Bitcoin has begun to reverse a long-running relative underperformance versus US equities, with on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reporting that BTC outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over a rolling 90-session window.

The change is notable because Glassnode says Bitcoin’s per-session “win rate” has not exceeded 50% since March 2025, meaning most of the past year has featured more sessions where BTC lagged the S&P 500 than it beat it.

Key takeaways

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over the past 90 sessions.
Glassnode says Bitcoin’s session win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025, indicating a prolonged period of relative weakness.
Glassnode adds that Bitcoin’s average per-session gains were “slightly higher” than the S&P 500’s over the same measurement window.
Historical midterm-election patterns highlighted by Capriole suggest S&P 500 returns have tended to be strong after Democratic sweeps under Republican presidents.
TradingView data cited in the report places Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63, with the correlation described as markedly more positive since August.

Glassnode: a neutral split after a prolonged losing streak

In its latest edition of The Week Onchain, Glassnode analyzed BTC/USD versus the S&P 500 on a per-session basis, focusing on a rolling 90-session period that runs through Wednesday.

Over that span, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in half of the measured Wall Street sessions. Glassnode described this as a return to an “even split” after an extended stretch during which Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won.

“The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won,” Glassnode wrote.

Glassnode also said the improvement was paired with slightly stronger average per-session gains for Bitcoin compared with the S&P 500—an incremental detail that matters for interpretation. A win rate hitting 50% tells you about frequency, while average gains help clarify whether those wins are coming with similar magnitude or whether the improvement is simply about avoiding losses.

What the “50% win rate” could imply for BTC traders

For market participants tracking relative performance, a shift in win rate from below 50% to exactly 50% is not the same as a sustained regime change. Still, Glassnode framed the metric as meaningful: if the win rate climbs above 50% and holds there, it would indicate Bitcoin is regaining strength against equities rather than merely stabilizing.

In other words, the improvement changes the baseline. Instead of BTC being less likely than not to beat US stocks in day-to-day trading sessions, the odds are now balanced—at least within the measurement window and assuming the trend continues beyond the current 90-session slice.

Investors and traders may watch for confirmation in subsequent weeks: does Bitcoin move into a win rate that clearly exceeds 50%, or does the metric revert? That distinction can influence how BTC is positioned relative to equity exposure, especially for investors who treat correlations and relative strength as part of portfolio risk management.

Midterm-election history and the equity backdrop

Beyond the crypto-specific metrics, the report connects the equity environment to political developments. It points to historical stock-market behavior following US midterm elections where Democrats won both chambers under a Republican president.

According to data cited from crypto asset manager Capriole Investments, there have been 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding the most recent vote referenced in the article). In that sample, Democrats won both the House and Senate under a Republican president seven times. After those “sweep” outcomes, the S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% over the following three months.

The same dataset reportedly shows even larger average gains over longer windows: 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over a year, based on those historical instances.

The connection is not deterministic—markets can deviate from historical averages—but it provides context for why investors might interpret a political shift as a macro tailwind for equities. The article notes a related observation from Capriole founder Charles Edwards, who commented on the pattern in a post on X.

Correlation with US stocks rises again

The report also brings in correlation analysis. Using data from TradingView, it cites a rolling 20-day correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500 of 0.63.

A correlation of 0.63 indicates a relatively strong positive relationship over that short window—meaning BTC has been moving more in tandem with equities recently than during periods when correlations were weaker or more unstable.

The article adds that this correlation has become “markedly positive” since August, when both crypto and stocks rose alongside an expansion of US Treasury debt buybacks (referenced in earlier coverage connected to that period).

Taken together with Glassnode’s win-rate update, the correlation figure suggests that the relationship between BTC and equities may be tightening again. That matters because it can affect how quickly equity-driven sentiment transmits into crypto markets—particularly for traders who adjust exposure based on whether BTC is behaving more like a risk asset than an idiosyncratic bet.

What to watch next is whether Bitcoin’s relative edge versus the S&P 500 turns from a balanced outcome into a sustained period of outperformance, and whether the BTC–S&P 500 correlation stays elevated rather than cooling off. If both metrics continue in the same direction, the current improvement could be more than a momentary shift; if they reverse, it may simply reflect a temporary alignment of drivers across markets.