War Triggers Risk-Off in Bitcoin and Stocks as Traders Pull Back

Bitcoin started the week buoyant but quickly pared gains as a broad risk-off mood took hold across markets. The flagship cryptocurrency dipped about 5% as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and gold trended lower, while crude oil surged roughly 7.3% and remained up about 53% since the conflict in the Middle East escalated on Feb. 28. The scale of the move points to a coordinated capital reallocation as traders reassess risk in a geopolitically tense environment.

Analysts frame the move as part of a wider cycle where liquidity, inflation dynamics and headline risk interact in ways that can stretch even established markets. The evolving backdrop—tied to the ongoing conflict in the region—has traders recalibrating exposures across traditional assets and crypto-linked vehicles alike.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin trades down near 5% as major risk assets retreat; oil climbs about 7.3%, underscoring a broad bid for energy and a shift in risk appetite since the Feb. 28 escalation.
• The Kobeissi Letter reports a combined $64 billion outflow from the SPY and QQQ ETFs over the last three months, the largest on record and roughly 5% of total assets under management, reversing a prior flow in November.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $253 million in outflows over the past two days, while monthly crypto-spot ETF inflows stay positive at about $1.48 billion—yet cumulative outflows from November through February total around $6.3 billion, signaling a fragile recovery in demand.
• On-chain signals from Glassnode show profit-taking pressures and a market that struggles to absorb realizations, with the net realization flow temporarily surging before BTC slipped back below $70,000. Glassnode cautions that geopolitical uncertainty is compressing demand depth.
• Analysts offer divergent views on the path forward: some recall a Russia-Ukraine-era pattern of a brief rally followed by a sharper downturn, while others warn that a protracted Iran-related conflict could prolong a risk-off regime, with a potential bottom near $55,000 before any meaningful rebound.

Geopolitics, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s price arc

Market participants are watching how geopolitical developments shape liquidity and investor risk tolerance. After an initial uptick, Bitcoin’s price momentum softened as traders weighed the implications of prolonged conflict and rising energy costs. While oil has rallied, broad risk assets have faced a renewed bout of selling, with traders seeking liquidity and hedges in a more uncertain macro environment.

“Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market’s capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.”

Industry observers have highlighted that the pattern mirrors episodes when major geopolitical events interact with liquidity constraints. While BTC showcased some resilience during earlier periods of turmoil, persistent stress on liquidity and energy prices tends to dampen the impulse to chase short-term rebounds, potentially extending the stabilization phase before a sustained rally can take hold.

ETF flows and the uphill climb for crypto exposure

The latest flow data illustrate a bifurcated landscape. On the one hand, there is continued resilience in aggregate crypto-spot ETF inflows for the month, roughly totaling $1.48 billion, signaling ongoing demand for regulated exposure to digital assets. On the other hand, the two-day outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—around $253 million—underscore how capital remains sensitive to macro headlines and risk-off episodes. In the longer horizon, cumulative outflows from November through February tally around $6.3 billion, suggesting that institutional demand for crypto, while positive on a monthly basis, has yet to regain the footing seen in the pre-crisis period.

In a separate but related frame, the Kobeissi Letter highlighted a record outflow sweep from major equity ETFs tracking the broader market—the SPY and QQQ—over the last three months, totaling roughly $64 billion. That figure marks the largest such exodus on record and translates to about 5% of assets under management moving away from those benchmarks, illustrating a broad risk-off shift that also ripples into crypto markets as investors recalibrate holdings across asset classes.

On-chain signals and analyst mood music

On-chain analytics provider Glassnode offered a lens into the day-to-day dynamics underpinning price moves. The firm noted a burst of net realized profit-taking, briefly accelerating to around $17 million per hour on a 24-hour basis, before momentum faded and BTC slipped again below the $70,000 level. Glassnode framed the development as evidence of a market struggling to absorb moderate realizations in the current geopolitical climate.

The analysis captures a broader tension: as risk assets wobble, liquidity becomes more expensive or harder to source, and traders face a squeeze from energy costs and forced selling during stress periods. In such a setup, even modest realizations can ripple through order books, damping price durability and delaying a more decisive rebound.

Different voices on the near-term trajectory

Market commentary in recent days has coalesced around two plausible narratives. One perspective, echoing patterns observed during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, suggests Bitcoin may experience an initial rally before a more pronounced pullback, as risk-off dynamics persist and traders reassess hedges and exposure. The other view centers on the Iran-related dimension of the current conflict: in a social media thread, a trader argued that until the Iran situation is resolved, upside for BTC could remain capped as macro risk-off dominates markets. The analyst suggested a potential bottom around the $55,000 area before a more durable recovery might unfold.

It’s a reminder that the near-term path for Bitcoin remains tethered to a complex mix of geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite. Traders should remain attentive to energy prices, the pace of capital withdrawals from traditional equity ETFs, and shifts in on-chain activity that could offer hints about whether demand depth is gradually returning or staying restrained.

What to watch next

As the conflict continues to shape market sentiment, several threads could inform the next leg for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Oil prices and energy costs will likely influence risk tolerance and macro liquidity. Equity ETF flows—particularly the behavior of SPY and QQQ—offer a useful barometer of institutions’ comfort with taking or avoiding risk. On-chain metrics, including realized profit and loss, will continue to reflect the balance between holders looking to realize gains and new buyers stepping in to absorb selling pressure.

In the immediate term, traders should monitor whether the market stabilizes around key levels or if the risk-off regime intensifies, prolonging a period of consolidation. If liquidity conditions ease and geopolitical headlines move toward resolution, Bitcoin could regain momentum; if not, the market may test lower supports before a more sustainable recovery emerges.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on both macro developments and crypto-specific fund flows, as these two threads remain tightly linked in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.