Abu Dhabi, 12 January 2026 – Global oil markets have remained relatively steady despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela, with crude prices continuing to trade within a narrow range.
While Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, decades of mismanagement, underinvestment and international sanctions have significantly curtailed its production capacity. As a result, the country currently contributes only a marginal share to global oil supply.

Commenting on the situation, Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said:
“Venezuela’s current oil output, now below 500,000 barrels per day, represents less than 1% of global supply. At these levels, its production has little influence on global oil prices, especially when compared to historical peaks of more than 3 million barrels per day.”

North added that even if recent diplomatic negotiations lead to an easing of restrictions and allow additional Venezuelan oil to return to the market, the impact would be limited in the near term.

“Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector would require years and billions of dollars in investment before it could meaningfully affect global supply balances. In fact, over the medium to long term, additional supply from such large reserves could increase downside pressure on oil prices rather than drive them higher, particularly in an already well-supplied market.”

Despite ongoing political uncertainty, oil markets have largely shrugged off geopolitical noise. Global supply conditions remain comfortable, supported by healthy inventory levels and OPEC+ maintaining stable production, which has helped keep price volatility in check.

With oil prices hovering around the USD $60 level, motorists are unlikely to see any sudden increase in fuel prices driven by current geopolitical developments.

“At this stage, markets are reacting far more to supply data than to political drama,” North explained. “In the UAE, fuel prices are adjusted monthly based on international benchmarks such as Brent crude and local distribution costs, meaning short-term geopolitical tensions rarely translate into immediate price changes at the pump.”

As a result, barring any significant disruption to global supply, oil prices are expected to remain driven by fundamentals rather than headlines in the near term.

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