- XRP is testing key support near $2.75, with potential for an 8–10% decline to $2.50 if bearish momentum persists.
- On-chain data reveals a concentration of strong buyer support around $2.45–$2.55, hinting at a possible rebound zone.
- Market conditions show signs of liquidity compression and are sensitive to upcoming ETF catalyst announcements, which could spark volatility.
XRP (XRP) price action is approaching a pivotal point as it consolidates at the base of a descending triangle—a classic bearish pattern. The altcoin recently hovered near a critical support level at around $2.75, but persistent selling pressure could push the price lower, potentially toward $2.65 or even $2.45. Such a decrease would align with an 8% to 10% correction, overlapping with a daily fair value gap and significant Fibonacci retracement zones (0.50 – 0.618), which could act as liquidity magnets and potential bounce points.
On-chain data and fractal patterns offer insights into XRP’s potential movements
Supporting the technical outlook, Glassnode’s Unrealized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates a significant cluster of buyers between $2.45 and $2.55. This strong on-chain support suggests that if price revisits this zone, buyers are likely to defend it, increasing the chance of a rebound. Historically, XRP has tested the $2.65 support twice this quarter; however, previous fractal cycles imply that a deeper dip into the liquid-heavy fair value gap before a rally remains plausible. These patterns resemble its behavior earlier this year, showing weakness into weekends and a potential retest of lower levels early next week, possibly around $2.50.
While these fractal correlations are compelling, it’s vital to remember they do not guarantee future outcomes. A break above $2.90 could invalidate the bearish scenario and trigger a rally, but current market signals favor a final dip to the $2.50 zone before any sustained recovery.
Liquidity squeeze and ETF developments could lead to increased volatility
Market researcher Sistine Research highlights that XRP has entered its most intense liquidity compression phase since the U.S. elections in November 2024, with the last three phases preceding sharp breakouts. During this tight range, the order book becomes increasingly concentrated, setting the stage for sudden volatility once liquidity is released. Crypto analyst Pelin Ay notes that spot market flows reveal ongoing tension between buyers and sellers. The 90-day spread indicates sellers are still dominant, and a significant upside move will depend on a sizeable shift in trading volume.
Meanwhile, the upcoming XRP ETF decision remains a key event. Franklin Templeton’s ETF application has been delayed until Nov. 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRP Trust ETF saw nearly $38 million in first-day volume. While positive sentiment surrounds these developments, analysts warn that much of the optimism may already be priced in, raising risks of a “sell the news” reaction during the decision.
This convergence of technical, on-chain, and macro factors underscores a cautious yet watchful market atmosphere for XRP traders and investors aiming to navigate the evolving landscape of crypto regulation, blockchain adoption, and DeFi trends.
