Bernstein: Bitcoin Set to Retake $125K by Late 2026, Near Cycle Peak

Wall Street research firm Bernstein is forecasting a rebound in Bitcoin, arguing that the recent selloff could mark the transition away from the current bear phase and toward a new advance driven by institutional and corporate participation.

In a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph, Bernstein expects Bitcoin to retake its 2025 high and push into fresh cycle highs over the next several years, with targets ranging from $125,000 by late 2026 to as high as $500,000 by the end of the decade under a bull case.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover toward $125,000 by late 2026, positioning that level as a milestone tied to the firm’s cycle framework.
• The base case targets $150,000 by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029; the bull case ranges up to $500,000 in 2029.
• Bernstein maintains a longer-term Bitcoin target of roughly $1 million by 2033 in both scenarios.
• The firm links the forecast to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle phases and to the relationship between price and miners’ marginal production costs.
• Bernstein’s view is also intended to support its outlook on Strategy (the largest corporate Bitcoin holder), suggesting stronger conditions could enable further BTC accumulation.

Why Bernstein thinks the downturn is nearing an end

Bernstein’s argument is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. The firm said Bitcoin gained 28% over the preceding 10 days after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound it says could indicate the end of the present bear cycle.

The report also points to changes in the market’s participant mix. Bernstein said institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers have been playing a larger role, which it argues has provided greater downside support than in earlier cycles. As a result, it cited a smaller drawdown than the roughly 75% to 90% declines seen in previous turnarounds.

For investors, that matters because the cycle thesis implies the timing and character of drawdowns may not repeat identically. Bernstein is not only forecasting higher prices—it is also asserting that the depth of weakness may be structurally different when large, persistent buyers are part of the backdrop.

Cycle-based targets: from $125,000 to as high as $500,000

Bernstein’s pricing model is built on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cadence, which the firm ties to the halving event that reduces the amount of new BTC awarded to miners approximately every four years.

In its framework, each cycle is split into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation. Bernstein then estimates likely price levels across those phases by comparing Bitcoin’s market pricing to the estimated marginal cost of producing new coins—specifically, the cost for the least efficient miners to mine Bitcoin.

Under the base case, Bernstein expects:

• Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by late 2026
• $150,000 by mid-2027
• about $300,000 at a cycle peak in 2029

Under the bull case, the firm raises the targets to:

• $200,000 by mid-2027
• $500,000 at a cycle peak in 2029

Bernstein also maintained a long-term target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

How marginal production costs are folded into the forecast

Central to Bernstein’s approach is an assumption about the “price-to-marginal cost multiple,” meaning how many times Bitcoin’s price trades relative to miners’ estimated marginal production costs.

The firm said it expects that multiple to behave similarly to previous four-year cycles. In its base-case path, Bernstein projected the multiple falling from 1.4 times at a 2025 peak around $125,000 to roughly 1.25 times at a projected 2029 peak around $300,000, and to about 1.2 times by the $1 million mark in 2033.

This is a key nuance for readers: the forecast doesn’t rely only on generic “cycle hype” or momentum. It attempts to formalize the relationship between network economics and market pricing, which—if the assumptions hold—can help explain why the firm expects higher peaks even as valuation multiples compress over time.

Still, that compression is an assumption. Traders and long-term holders watching this thesis may want to track whether market conditions allow marginal-cost dynamics to remain a meaningful reference point, especially if demand growth, regulatory changes, or changes in miner behavior alter cost structures.

Strategy’s potential to buy more Bitcoin if prices firm up

Bernstein’s report also ties its Bitcoin recovery expectations to Strategy, describing a scenario in which continued strength could improve conditions for additional BTC purchases.

The firm noted that Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, representing about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating on the company but adjusted its MSTR price target down to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated view of the Bitcoin cycle.

Bernstein said that if Bitcoin stays strong—and if Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock recovers to around $100 (STRC was reported at $97.15 on Tuesday)—the firm believes Strategy could “go kinetic again” with additional Bitcoin buying. Bernstein pointed to a selloff of about 7,000 BTC in 2026 as part of its broader framework.

At the same time, Bernstein’s view is not only about upside. The report referenced analysis from Regime Intelligence arguing that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less threatened by a market crash than by a prolonged loss of capital-market access. That risk, Regime Intelligence said, could impair Strategy’s ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.

Put differently, Bernstein is effectively forecasting that the next leg up could improve Strategy’s operational flexibility—but that access to funding channels could still determine how aggressively corporate buyers add to their holdings.

What to watch next

Bernstein’s model puts major milestones—$125,000 in late 2026 and substantially higher cycle targets later—at the center of its thesis. Investors should watch whether Bitcoin’s rebound broadens into sustained strength rather than a short-lived rally, and whether corporate buyers like Strategy can continue adding BTC without being constrained by financing conditions and dilution pressures.