Ethereum’s Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is facing a pivotal moment as it tests the $1,500 psychological level, with technical patterns suggesting a potential continuation to the downside. A bear pennant breakdown has emerged, supported by rising volume and a shift in risk sentiment that has weighed on the broader crypto market. Monday’s session saw ETH slide sharply, dipping to around $1,850 amid nerves around tariffs and macro headwinds. If the breakdown persists, traders expect the price to retrace toward $1,475 by late February or early March, aligning with the measured move implied by the pattern. Bulls will need to reclaim key support to alter the trajectory.

Key takeaways

Ethereum is in the breakdown phase of a bear pennant, signaling potential further weakness.
The chart-based downside target sits near $1,475, likely by late February or early March if current dynamics hold.
The move was accompanied by rising volumes, indicating conviction behind the breakout from the pennant’s lower boundary.
Vitalik Buterin’s ongoing ETH sales plans add a supply-side headwind, with roughly 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave noted on-chain.
February’s ETH price decline of about 18.5% aligns with the distribution activity cited in on-chain trackers.
Historically, founder-led transfers have coincided with pronounced price moves, underscoring the potential impact of large.

Tickers mentioned: $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The breakdown美元 appears to be extending ETH’s downside trajectory and testing key support at $1,500.

Market context: The current wave sits within a broader crypto risk-off environment, where de-risking and macro headwinds shape near-term price action and liquidity across altcoins.

Market context: The move sits within a broader de-risking mood across crypto markets, where macro volatility and on-chain activity around founder distributions shape near-term price dynamics.

Why it matters

The technical setup around ETH points to a larger narrative about how chart patterns interact with market psychology and on-chain flows. A breach of the pennant’s lower boundary, when accompanied by higher volume, often signals that selling pressure is prevailing and could lead to a measured move down to the pennant’s projected target. If ETH cannot defend the $1,500 zone, traders may push the road map toward $1,475, a level that marks a critical psychological barrier as well as a liquidity threshold for a number of market participants.

Beyond chart mechanics, the ongoing cadence of founder-led distributions adds another layer of complexity. Vitalik Buterin’s reported plan to liquidate significant ETH holdings to fund ecosystem work has become a recurring talking point for traders, especially when paired with on-chain data showing sizable sales. While these transfers do not guarantee price outcomes, they contribute to a sense of overhang that can amplify negative sentiment during drawdowns. Historical episodes—such as the May 2021 transfers of tens of thousands of ETH before previous downturns, and the November 2021 move to Kraken that preceded a period of price cooling—highlight how large, scheduled liquidations can sway market mood even when overall fundamentals remain intact.

The intersecting pressures—technical breakdowns, on-chain supply dynamics, and macro risk-off tendencies—mean the market will likely hinge on the next few price ticks. For ETH holders, the key question is whether buyers re-emerge to defend the $1,500 floor and force a reversal, or if sellers maintain zone control and push toward the lower pennant target. The presence of a nearby 20-day exponential moving average around $2,085 also gives bulls a potential benchmark to reclaim should a relief rally materialize, potentially invalidating the bearish scenario if crossed with momentum.

For additional context on chart patterns and the potential for sub-$2,000 ETH scenarios, readers can review related analysis that outlines classic patterns suggesting more downside risk for ETH in the near term.

The broader market backdrop remains intricate. A sustained risk-off environment can amplify the impact of on-chain activity like founder sales, while a shift in macro rhetoric or renewed appetite for risk could flip sentiment and alter the short-term trajectory for ETH and other major altcoins. As traders weigh these factors, the next few weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the price stabilizes above critical supports or tests lower targets outlined by the pennant framework.

What to watch next

Observe ETH price action when approaching $1,500: does it hold as support or break lower?
Monitor any further ETH distributions from Kanro and related wallets, and whether remaining holdings (~7,350 ETH) are scheduled for sale.
Track on-chain activity from Arkham Intelligence and Lookonchain for changes in sell tempo and new large transfers.
Watch the price reaction relative to the 20-day EMA near $2,085 as a potential bullish trigger if crossed with volume.
Assess broader macro signals and ETF/derivative flows that could influence risk sentiment in the coming weeks.

Sources & verification

Vitalik Buterin’s Jan. 30 statement about selling 16,384 ETH via Kanro to fund ecosystem work.
Arkham Intelligence on-chain tracking of approximately 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave.
Lookonchain commentary noting accelerated ETH sales in February.
Historical references to May 2021 and Nov. 2021 large ETH transfers and subsequent price movements.
Related analysis: Ethereum price chart patterns indicating sub-$2K scenarios.

ETH bears eyes sub-$1,500 test as pennant breakdown deepens

Ethereum’s Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) remains in focus as the coin tests a critical support band near $1,500, with a bear pennant breakdown shaping the near-term risk-reward. A fresh wave of selling pressure emerged after the price slipped to around $1,850 amid tariff-related jitters and a broader de-risking environment. The breakdown has been underscored by rising trading volumes, suggesting that market participants are stepping in with conviction behind the move. The immediate downside target—derived from the pennant’s height—points toward roughly $1,475 by late February or early March, a level that also aligns with the psychological trap of the $1,500 mark.

For bulls, the key denominator is not just the price but the dynamics of support and momentum. Reclaiming the pennant’s lower boundary would be a first sign of stability, but a sustained rally above the 20-day exponential moving average, currently near $2,085, would be required to invalidate the bearish outlook. Until such a reversal pattern emerges, the market faces a test of the lower bound, with the pattern’s traditional objective offering a plausible path toward a deeper correction.

On-chain developments have amplified the narrative. Vitalik Buterin has signaled ongoing ETH liquidations to support long-term ecosystem initiatives, with 16,384 ETH slated for withdrawal via Kanro as part of a broader “mild austerity” posture by the Ethereum Foundation. Independent trackers have observed ongoing distributions—roughly 9,000 ETH sold since early February and a notable 3,500 ETH withdrawal from Aave—raising questions about the role of founder-level supply in the current price action. The market should not ignore these signals, especially given the historical context where large, founder-controlled transfers have coincided with meaningful price moves.

Beyond the mechanics of the price chart and on-chain activity, investors should consider the broader ecosystem implications. If ETH continues to see elevated selling from founder addresses, there could be a persistent overhang that slows upside attempts and makes any rebound more fragile. Conversely, any signs of demand returning—whether from improved macro sentiment, higher risk appetite, or supportive on-chain activity—could reawaken buyers and target the key resistance around $2,000 and beyond. The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether the bears maintain control or a stabilization forms that could reframe Ethereum’s path in the near term.

Related: Ethereum price: Classic chart pattern puts sub-$2K ETH in focus