CryptoQuant: Whales Accumulate as Late-Stage Bear Market Looms

Large “smart money” holders are adding to their Bitcoin and Ether positions as crypto valuations drift toward levels commonly associated with late-stage bear markets, according to CryptoQuant’s latest Smart Money report, reviewed by Cointelegraph.

The blockchain analytics firm argues that the key signal is not just that whales are holding more, but that their balances have continued to rise during price weakness—an accumulation pattern that, historically, can line up with market bottoms even though it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant says Bitcoin whale balances (excluding exchanges and mining pools) rose to about 3.06 million BTC, up from roughly 2.87 million BTC in December 2025.
• The firm links the acceleration in Bitcoin accumulation to a period after BTC fell below $60,000 in June.
• For Ethereum, wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH collectively reached a record 19.6 million ETH, while very large holders added around 1.8 million ETH since mid-2025.
• In XRP markets, CryptoQuant notes “big whale” spot order sizes remained elevated, while a neutral 90-day taker cumulative volume delta points more toward passive absorption than aggressive buying.
• CryptoQuant also cites realized price—an estimate of the market’s average on-chain cost basis—as support for a potential move toward a bottom, though it warns further downside remains possible.

Whales build positions during weakness

CryptoQuant’s Smart Money report focuses on large-holder behavior as a potential guide to market direction. The underlying premise is that when major holders increase balances while prices are under pressure, they can effectively reduce liquid supply and concentrate ownership among fewer entities.

For Bitcoin, CryptoQuant reports that whale holdings excluding exchanges and mining pools climbed to approximately 3.06 million BTC, compared with about 2.87 million BTC in December 2025. The report highlights that accumulation accelerated after Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 in June, suggesting that at least some large investors continued to add despite worsening price conditions.

On Ethereum, CryptoQuant’s distribution-based view shows parallel strength. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH collectively amassed a record 19.6 million ETH. Meanwhile, wallets with more than 100,000 ETH added roughly 1.8 million ETH since mid-2025, according to the report.

What the “smart money tell” implies—especially for bottoms

Beyond raw balances, CryptoQuant points to valuation metrics tied to cost. In particular, it references realized price—often used in on-chain analysis as an estimate of the average price at which coins last moved on-chain. The firm frames the spread between current prices and realized price as a sign the market may be approaching a bottom.

At the time of writing, CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin trading at $63,935, above its realized price of $52,900. Ether was quoted around $1,858, below its realized price of roughly $2,450. XRP traded near $1.10 versus a realized price around $0.75.

CryptoQuant’s assessment is that rising whale balances into price weakness are “the clearest smart-money tell,” and that similar accumulation patterns have historically preceded market bottoms. However, the firm also cautions that the market remains vulnerable to further downside, underscoring that whale accumulation can coincide with bottoms without guaranteeing the timing of a trend reversal.

Cross-market nuance: XRP shows absorption more than conviction

CryptoQuant’s report extends beyond Bitcoin and Ether to look at XRP market microstructure. It says average spot order sizes stayed in its “big whale” category while XRP traded between $1 and $1.20—indicating that large participants remained active in placing orders.

Yet CryptoQuant adds an important nuance: a neutral 90-day taker cumulative volume delta suggests passive absorption rather than aggressive buying. In practical terms, the indicator implies that while whales may be leaving significant liquidity footprints, the flow of taker-side demand has not been strongly one-directional, which can matter for how quickly price can respond to renewed buying pressure.

Context from other analysts on whether a bottom is forming

CryptoQuant’s on-chain framing is arriving alongside other research suggesting potential bottoming behavior. On Monday, 10x Research said Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom if it posts a monthly close above $63,000, according to coverage on Cointelegraph.

Separately, K33 highlighted in a July 7 report that Bitcoin has historically reached cycle lows within weeks after more than half of circulating supply was held at a loss. This type of supply-at-loss perspective differs from realized price, but both approaches share a common theme: bottoms often appear when broader holder pain and valuation disadvantage have pushed into extremes.

Taken together, these views suggest a market that may be searching for stabilization rather than already having fully turned. CryptoQuant’s emphasis on late-stage bear valuations and its repeated warning about further downside reflect that tension: the evidence for “smart money” accumulation may be strengthening, but the path from accumulation to sustained recovery is not automatic.

Investors and traders watching this setup should focus on whether whale balance growth continues alongside improving price/realized-price relationships, and whether other bottoming conditions—such as the kind of monthly-close thresholds or supply-at-loss measures cited by separate research—start to align. Until then, CryptoQuant’s own message remains the most important watchpoint: accumulation during weakness can be a bottom signal, but it does not rule out additional volatility or downside.