Ethics of on-chain accumulation and macro signals are converging as a once-prominent Ethereum wallet re-emerges as a notable buyer. According to Arkham Intelligence, the long-standing address thomasg.eth has been quietly rebuilding its ETH footprint, adding roughly $19.5 million of Ether across spot holdings, wrapped ETH, and Aave-deposited ETH over the past week, with a fresh $3 million purchase recorded on March 20. This activity marks a renewed willingness to accumulate at price levels well off the last all-time highs.
According to Arkham, the wallet once held around $537 million in crypto assets at the 2021 market peak. With ETH hovering around a 56% discount to its all-time high of $4,946 reached on Aug. 24, 2025, the on-chain data suggest a continued interest in stockpiling ETH as market pricing remains depressed, at least for the near term, per CoinGecko data.
Key takeaways
- Arkham Intelligence traces a measurable rebuild of exposure by thomasg.eth, with about $19.5 million of ETH purchased across spot, WETH, and Aave deposits in the past week, capped by a $3 million buy on March 20.
- ETH trades roughly 56% below its all-time peak, underscoring the ongoing price-discount backdrop that may entice long-term accretive buying by on-chain wallets.
- US spot ETH exchange-traded funds have posted three consecutive days of net outflows, totaling tens of millions of dollars in the period cited by Farside Investors: $55.7 million (Mar 18), $136.4 million (Mar 19), and $42 million (Mar 20).
- Bitmine Immersion Technologies, led by Fundstrat founder Tom Lee, continues to expand its ETH stake, now holding about 4.6 million ETH. Lee argues the ETH bottom is in, referencing Tom DeMark’s analysis.
- DeMark’s indicators highlight a strong 93% correlation between ETH price action and S&P 500 recoveries after major macro bottoms, a reading that Place ETH’s price bottom around March 7 or in the process of bottoming, though the takeaway remains probabilistic rather than definitive.
On-chain activity and the ETH exposure narrative
The Arc of thomasg.eth’s activity provides a rare glimpse into how individual, long-standing wallets may re-enter demand cycles after extended drawdowns. Arkham notes the recent sequence of purchases across different ETH vehicles—spot holdings, wrapped ETH, and collateralized exposure via Aave—suggesting a deliberate effort to diversify risk while building a sizable stake. The $3 million addition on March 20 functionally reinforces the broader thesis that macro price baselines are attracting informed on-chain buyers who can deploy capital with a multi-venue approach.
The historical context matters. Arkham points to the wallet’s 2021 peak as a reminder of the scale some players had amassed when risk appetites were strongest, even as the current price environment remains far from those lofty levels. The implication for traders and builders is nuanced: on-chain wallets with long lifecycles may be positioned to participate in a potential rebound without triggering the kind of speculative frenzies that characterize other cycles.
ETF flows, price backdrop, and what they signal
The fresh bout of purchases in the on-chain space arrives as spot ETH ETFs in the U.S. grapple with persistent outflows. Farside Investors tallies a pattern of three straight days of net outflows, with March 18 at $55.7 million, March 19 at $136.4 million, and March 20 at $42 million. The divergence between on-chain accumulation and ETF fund flows underscores a broader theme: institutional price discovery can be decoupled from static fund flows in the near term, especially when retail and high-net-worth players are calibrating risk in a volatile macro window.
CoinGecko data place ETH trading around 56% below its all-time high, a level that has persisted despite a visible shift in market sentiment and macro conditions. The price backdrop matters for both short-term traders and longer-term holders: it preserves the argument that buy-the-drip strategies and patient capital can accumulate a meaningful position en route to a possible recovery, even as ETF channels show liquidity withdrawal in the near term.
In this context, ETH’s realized price — the average price at which units were last moved on-chain — is reported around $2,241. That metric, coupled with the current price discount to historical highs, has historically drawn attention from investors who compare the current cycle with prior legs of the bear market where similar price gaps preceded eventual relief rallies.
The ETF outflows add a layer of complexity to the price narrative: funds retreating from spot exposure can coincide with on-chain accumulation by large holders, potentially signaling a shift in the supply-demand balance that may manifest as a price inflection in the months ahead. Investors will want to watch whether ETF inflows return or further outflows deepen, and how on-chain holders respond as ETH price meanders around multi-year lows or mid-cycle basements.
Bitmine’s conviction, DeMark signals, and the long arc of ETH
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, a vehicle chaired by Tom Lee of Fundstrat fame, has become a visible voice in the ETH bottom narrative. The firm currently holds about 4.6 million ETH and has publicly defended a thesis that the ETH bottom is in, or close to being confirmed. Lee’s stance draws on the work of market technician Tom DeMark, whose analysis has been cited by BITMINE and others to describe recent ETH price action as exhibiting a high correlation with significant macro recoveries in the S&P 500 after past downturns.
DeMark’s framework argues that ETH’s price action shows a meaningful alignment with the patterns observed after the 1987 crash and the 2011 bottom, suggesting the possibility that ETH found a bottom around early March or is in the process of doing so. While such correlations do not guarantee future outcomes, they contribute to a Bayesian-style assessment in which downside risk is tempered by historical analogs and the presence of on-chain demand from entities like thomasg.eth and Bitmine’s sizeable ETH trove.
Beyond the short-term price narrative, Lee highlights ETH’s long-run performance, stressing a historic outsized return: roughly 49,000% over the past decade, versus Bitcoin’s roughly 11,000% and even rival tech names such as Nvidia posting blistering returns. From Bitmine’s perspective, this strengthens the argument for ETH as a store of value and a foundational layer value proposition even amid drawdowns. That framing — long-term accumulation as a durable narrative — is precisely what makes the current period of buybacks and cautious capitalization noteworthy for investors who are evaluating risk across crypto assets and related equities.
Earlier reporting noted Bitmine’s strategic purchases, including a transaction of 5,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation, elevating its holdings to about 4.6 million ETH. The firm has publicly framed these moves as part of a broader bet on a multi-year cycle that could see ETH re-rate higher if macro conditions improve and demand from both institutions and avid on-chain participants reasserts itself.
In this backdrop, the market is testing a core question: if ETH is at or near a bottom, who are the buyers that could sustain a recovery, and what signals will confirm that a sustainable rebound is underway? The combination of on-chain accumulation, selective ETF outflows, and a growing cadre of high-conviction buyers suggests that the next phase of the cycle could hinge on how macro liquidity conditions evolve and how quickly on-chain demand translates into price resilience.
As traders and developers watch, the next few weeks could prove pivotal for ETH’s price discovery process. If ETF outflows abate and on-chain wallets continue to accumulate, there may be a path toward stabilization or even a cautious rebound. Conversely, if macro risks intensify or liquidity conditions deteriorate further, the short-term downside could persist even as long-term narratives around ETH’s role in decentralized finance and layer-1 ecosystems endure.
What readers should watch next is how ETF flows evolve in tandem with on-chain activity and whether additional large holders disclose their exposure or shift their position sizes. The balance of supply and demand, the trajectory of ETH’s realized price, and the cadence of new purchases from major wallets will all shape the trajectory of ETH in the months ahead.
