CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Win Streak as Bull Signs Rise

Bitcoin’s rebound narrative is getting a data point that historically shows up before stronger upside attempts: short-term holders (STHs) appear to be keeping at least part of their paper gains rather than flipping back into losses.

According to onchain analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin wallets holding coins for less than six months have maintained partial profitability for nearly a month, marking the longest consecutive in-profit stretch of 2026. At the same time, the broader Bitcoin investor base has remained in net profit since Aug. 19, suggesting the market’s cost-basis landscape is improving rather than merely bouncing off support.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant says STHs have spent roughly 30 straight days in at least partial profit, the longest such run in 2026.
• STH profitability is measured as $168.2 billion in profit versus $102.6 billion in losses, with gains currently outweighing drawdown.
• CryptoQuant frames sustained STH profitability as a prerequisite for a more durable reversal in Bitcoin’s trend.
• STH profitability is being supported particularly by wallets in the one-to-three-month age band, with higher realized cost bases toward the three-to-six-month cohort.

Why short-term holder profitability matters

CryptoQuant’s analysis focuses on the behavior of STHs—wallets that still hold unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months. In practice, these holders are often more responsive to recent price moves: they tend to buy and sell in shorter cycles, making their profit-and-loss state sensitive to market volatility.

The key observation from the data is persistence. CryptoQuant reports that since Aug. 16, the STH cohort has been split between coins in profit ($168.2 billion) and coins below acquisition price ($102.6 billion), but the overall period qualifies as an extended in-profit stretch. Even CryptoQuant emphasizes that the absolute profit-versus-loss ratio is less important than the fact that STHs have maintained at least some profitability continuously for about 30 days.

In an accompanying CryptoQuant blog post, the firm argues this is the first time STHs have held profit territory for a sustained period since the market top. CryptoQuant also points to prior cycles—most notably an earlier January episode that was shorter than a week, and a May period where losses dominated—to frame how unusual the current streak appears.

CryptoQuant’s broader claim is that longer stretches of STH profitability have historically preceded the kind of trend reversal traders look for after bear-market phases. The firm ties the setup to market recoveries across Bitcoin’s prior cycles and cites observations from the end of the 2022 bear market.

Profit persistence across the broader investor base

The short-term picture is reinforced by a wider investor-level profitability condition. Cointelegraph’s earlier market coverage noted that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR)—which tracks net profit or loss for investors spending coins—crossed above breakeven at SOPR level 1 on Aug. 19 and has stayed narrowly above it since.

While SOPR and STH profitability are not identical metrics, they overlap conceptually: both are concerned with whether real-world trading behavior is occurring at profits rather than losses. When both measures tilt positive and remain there, it usually indicates fewer forced exits and less capitulation-like selling embedded in the market’s cost basis.

Cointelegraph also referenced an argument from Checkonchain that STH profitability “starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.” That aligns with CryptoQuant’s framing of the current streak as a step toward a more sustained upside attempt, not just a short-lived bounce.

Which STH cohorts are driving the shift

CryptoQuant’s data suggests the improving profitability isn’t uniform across all short-duration holders. The firm says profitability is being driven primarily by entities holding between one and three months. For that subgroup, CryptoQuant reports a realized cost basis of $63,372—an important detail because it represents the average price at which their holdings were accumulated.

Meanwhile, the more “mature” end of the STH base—wallets holding for three to six months—shows a higher realized cost basis. CryptoQuant places this realized price at $73,190, meaning that while gains exist across the STH population, the market still has to clear more expensive acquisition levels for the older slice of short-term demand.

For traders and investors, this matters because the distribution of realized cost bases often influences where selling pressure could reappear. If price pushes through the higher realized band with momentum, it tends to reduce the probability that the newer profit holders will quickly become loss holders again.

In other words, the market’s health here isn’t only about being above a single breakeven line; it’s about whether the improving profitability can extend across aging cohorts inside the short-term bucket—especially those with higher cost bases.

What to watch next

CryptoQuant’s historical signal is clear on what it considers a prerequisite for stronger upside: STHs need to remain in profit long enough that they are more likely to “ride the upside” rather than re-enter sell-the-rally behavior. The next checkpoint for readers is whether this profitability persistence continues beyond the current streak, particularly as price interacts with higher realized cost bases in the three-to-six-month segment.