Bitcoin at 3-month high; analysts warn profit-taking may surge

Bitcoin advanced to a fresh three-month high, even as on-chain metrics signal a growing wave of profit-taking among short-term holders. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno highlighted a notable distribution event on Monday, with holders realizing 14,600 BTC in profits — roughly $1.1 billion — in the wake of Bitcoin’s April rally. The move comes as BTC and broader risk assets attempt to extend a recent uptrend after a challenging start to the year.

Moreno pointed to the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), an indicator tracking profit-taking by wallets that have been dormant for less than 155 days. The metric rose above 1, a signal that those newly moved coins were being realized at a profit. He also noted that the 30-day rolling window shows more than 20,000 BTC in net profits realized, the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, following a stretch of losses in February and March that pushed net losses to as high as 398,000 BTC. While profit-taking has intensified, Moreno cautioned that demand has not kept pace, leaving Bitcoin in a broader bear market even as the price trades higher.

Bitcoin holders’ realized profits spike after the April rally. Source: CryptoQuant

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin hit a three-month high as on-chain metrics show a surge in profit-taking, including 14,600 BTC realized profits on Monday (~$1.1 billion).
• The STH-SOPR metric moved above 1, signaling active profit-taking among short-term holders; the 30-day window shows over 20,000 BTC in net profits realized, the first positive reading since late 2025.
• Bitcoin-focused ETF inflows remain robust—four days of positive inflows this week push weekly gains over $1 billion, though a Friday outflow of about $268.5 million trimmed some of the week’s momentum.
• Analysts remain divided on whether BTC has bottomed or if the bear market will deepen, with some forecasting a mid-2026 bottom and others warning that momentum could stall without stronger demand.

On-chain signals and the price narrative

The latest on-chain signals underscore a familiar tension in a market that has endured a protracted downcycle. Realized profit spikes often accompany bear-market rallies or sideways action, and the current pattern appears consistent with a market that lacks conviction among buyers despite a rising price. While the short-term holder cohort is realizing gains, the broader demand side has yet to accelerate meaningfully, leaving the price path susceptible to shifts in liquidity and macro sentiment.

The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio signals that short-term holders are realizing profits. Source: CryptoQuant

ETF inflows show continued institutional interest, but sentiment remains mixed

Investor appetite for Bitcoin exposure via exchange-traded funds remains resilient. Data from Farside shows a continuation of positive ETF inflows for four consecutive days this week, contributing to weekly inflows surpassing $1 billion. However, the week ended with a Friday outflow of approximately $268.5 million, illustrating how liquidity flows can ebb even amid broader buying interest.

Analysts remain divided on whether the market has found a floor. Some market observers argue that the bear-market dynamics persist until demand strengthens across both retail and institutional channels. Others see the recent resilience as a signal that a longer-term bottom could be forming, albeit with considerable uncertainty about the trajectory in the near term.

Context from current coverage shows a broader discussion among traders about whether Bitcoin is in a bear-market rally or entering a new cycle. For example, veteran traders have offered divergent views on the path to mid-2026 and beyond, with forecasts ranging from modest recoveries to more skeptical assessments about the likelihood of a rapid ascent back toward previous highs. Related analyses continue to emphasize the gap between on-chain profit realization and actual buying demand as a critical factor shaping near-term moves.

In related perspective pieces, industry voices have mulled whether BTC could reassert bullish momentum in 2026, with opinions spanning a potential bottom around mid-year to scenarios where a sustained push toward higher levels remains contingent on broader market catalysts. For readers seeking a broader commentary, Cointelegraph has highlighted the ongoing debate among traders about whether BTC is bottoming or entering a longer bear-market phase, alongside coverage of market cycles and sentiment indicators.

Additionally, readers can explore broader market context through specialist commentary and magazines that examine long-term price narratives and veteran trader viewpoints on Bitcoin’s possible trajectories through the coming years.

What to watch next: traders will be paying close attention to whether ETF inflows stay resilient and whether on-chain profit-taking cools as price momentum persists. If demand strengthens alongside price, Bitcoin could extend its recovery; if not, the market may test the lower bounds of the current bear cycle.