Bitcoin Analysis Points to Strong Rally as Dormant “Old Coins” Stay Inactive

Bitcoin’s onchain data is starting to align with the early phases of another potential bull run, according to analysis from CryptoQuant and research from Galaxy Digital. The key signal: long-term holders—especially coins that haven’t moved for at least 18 months—are showing less onchain activity, a shift that historically has preceded sustained upside.

CryptoQuant reports that the share of Bitcoin’s realized cap tied to UTXOs dormant for 18 months or longer has eased since mid-September. After peaking at 26.98% on Sept. 16—the highest level since mid-November 2024—the figure declined to 26.59% as this older cohort gradually reduced spending activity.

Key takeaways

• CryptoQuant shows the realized-cap share of 18-month-plus dormant BTC moved from 26.98% (Sept. 16) down to 26.59%, signaling a modest drop in long-term onchain activity.
• CryptoQuant links similar UTXO-age dynamics to the run-up that historically followed prior Bitcoin bull market starts.
• Coins last active at least five years ago account for roughly 34,000 BTC per month in onchain volume in 2026—about half of 2024 levels, per Galaxy Digital.
• Galaxy Digital characterizes 2026’s bear market drawdown versus all-time highs as the shallowest on record, with a maximum drop of -53%.
• The latest setup still looks early: CryptoQuant says the trend reversal remains modest and may reflect only the beginning of more bullish conditions.

Why dormant-coin data is being watched

CryptoQuant’s signal centers on realized cap by UTXO age bands—an onchain measure that breaks down Bitcoin’s realized value according to when coins last moved. Specifically, it tracks the proportion of realized cap associated with coins that have been dormant for at least 18 months.

In its analysis, CryptoQuant argues that when the network-wide proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months rises and then begins to decline, a strong rally has typically followed. The firm emphasized that this pattern has historically repeated, with the “rise then decline” transition marking an inflection point.

Onchain behavior can be interpreted as an investor stance. When long-term holders reduce spending, it often reflects a decision to hold rather than sell—potentially because investors believe maintaining exposure is more profitable over time than realizing gains during a downturn.

CryptoQuant also notes that the current change is not dramatic. The reversal in the UTXO-age activity trend remains “modest,” suggesting the market may be witnessing the start of a shift rather than the full confirmation of a new cycle.

CryptoQuant said the market appears to have shifted into a bullish cycle, but that the signal still looks like it is in its “early stages,” where the bullish conditions have not yet fully taken shape.

From historical bull-market patterns to today’s timing

The most notable data point in the current setup comes from Sept. 16, when the 18-month-plus cohort’s share of realized cap reached 26.98%—the highest level since mid-November 2024. Since then, CryptoQuant records a gradual decrease to 26.59%, indicating reduced activity among long-term holders tied to this cohort.

This is significant because CryptoQuant’s model treats the turning point—where long-dormant coins start to spend less—as a cue that the selling pressure from older holders may be fading. The underlying implication is that the market could be moving away from a phase dominated by profit-taking and toward one where supply constraints become more supportive of price.

Still, CryptoQuant’s own framing is cautious. It repeatedly characterizes the current evidence as early, which matters for investors because the difference between early-cycle signals and confirmed cycle transitions often shows up in volatility and timing risk. Traders may interpret the onchain trend as a backdrop that favors dips, while long-term holders may view it as confirmation that the market is not seeing sustained distribution from entrenched holders.

What cost-basis distribution suggests about the current bear phase

CryptoQuant’s broader onchain context also points to how different UTXO-age cohorts are positioned relative to their cost basis. The analysis notes that among long-term holders, only the 18-month-to-two-year cohort is currently in net loss, with a cost basis figure cited at $93,193.

By contrast, older cohorts—those outside that 18-month-to-two-year window—are described as remaining in aggregate profit. CryptoQuant adds that 2026 stands out as the first bear market in which price has stayed above the 2-3-year cohort’s cost basis.

This matters because it suggests a less severe reset than what typical bear markets can deliver. If major holder cohorts remain profitable, the incentive to capitulate can be reduced—even when price remains below previous highs.

CryptoQuant’s discussion also ties into Galaxy Digital’s characterization of the current downturn. In a report released last week, Galaxy Digital described 2026’s bear market as the shallowest on record, stating a maximum drawdown versus all-time highs of -53%.

Old-coin supply dynamics: less movement, tighter liquidity

Galaxy Digital’s research adds another layer to the onchain story by focusing on Bitcoin held for five years or more. According to the report, these long-dormant coins were responsible for a supply glut that helped cap price upside around $126,200—at least in the view laid out by Galaxy.

The same coins, however, are now also part of the case for a more constructive long-term outlook. Galaxy writes that coins unmoved for five years or more moved at 67,000 BTC per month in 2024 and 47,000 in 2025, totaling 1.11 million BTC since October 2024. The report further claims that much of that supply was absorbed by spot ETFs and BTC digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.

In 2026, Galaxy reports that the five-year-plus cohort’s average monthly supply has fallen to about 34,000 BTC—roughly half of 2024’s level. For market participants, that reduction in long-dormant supply can matter because it implies fewer coins hitting the market from the most entrenched segment of holders.

In other words, while long-term holders are still contributing some movement, the pace appears to be slowing. That aligns with the broader thesis that the market may be transitioning away from distribution-heavy conditions toward a phase where liquidity dynamics become more supportive.

Investors and traders will likely watch two things next: whether the 18-month-plus realized-cap share continues its decline from the late-September peak (confirming the early-cycle pattern CryptoQuant highlights), and whether five-year-plus supply remains suppressed around the levels Galaxy cites. If those trends persist, they could further strengthen the argument that a new phase is starting—though both analysts stress that the current signal is only at the beginning.