Ethereum Drops to 4-Month Low as Futures Data Signals $3,200 Target

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Cryptocurrency markets remain volatile amid fluctuating investor sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite recent declines, some institutional traders are showing increased confidence in Ethereum (ETH), with derivatives markets hinting at a potential recovery. Meanwhile, broader economic indicators suggest rising stress in the U.S. economy, impacting risk appetite across crypto assets and traditional markets alike.

Ether (ETH) experienced a sharp 15% decline from Wednesday through Friday, sinking to $2,625 — its lowest point since July. The move wiped out approximately $460 million in leveraged ETH bullish positions over just two days, erasing nearly half of the gains since the August 24 all-time high. Despite the sell-off, some traders are eyeing a potential relief rally toward $3,200, supported by a subtle shift in derivatives sentiment.

The annualized funding rate for ETH perpetual futures approached 6% on Friday, up from 4% the week prior. This indicator typically fluctuates between 6% and 12%, reflecting the cost of capital under balanced market conditions. While still a sign of cautiousness rather than outright bullishness, the resilience of futures markets suggests that market participants are somewhat confident that the current downturn might be nearing its end.

US Economic Data Spark Warnings of Increasing Financial Strain

Recent surveys reveal mounting economic concerns among consumers. A University of Michigan poll indicates that 69% of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, more than doubling last year’s figures. Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, highlighted that “cost-of-living and income worries dominate consumer outlooks across the country.”

In the housing sector, major retailer Home Depot’s CEO Ted Decker reported softer engagement in larger discretionary projects, pointing to ongoing weakness in the residential real estate market. Housing turnover as a proportion of total supply has reached a 40-year low, prompting price adjustments, according to Yahoo Finance.

Part of the declining confidence in ETH is reflected in persistent outflows from spot ETH ETFs, which have seen about $1.33 billion exit over nine consecutive sessions. Institutional investors have been reducing exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainties and a strengthening US dollar, which has hit its highest level in six months as investors seek safety amid fears in the AI sector and broader geopolitical risks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trend higher, underscoring the risk-off sentiment. Investors are holding cash reserves amid unclear employment prospects and the aftermath of the US government shutdown, delaying traditional risk-on rebounds.

On the crypto trading front, top traders on OKX are gradually increasing their long positions, even as ETH prices fell from $3,200 to $2,700. This suggests that confidence in Ethereum’s medium-term upside is slowly returning, boosted by quarter earnings reports and Federal Reserve commentary signaling potential rate cuts as the labor market softens.

The ongoing macroeconomic backdrop, combined with reduced risk appetite, has pressured ETH and related crypto assets. Nonetheless, derivatives data indicates that traders increasingly believe Bitcoin and ETH may have found interim support at around $2,650, setting the stage for possible recovery in the weeks ahead, provided inflows and monetary policy align favorably.

This complex mix of macroeconomic signals and traders’ evolving positions underscores the cautious optimism permeating the cryptocurrency markets as they navigate ongoing economic uncertainties.