 39% of prediction-market volumes, according to Bitget Wallet and Polygon data.

Regulatory signals are also shaping the trajectory. The CFTC issued draft rules around prediction markets, signaling that sports-event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, even though federal law classifies them as “gaming.” The evolving policy framework is crucial for how quickly larger-scale, payment-enabled prediction markets can scale while maintaining compliance and consumer protections. For investors and builders, the regulatory environment remains a critical variable: clarity and workable licensing pathways could reinforce growth, while tightening rules could constrain new product formats or market access.

In parallel, industry chatter around valuations and fundraising remains active. Earlier coverage noted Kalshi and Polymarket eyeing substantial valuations as venture funds seek exposure to prediction-market platforms, illustrating how the space has evolved from niche experimentation to potential mainstream adoption through scalable, regulated products.

What readers should watch next

The World Cup’s impact on prediction markets will hinge on several moving parts. Actual revenue realization from Coinbase’s Kalshi partnership and Robinhood’s Rothera offering will be telling, as will user retention beyond the tournament window. Regulatory developments will continue to shape product designs, risk controls, and cross-border access for prediction-market platforms. Finally, sustained volume gains—particularly in sports- or entertainment-focused markets—will determine whether the World Cup represents a one-off surge or the start of a longer growth cycle for consumer prediction markets.

As the tournament unfolds, observers should monitor how incremental volumes compare with Bernstein’s projections and whether the retail-led momentum observed in early 2024 persists into late 2026. If the industry secures a stable regulatory footing and broadens access without compromising protections, the World Cup could become a defining milestone for prediction markets, catalyzing deeper participation from traders, investors, and builders alike.